Skip to content
← Archive

2026-W33

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-13 08:00:54 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 14% (1 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β€” Strong divergence β€” structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.444 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.07 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +10.6B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Breadth 65% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Copper/Gold -5.4% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” SPY/VIX -0.62 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.17 normal, SPY/TNX -0.29 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.65 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 137 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 6.08 dealer fear
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 18 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +1.2% yen weakening, MOVE 72 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.72% moderate, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence β€” gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline β€” reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β€” DIX below threshold (0.444) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.444 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 10.6B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $772.50 | 50 SMA $747.84 | 200 SMA $703.99 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.85
  • QQQ: $722.84 | 50 SMA $713.88 | 200 SMA $648.96 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.71
  • IWM: $302.89 | 50 SMA $294.24 | 200 SMA $267.73 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $301.04
  • VIX: 14.55 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.682%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $772.50 65.36 55.9 $758.85 Bearish 0.48
QQQ $722.84 55.12 63.0 $708.71 Bearish 0.41
IWM $302.89 60.32 26.8 $301.04 Bearish 0.27

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.55 44.75 53.7 $11.27 Neutral 1.38
TNX 46.82 52.54 38.3 - - -
GLD $404.42 67.62 29.1 $381.12 Bearish 0.13
DXY 99.98 35.09 40.3 - - -
SLV $59.03 65.18 13.8 $53.67 Bearish 0.26

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.444
  • DIX Signal: Neutral
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 10.63B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.98%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.2%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.6%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 376
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.3%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 94.1% 16/17
Health Care 85.0% 34/40
Financials 82.6% 38/46
Industrials 69.4% 34/49
Materials 68.4% 13/19
Consumer Discretionary 62.2% 28/45
Consumer Staples 62.1% 18/29
Communication Services 61.5% 8/13
Technology 56.1% 32/57
Real Estate 25.0% 4/16
Utilities 13.6% 3/22

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $82.58 (5d: +6.8%)
  • Brent Crude: $88.37 | Spread: $5.79
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.8800/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.1600/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.30/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $61.03
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.20

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.623 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.174 normal
SPY / TNX -0.286 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.645 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.09
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,811,741.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,001,505.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.07 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $449.1B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $772.50)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.68%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.98 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.98
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: N/A
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,841B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,836B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,044B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,721B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,391 β–Ό (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Data integrity: volatility_regime is STALE (~3h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -5.4% β€” growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 β€” vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [INFO] Screener: PCTY β€” promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
  • [INFO] Screener: VTRS β€” promotion-ready (3d on list, HIGH conviction 72/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
  • [INFO] Screener: RVTY β€” promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 70/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
  • [INFO] Screener: PLTR β€” promotion-ready (8d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.39%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑1.9% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (23):

[1] New Zealand Dollar: Anchored expectations back RBNZ hikes - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-anchored-expectations-back-rbnz-hikes-bbh-202608131200 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 12:00:19 GMT

[2] Brazil Retail Sales (MoM) above expectations (0.3%) in June: Actual (0.5%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazil-retail-sales-mom-above-expectations-03-in-june-actual-05-202608131200 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 12:00:01 GMT

[3] Euro gains against British Pound despite stronger UK growth data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-gains-against-british-pound-despite-stronger-uk-growth-data-202608131159 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 11:59:27 GMT

[4] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD stands tall at two-month highs above $4,380 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-stands-tall-at-two-month-highs-above-4-380-202608131152 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 11:52:20 GMT

[5] Federal Reserve: Gradual easing path - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-gradual-easing-path-uob-202608131152 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 11:52:02 GMT

[6] European Central Bank: Independence risks rise with debt - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-independence-risks-rise-with-debt-commerzbank-202608131142 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 11:42:28 GMT

[7] Silver slips below $65, but cooling US inflation keeps downside in check URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-slips-below-65-but-cooling-us-inflation-keeps-downside-in-check-202608131141 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 11:41:20 GMT

[8] Riksbank: Rate hike risks rise - Nomura URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/riksbank-rate-hike-risks-rise-nomura-202608131132 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 11:32:50 GMT

[9] British Pound: Solid UK data, limited BoE impact - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-solid-uk-data-limited-boe-impact-bbh-202608131122 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 11:22:17 GMT

[10] British Pound recovers early losses against US Dollar, US PPI data eyed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-recovers-early-losses-against-us-dollar-us-ppi-data-eyed-202608131111 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 11:11:15 GMT

[11] Norwegian Krone: Norges Bank softens hawkish stance - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norwegian-krone-norges-bank-softens-hawkish-stance-td-securities-202608131109 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 11:09:10 GMT

[12] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP remain sluggish amid mixed ETF flows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-remain-sluggish-amid-mixed-etf-flows-202608131100 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 11:00:00 GMT

[13] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Capped below the 50% retracement of July's plunge, at 159.50 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-capped-below-the-50-retracement-of-julys-plunge-at-15950-202608131057 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 10:57:30 GMT

[14] Gold retreats from two-month high as traders await US PPI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-retreats-from-two-month-high-as-traders-await-us-ppi-202608131057 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 10:57:10 GMT

[15] Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC rebounds slightly as consolidation range keeps direction unclear URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-forecast-btc-rebounds-slightly-as-consolidation-range-keeps-direction-unclear-202608131053 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 10:53:29 GMT

[16] The Yen needs a helping hand URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-yen-needs-a-helping-hand-202608131050 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 10:50:32 GMT

[17] Markets take a dive - Again URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/markets-take-a-dive-again-202608131040 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 10:40:49 GMT

[18] PPI could give the Dollar a new catalyst URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ppi-could-give-the-dollar-a-new-catalyst-202608131034 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 10:34:30 GMT

[19] Economists agree: ECB to hike interest rates by 25 bps to 2.5% in September - Reuters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/economists-agree-ecb-to-hike-interest-rates-by-25-bps-to-25-in-september-202608131024 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 10:24:36 GMT

[20] Australian Dollar caught between hawkish RBA, Iran-related inflation risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-caught-between-hawkish-rba-iran-related-inflation-risks-202608131023 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 10:23:22 GMT

[21] Gold outlook: Bulls take a breather under new multi-week high ahead of US economic data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-outlook-bulls-take-a-breather-under-new-multi-week-high-ahead-of-us-economic-data-202608131015 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 10:15:23 GMT

[22] Weltrade officially launches in South Africa under FSCA licence URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/weltrade-officially-launches-in-south-africa-under-fsca-licence-202608131007 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 10:07:08 GMT

[23] Japanese Yen: Bearish bias against US Dollar within higher range - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-bearish-bias-against-us-dollar-within-higher-range-uob-202608131002 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 10:02:13 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] Israel receives major shipment of military vehicles at Haifa Port Time: 2026-08-13T11:10:54.450Z

[2] Watch: Oil pollution threatens Hara forests in southern Iran Time: 2026-08-13T11:05:14.289Z

[3] Iran province suspends plan for sharply higher petrol price Time: 2026-08-13T11:03:13.883Z

[4] Iran seals dozens of businesses in renewed hijab crackdown Time: 2026-08-13T11:01:39.732Z

[5] Iran will act 'more offensively' in any future war, military official says Time: 2026-08-13T10:48:38.535Z

[6] IRGC Quds force commander urges Iraqi factions to keep their weapons - Al Hadath Time: 2026-08-13T09:53:38.306Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 166 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 13 of 60 normal daily β€” 13.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 13.3% of normal (1.4M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 51
  • Oil Prices: Brent $93.26 (+0.56%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 53.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS485 (+870% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost