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2026-W33

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-13 06:00:54 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 14% (1 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β€” Strong divergence β€” structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.444 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.07 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +10.6B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Breadth 65% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy STABLE β€” no macro headwind from oil
growth_expectations πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Copper/Gold -5.4% growth collapse Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive
Correlations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” SPY/VIX -0.62 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.17 normal, SPY/TNX -0.29 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.65 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 14.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 137 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 6.08 dealer fear
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 18 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +1.2% yen weakening, MOVE 72 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.72% moderate, NFCI -0.549 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence β€” gamma, breadth, and energy flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 7 signals refuse to confirm the decline β€” reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 83/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 83 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β€” DIX below threshold (0.444) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX rising to 0.444 (institutional accumulation increasing); GEX positive at 10.6B (vol-suppressing); credit spreads widening (stress building). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 14.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $772.50 | 50 SMA $747.84 | 200 SMA $703.99 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.85
  • QQQ: $722.84 | 50 SMA $713.88 | 200 SMA $648.96 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.71
  • IWM: $302.89 | 50 SMA $294.24 | 200 SMA $267.73 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $301.04
  • VIX: 14.55 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.682%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $772.50 65.36 55.9 $758.85 Bearish 0.48
QQQ $722.84 55.12 63.0 $708.71 Bearish 0.41
IWM $302.89 60.32 26.8 $301.04 Bearish 0.27

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 14.55 44.75 53.7 $11.27 Neutral 1.38
TNX 46.82 52.54 38.3 - - -
GLD $404.42 67.62 29.1 $381.12 Bearish 0.13
DXY 99.98 35.09 40.3 - - -
SLV $59.03 65.18 13.8 $53.67 Bearish 0.26

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.444
  • DIX Signal: Neutral
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 10.63B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.72% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.98%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.48% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 65.2%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 69.6%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 376
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 31.5%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.3%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 94.1% 16/17
Health Care 85.0% 34/40
Financials 82.6% 38/46
Industrials 69.4% 34/49
Materials 68.4% 13/19
Consumer Discretionary 62.2% 28/45
Consumer Staples 62.1% 18/29
Communication Services 61.5% 8/13
Technology 56.1% 32/57
Real Estate 25.0% 4/16
Utilities 13.6% 3/22

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: STABLE
  • WTI Crude: $82.58 (5d: +6.8%)
  • Brent Crude: $88.37 | Spread: $5.79
  • RBOB Gasoline: $2.8800/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.1600/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.30/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $61.03
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.20

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.623 elevated
SPY / DXY -0.174 normal
SPY / TNX -0.286 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.645 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 72.09
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 2,811,741.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,001,505.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.07 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $449.1B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $775 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $772.50)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.68%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.98 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.98
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: N/A | Next FOMC: N/A
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.23% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.27%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.31%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 18/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.7B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,841B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,836B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,044B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,721B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,736 β–Ό (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Data integrity: volatility_regime is STALE (~3h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Copper/Gold 20d RoC at -5.4% β€” growth expectations deteriorating rapidly.
  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] VVIX/VIX ratio at 6.1 β€” vol-of-vol outpacing VIX, uncertainty about uncertainty rising.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [INFO] Screener: PCTY β€” promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
  • [INFO] Screener: VTRS β€” promotion-ready (3d on list, HIGH conviction 72/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
  • [INFO] Screener: RVTY β€” promotion-ready (6d on list, HIGH conviction 70/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).
  • [INFO] Screener: PLTR β€” promotion-ready (8d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 56% (n=276)).

Seasonality

  • Current Month: August
  • Average Return: +0.39%
  • Median Return: +1.41%
  • Hit Rate: 65%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-08-26
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑1.9% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (29):

[1] Ireland Consumer Price Index (YoY) unchanged at 3.4% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-consumer-price-index-yoy-unchanged-at-34-in-july-202608131000 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 10:00:05 GMT

[2] Ireland HICP (MoM) above expectations (0%) in July: Actual (0.1%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-hicp-mom-above-expectations-0-in-july-actual-01-202608131000 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 10:00:05 GMT

[3] Ireland Consumer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous 0.3% to 0.1% in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-consumer-price-index-mom-fell-from-previous-03-to-01-in-july-202608131000 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 10:00:05 GMT

[4] Ireland HICP (YoY) meets forecasts (3.1%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-hicp-yoy-meets-forecasts-31-in-july-202608131000 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 10:00:04 GMT

[5] US Dollar: CPI-driven moves point to near-term stability - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-cpi-driven-moves-point-to-near-term-stability-mufg-202608130952 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:52:12 GMT

[6] Bitcoin: Will patience be rewarded? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-will-patience-be-rewarded-202608130950 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:50:05 GMT

[7] UK GDP growth beats due to services URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/uk-gdp-growth-beats-due-to-services-202608130945 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:45:13 GMT

[8] Brazilian Real: Election risks threaten carry story - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brazilian-real-election-risks-threaten-carry-story-societe-generale-202608130943 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:43:06 GMT

[9] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202608130932 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:32:36 GMT

[10] The US Dollar has recently weakened URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-us-dollar-has-recently-weakened-202608130932 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:32:18 GMT

[11] Is EUR/JPY starting a bear trend? [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/is-eur-jpy-starting-a-bear-trend-video-202608130930 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:30:03 GMT

[12] Euro: Range tests with upside bias against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-range-tests-with-upside-bias-against-us-dollar-ing-202608130929 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:29:35 GMT

[13] Hyperliquid Price Forecast: HYPE eyes 50-day EMA breakout as bullish momentum builds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/hyperliquid-price-forecast-hype-eyes-50-day-ema-breakout-as-bullish-momentum-builds-202608130925 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:25:28 GMT

[14] US Dollar: Inflation outlook and Fed path - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-inflation-outlook-and-fed-path-uob-202608130919 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:19:40 GMT

[15] Swiss Franc holds ground following domestic Producer and Import Prices data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-holds-ground-following-domestic-producer-and-import-prices-data-202608130911 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:11:35 GMT

[16] Japanese Yen: BoJ hike expectations support JPY against US Dollar - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-boj-hike-expectations-support-jpy-against-us-dollar-mufg-202608130910 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:10:23 GMT

[17] Eurozone Industrial Production remains flat in June vs. -0.1% estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-industrial-production-remains-flat-in-june-vs-01-estimates-202608130902 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:02:21 GMT

[18] Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) registered at 0% above expectations (-0.1%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-industrial-production-sa-mom-registered-at-0-above-expectations-01-in-june-202608130900 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:00:04 GMT

[19] Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) came in at 0.1%, above forecasts (-0.8%) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-industrial-production-wda-yoy-came-in-at-01-above-forecasts-08-in-june-202608130900 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:00:02 GMT

[20] Euro bounces off one-week low, holds above 1.1500 vs USD as traders look to US PPI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-bounces-off-one-week-low-holds-above-11500-vs-usd-as-traders-look-to-us-ppi-202608130854 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 08:54:24 GMT

[21] Canadian Dollar: Recovery not just about Oil - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-recovery-not-just-about-oil-commerzbank-202608130848 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 08:48:57 GMT

[22] Euro advances against Canadian Dollar amid ECB hawkish stance, lower oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-advances-against-canadian-dollar-amid-ecb-hawkish-stance-lower-oil-prices-202608130843 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 08:43:13 GMT

[23] NZD/USD Price Forecast: Cooling NZ inflation expectations push Kiwi under pressure URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-cooling-nz-inflation-expectations-push-kiwi-under-pressure-202608130841 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 08:41:03 GMT

[24] US Dollar: Markets remain hawkish after CPI - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-markets-remain-hawkish-after-cpi-ing-202608130837 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 08:37:05 GMT

[25] Is China becoming the contrarian trade of 2026? CHA50 vs US500 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/is-china-becoming-the-contrarian-trade-of-2026-cha50-vs-us500-202608130835 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 08:35:11 GMT

[26] Indian Rupee: RBI seen delaying rate hikes - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-rbi-seen-delaying-rate-hikes-mufg-202608130828 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 08:28:36 GMT

[27] FX daily: Boring CPI, boring August? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fx-daily-boring-cpi-boring-august-202608130817 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 08:17:52 GMT

[28] Australian Dollar: Upside risk intact above 0.7025 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-upside-risk-intact-above-07025-against-us-dollar-uob-202608130811 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 08:11:50 GMT

[29] Week ahead - Summer lull could be tested by geopolitics and central bank expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/week-ahead-summer-lull-could-be-tested-by-geopolitics-and-central-bank-expectations-202608130807 Published: Thu, 13 Aug 2026 08:07:12 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (6):

[1] Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia to set up military mechanisms under defense pact Time: 2026-08-13T09:46:02.974Z

[2] Egypt condemns attacks on commercial ships in Red Sea Time: 2026-08-13T09:42:35.257Z

[3] Two Houthi boats destroyed off Yemen's western coast - Al Arabiya Time: 2026-08-13T09:19:43.918Z

[4] Israeli ships permanently barred from Hormuz, Iran lawmaker says Time: 2026-08-13T09:00:40.724Z

[5] Oil pollution spreads along Qeshm, Hengam coasts - ISNA Time: 2026-08-13T08:05:50.078Z

[6] US risks 'bigger miscalculation' on Strait of Hormuz, Araghchi says Time: 2026-08-13T08:03:40.896Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 166 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β€” 13.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 15.0% of normal (1.6M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 372
  • Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 50.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS450 (+800% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $5.2 billion/day economic cost