Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-11 20:01:22 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 29% (2 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE — Moderate divergence — several structural signals disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	DIX 0.487 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.03 balanced
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +8.3B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 65% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy RISING — oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Copper/Gold -2.2% slowing · real yield 2.40% restrictive
Correlations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	SPY/VIX -0.64 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.21 normal, SPY/TNX -0.30 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.61 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 136 normal · VVIX/VIX 5.95 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 19 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d +1.0% yen weakening, MOVE 78 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose

Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, breadth, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape — 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $83, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.487; GEX positive at 8.3B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $770.79 | 50 SMA $747.56 | 200 SMA $703.48 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.66
QQQ: $718.81 | 50 SMA $714.27 | 200 SMA $648.40 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.48
IWM: $301.07 | 50 SMA $294.03 | 200 SMA $267.44 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.65
VIX: 15.28 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.684%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$770.79	66.78	57.8	$758.66	Neutral	0.99
QQQ	$718.81	54.61	66.2	$708.48	Neutral	1.12
IWM	$301.07	54.69	29.1	$292.65	Neutral	0.69

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.28	43.97	61.6	$10.50	Neutral	1.32
TNX	46.84	56.51	39.9	-	-	-
GLD	$401.00	71.43	33.6	$377.82	Bearish	0.27
DXY	99.82	30.58	35.4	-	-	-
SLV	$58.50	70.78	15.1	$53.37	Bearish	0.29

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.487
DIX Signal: Strong buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.3B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.97%
2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.6%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.0%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.7%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.5%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Financials	85.1%	0/0
Health Care	83.3%	0/0
Communication Services	78.9%	0/0
Energy	78.9%	0/0
Materials	75.0%	0/0
Industrials	68.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	67.8%	0/0
Consumer Staples	61.8%	0/0
Technology	58.5%	0/0
Real Estate	14.3%	0/0
Utilities	13.3%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: RISING
WTI Crude: $83.23 (5d: +10.7%)
Brent Crude: $88.95 | Spread: $5.72
RBOB Gasoline: $2.8900/gal
Heating Oil: $4.2800/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.61/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $60.93
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.07

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.642	elevated
SPY / DXY	-0.211	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.298	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.607	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.92
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 3,721,190.0
0DTE Put Volume: 3,847,102.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.03 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $583.2B
Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $770.79)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.68%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.95 (Normal)
DXY: 99.82
Growth vs Value: 0.93
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.25% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.29%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
Stagflation Risk Score: 19/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,840B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,837B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,046B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,723B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,911 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.607 with energy in RISING — crude shock propagating into equities.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[INFO] DIX at 0.487 — strong dark pool buying activity.
[INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.487, GEX +8.3B, HY OAS 2.70%, breadth 65%.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[INFO] Screener: 605 name(s) exited the program (823 exit event(s)) in the trailing 7d (2026-08-05 → 2026-08-11). Reasons: decayed 693, s2_evicted 118, tier_drop 12. 578 never ripened, 0 unclassified.
[INFO] Screener: PCTY — promotion-ready (5d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=248)).
[INFO] Screener: PLTR — promotion-ready (7d on list, HIGH conviction 67/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=248)).
[INFO] Screener: LSCC — promotion-ready (5d on list, HIGH conviction 67/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=248)).

Seasonality

Current Month: August
Average Return: +0.38%
Median Return: +1.41%
Hit Rate: 65%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Employment Situation (Payrolls): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (↑8.1% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (↓15.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (↑1.9% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (↓4.3% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↓1.6% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑2.2% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (7):

[1] GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Struggles at 50-day SMA with bulls near 215.50 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecast-struggles-at-50-day-sma-with-bulls-near-21550-202608112317 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 23:17:17 GMT

[2] Singapore Dollar: Decline risks assessed against US Dollar - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-dollar-decline-risks-assessed-against-us-dollar-ocbc-202608112307 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 23:07:00 GMT

[3] South Korea Unemployment Rate up to 2.8% in July from previous 2.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-korea-unemployment-rate-up-to-28-in-july-from-previous-27-202608112300 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 23:00:01 GMT

[4] The Australian Dollar goes seven weeks without a central bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-australian-dollar-goes-seven-weeks-without-a-central-bank-202608112244 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 22:44:18 GMT

[5] US yields ease as CPI caution offsets Oil rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-yields-ease-as-cpi-caution-offsets-oil-rally-202608112239 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 22:39:56 GMT

[6] Chinese Yuan: Range trade persists, upside risk against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chinese-yuan-range-trade-persists-upside-risk-against-us-dollar-uob-202608112226 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 22:26:00 GMT

[7] The Japanese Yen gives back half of a record intervention URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-japanese-yen-gives-back-half-of-a-record-intervention-202608112205 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 22:05:53 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (3):

[1] US Navy tests low-cost underwater drone with 2,000-mile range Time: 2026-08-11T23:29:28.954Z

[2] Iran fears its own people more than anything else, former US envoy says Time: 2026-08-11T22:46:14.667Z

[3] Iran proposed 30-day Hormuz corridor before US objections stalled deal Time: 2026-08-11T22:12:20.817Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 164 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily — 3.3% of normal
Throughput: 15.0% of normal (1.5M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 270
Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 30.0x normal
Tanker Rates: WS135 (+170% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost