Finance Analyst Report: 2026-08-11 18:04:04 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 29% (2 aligned, 5 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.487 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.03 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +8.3B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 65% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Copper/Gold -2.2% slowing Β· real yield 2.40% restrictive |
| Correlations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | SPY/VIX -0.64 elevated, SPY/DXY -0.21 normal, SPY/TNX -0.30 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.61 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.3 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 136 normal Β· VVIX/VIX 5.95 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 19 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +1.0% yen weakening, MOVE 78 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.70% benign, NFCI -0.529 loose |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, breadth, and inflation flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 5 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 81/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 5 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $83, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.487; GEX positive at 8.3B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.3 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: BX, PFE, FSLR
- Shorts: WTW, VLY
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 14% (n=240) | 3d 36% (n=240) | 5d 32% (n=240)
- Screener Board Record: 166 closed (hit rate 44%) Β· 150 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $770.79 | 50 SMA $747.56 | 200 SMA $703.48 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.66
- QQQ: $718.81 | 50 SMA $714.27 | 200 SMA $648.40 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $708.48
- IWM: $301.07 | 50 SMA $294.03 | 200 SMA $267.44 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $292.65
- VIX: 15.28 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.684%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $770.79 | 66.78 | 57.8 | $758.66 | Neutral | 0.99 |
| QQQ | $718.81 | 54.61 | 66.2 | $708.48 | Neutral | 1.12 |
| IWM | $301.07 | 54.69 | 29.1 | $292.65 | Neutral | 0.69 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.28 | 43.97 | 61.6 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.32 |
| TNX | 46.84 | 56.51 | 39.9 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $401.00 | 71.43 | 33.6 | $377.82 | Bearish | 0.27 |
| DXY | 99.82 | 30.58 | 35.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.50 | 70.78 | 15.1 | $53.37 | Bearish | 0.29 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.487
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 8.3B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.47% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 72.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 497
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.7%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.5%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Financials | 85.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 83.3% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 78.9% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 75.0% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 68.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 67.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 14.3% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.3% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $83.23 (5d: +10.7%)
- Brent Crude: $88.95 | Spread: $5.72
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.8900/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.2800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $57.61/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $60.93
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.07
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.642 | elevated |
| SPY / DXY | -0.211 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.298 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.607 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.92
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.20 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,721,190.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,847,102.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.03 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $583.2B
- Gamma Call Wall: $780 | Put Wall: $770 (Spot: $770.79)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -27,258 contracts (Z +1.81, as of 2026-08-04)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -11.1% (as of 2026-07-29)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.68%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.95 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.82
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.25% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.29%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 19/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6748.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $907.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $1.2B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,840B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,837B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,046B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,723B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,702 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.607 with energy in RISING β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [INFO] DIX at 0.487 β strong dark pool buying activity.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.487, GEX +8.3B, HY OAS 2.70%, breadth 65%.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [INFO] Screener: 605 name(s) exited the program (823 exit event(s)) in the trailing 7d (2026-08-05 β 2026-08-11). Reasons: decayed 693, s2_evicted 118, tier_drop 12. 578 never ripened, 0 unclassified.
- [INFO] Screener: PCTY β promotion-ready (5d on list, HIGH conviction 68/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=248)).
- [INFO] Screener: PLTR β promotion-ready (7d on list, HIGH conviction 67/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=248)).
- [INFO] Screener: LSCC β promotion-ready (5d on list, HIGH conviction 67/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated pead_drift hit-rate 54% (n=248)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: August
- Average Return: +0.38%
- Median Return: +1.41%
- Hit Rate: 65%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-09-10
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β8.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.46 (β15.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.71 (β1.9% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.00 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.75 (β4.3% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β1.6% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β2.2% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (4):
[1] Indonesian Rupiah: BI succession supports IDR against US Dollar - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-bi-succession-supports-idr-against-us-dollar-ocbc-202608112141 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 21:41:00 GMT
[2] Mexican Peso hits 25-month high as US CPI lurks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexican-peso-hits-25-month-high-as-peso-eyes-1700-as-us-cpi-lurks-202608112119 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 21:19:46 GMT
[3] Singapore: AI-driven growth supports MAS outlook - Standard Chartered URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-ai-driven-growth-supports-mas-outlook-standard-chartered-202608112112 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 21:12:00 GMT
[4] British Pound Sterling needs a fourth dissenter URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-sterling-needs-a-fourth-dissenter-202608112106 Published: Tue, 11 Aug 2026 21:06:31 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Four crew killed in Houthi attack on Red Sea cargo ship - Reuters Time: 2026-08-11T21:27:36.810Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 164 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 3.1% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 270
- Oil Prices: Brent $88.90 (-8.30%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS175 (+250% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost