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2026-W30

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-24 06:01:09 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β€” Strong divergence β€” structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.470 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.19 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +2.7B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Breadth 60% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +3.9% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.37% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.59 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.60 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 18.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.46 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 20 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.9% stable, MOVE 80 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.68% benign, NFCI -0.552 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence β€” gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β€” reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 74/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $92, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.470; GEX positive at 2.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $738.52 | 50 SMA $745.08 | 200 SMA $697.86 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $744.7
  • QQQ: $693.30 | 50 SMA $719.17 | 200 SMA $642.35 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.94
  • IWM: $291.72 | 50 SMA $290.88 | 200 SMA $264.20 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.35
  • VIX: 18.70 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.703%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $738.52 51.52 42.0 $744.70 Bearish 3.67
QQQ $693.30 41.43 64.4 $695.94 Bearish 2.82
IWM $291.72 40.38 0.0 $295.35 Bearish 3.78

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 18.70 51.94 33.8 $10.52 Neutral 0.65
TNX 47.03 70.78 32.9 - - -
GLD $371.37 56.83 30.1 $366.68 Neutral 1.02
DXY 101.43 60.82 13.3 - - -
SLV $52.07 51.04 20.4 $35.98 Neutral 1.04

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.47
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.66B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.68% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.96%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 60.0%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 65.0%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 30.7%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Utilities 96.7% 0/0
Energy 84.2% 0/0
Financials 83.6% 0/0
Health Care 72.2% 0/0
Real Estate 71.4% 0/0
Industrials 68.7% 0/0
Consumer Staples 58.8% 0/0
Technology 33.8% 0/0
Materials 33.3% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 30.5% 0/0
Communication Services 30.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $92.36 (5d: +12.0%)
  • Brent Crude: $100.55 | Spread: $8.19
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.3200/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.2500/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.10/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $59.38
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.61

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.917 normal
SPY / DXY -0.59 elevated
SPY / TNX -0.394 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.603 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 80.08
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 4,038,321.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,787,927.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.19 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $651.5B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $738.52)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.70%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
  • DXY: 101.43
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.30% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.9B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,917B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,774B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,903B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,594B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,072 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~58h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~34h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~34h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 5/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β€” structural repricing risk elevated.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.470, GEX +2.7B, HY OAS 2.68%, breadth 60%.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $139.49 (vs 20d avg 115.34, +2.3Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).

Seasonality

  • Current Month: July
  • Average Return: +2.48%
  • Median Return: +2.28%
  • Hit Rate: 75%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.32 (↑17.8% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.55 (↑1.3% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (22):

[1] US S&P Global PMI expected to show steady business growth in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-sp-global-pmi-expected-to-show-steady-business-growth-in-july-202607241000 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 10:00:00 GMT

[2] More tariffs, more Middle East strikes and more AI capex worries URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/more-tariffs-more-middle-east-strikes-and-more-ai-capex-worries-202607240958 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 09:58:13 GMT

[3] Turkish Lira: Tight CBRT funding offers marginal support - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkish-lira-tight-cbrt-funding-offers-marginal-support-commerzbank-202607240944 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 09:44:25 GMT

[4] Euro holds steady vs British Pound after stronger Eurozone, UK data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-steady-vs-british-pound-after-stronger-eurozone-uk-data-202607240934 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 09:34:18 GMT

[5] Week ahead - Fed, BoE and BoJ face inflation test as markets reprice interest rate paths URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/week-ahead-fed-boe-and-boj-face-inflation-test-as-markets-reprice-interest-rate-paths-202607240932 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 09:32:08 GMT

[6] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607240931 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 09:31:38 GMT

[7] Crypto shrugs off a stronger Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-shrugs-off-a-stronger-dollar-202607240926 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 09:26:21 GMT

[8] US Dollar: Fed expectations keep upside in focus - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fed-expectations-keep-upside-in-focus-ing-202607240923 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 09:23:43 GMT

[9] Silver tracks industrial participation as manufacturing expectations stabilize URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/silver-tracks-industrial-participation-as-manufacturing-expectations-stabilize-202607240911 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 09:11:40 GMT

[10] GBP/USD - Sell trade idea explained [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gbp-usd-sell-trade-idea-explained-video-202607240908 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 09:08:15 GMT

[11] Japanese Yen remains pinned near 40-year low as Fed-BoJ rate gap keeps carry trade active URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-remains-pinned-near-40-year-low-as-fed-boj-rate-gap-keeps-carry-trade-active-202607240906 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 09:06:08 GMT

[12] USD/JPY breaks records: Nothing slows the Yen's decline URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-jpy-breaks-records-nothing-slows-the-yens-decline-202607240902 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 09:02:39 GMT

[13] Zcash Price Forecast: ZEC tests $500 threshold amid risks of a deeper correction URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/zcash-price-forecast-zec-tests-500-threshold-amid-risks-of-a-deeper-correction-202607240900 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 09:00:05 GMT

[14] Euro: Rate support seen fading gradually against US Dollar - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-rate-support-seen-fading-gradually-against-us-dollar-mufg-202607240852 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 08:52:55 GMT

[15] Market turns uneasy with latest developments URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/market-turns-uneasy-with-latest-developments-202607240846 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 08:46:37 GMT

[16] UK S&P Global Services PMI returns to growth in July, arrives at 51.8 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uk-sp-global-services-pmi-returns-to-growth-in-july-arrives-at-518-202607240836 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 08:36:28 GMT

[17] South African Rand: SARB surprise weighs against US Dollar - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-african-rand-sarb-surprise-weighs-against-us-dollar-commerzbank-202607240833 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 08:33:52 GMT

[18] Euro remains capped below 1.1400 despite bright Eurozone preliminary PMIs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-capped-below-11400-despite-bright-eurozone-preliminary-pmis-202607240832 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 08:32:27 GMT

[19] Bitcoin faces $69,000 test as ETF inflows meet professional caution URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-faces-69-000-test-as-etf-inflows-meet-professional-caution-202607240819 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 08:19:55 GMT

[20] Gold: Oil-led inflation fears cap recovery - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-oil-led-inflation-fears-cap-recovery-ing-202607240812 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 08:12:55 GMT

[21] United States Dollar Index Price Forecast: Pullbacks could be bought into near 101.00 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-price-forecast-pullbacks-could-be-bought-into-near-10100-202607240810 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 08:10:26 GMT

[22] Eurozone flash Manufacturing PMI rises surprisingly faster-than-estimates to 52.0 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-flash-manufacturing-pmi-rises-surprisingly-faster-than-estimates-to-520-202607240807 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 08:07:17 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (7):

[1] IRGC warns people to stay away from locations housing US troops Time: 2026-07-24T09:55:41.310Z

[2] CafΓ©s close, tolerance ends: Iran's post-war shift on compulsory hijab Time: 2026-07-24T09:40:28.602Z

[3] Video: US strikes Iranian military targets for 13th night Time: 2026-07-24T09:01:12.370Z

[4] IRGC says it struck Amazon data center in Bahrain again Time: 2026-07-24T08:59:27.797Z

[5] Video: Explosions rock Iran's Bandar Abbas Time: 2026-07-24T08:28:00.000Z

[6] Iranian army says it struck three US bases in Kuwait with drones Time: 2026-07-24T08:13:56.577Z

[BREAKING] [7] IRGC says it struck US base in Kuwait, causing casualties Time: 2026-07-24T08:09:42.306Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 146 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily β€” 25.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 19.4% of normal (2.0M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 0
  • Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 50.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS300 (+500% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost