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2026-W30

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-24 08:01:31 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β€” Strong divergence β€” structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.470 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.19 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +2.7B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Breadth 60% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +3.9% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.37% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.59 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.60 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 18.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.46 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 20 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.9% stable, MOVE 80 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.68% benign, NFCI -0.552 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence β€” gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β€” reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 74/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $92, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.470; GEX positive at 2.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $738.52 | 50 SMA $745.08 | 200 SMA $697.86 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $744.7
  • QQQ: $693.30 | 50 SMA $719.17 | 200 SMA $642.35 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.94
  • IWM: $291.72 | 50 SMA $290.88 | 200 SMA $264.20 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.35
  • VIX: 18.70 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.703%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $738.52 51.52 42.0 $744.70 Bearish 3.67
QQQ $693.30 41.43 64.4 $695.94 Bearish 2.82
IWM $291.72 40.38 0.0 $295.35 Bearish 3.78

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 18.70 51.94 33.8 $10.52 Neutral 0.65
TNX 47.03 70.78 32.9 - - -
GLD $371.37 56.83 30.1 $366.68 Neutral 1.02
DXY 101.43 60.82 13.3 - - -
SLV $52.07 51.04 20.4 $35.98 Neutral 1.04

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.47
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.66B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.68% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.96%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 60.0%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 65.0%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 30.7%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Utilities 96.7% 0/0
Energy 84.2% 0/0
Financials 83.6% 0/0
Health Care 72.2% 0/0
Real Estate 71.4% 0/0
Industrials 68.7% 0/0
Consumer Staples 58.8% 0/0
Technology 33.8% 0/0
Materials 33.3% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 30.5% 0/0
Communication Services 30.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $92.36 (5d: +12.0%)
  • Brent Crude: $100.55 | Spread: $8.19
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.3200/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.2500/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.10/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $59.38
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.61

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.917 normal
SPY / DXY -0.59 elevated
SPY / TNX -0.394 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.603 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 80.08
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 4,038,321.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,787,927.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.19 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $651.5B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $745 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $738.52)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.70%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
  • DXY: 101.43
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.30% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.9B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,917B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,774B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,903B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,594B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,008 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 5/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β€” structural repricing risk elevated.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.470, GEX +2.7B, HY OAS 2.68%, breadth 60%.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $139.49 (vs 20d avg 115.34, +2.3Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~58h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~34h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.78) for 9 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: July
  • Average Return: +2.48%
  • Median Return: +2.28%
  • Hit Rate: 75%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.32 (↑17.8% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.55 (↑1.3% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (20):

[1] Mexico Jobless Rate s.a increased to 2.8% in June from previous 2.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-jobless-rate-sa-increased-to-28-in-june-from-previous-27-202607241200 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 12:00:05 GMT

[2] Mexico Jobless Rate above expectations (2.8%) in June: Actual (2.9%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-jobless-rate-above-expectations-28-in-june-actual-29-202607241200 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 12:00:03 GMT

[3] Euro: ECB hawkish but EUR still disadvantaged against US Dollar - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-ecb-hawkish-but-eur-still-disadvantaged-against-us-dollar-ocbc-202607241150 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 11:50:45 GMT

[4] Can Silver reclaim $60 after its latest rebound?
URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/can-silver-reclaim-60-after-its-latest-rebound-202607241143 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 11:43:25 GMT

[5] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Zcash, Bitcoin & Crypto - European Wrap 24 July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-zcash-bitcoin-crypto-european-wrap-24-july-202607241141 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 11:41:14 GMT

[6] FOMC preview: Fed to stay on hold after June's hawkish shift URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/fomc-preview-fed-to-stay-on-hold-after-junes-hawkish-shift-202607241136 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 11:36:31 GMT

[7] Federal Reserve: Holding rates while watching inflation risks - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-holding-rates-while-watching-inflation-risks-commerzbank-202607241135 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 11:35:16 GMT

[8] Gold steadies after sharp drop as traders weigh Fed, Middle East risks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-steadies-after-sharp-drop-as-traders-weigh-fed-middle-east-risks-202607241133 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 11:33:48 GMT

[9] Tech gets whacked, TSLA and GOOG disappoint on AI spend - Oil surges past $100, yields kiss 4.7% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/tech-gets-whacked-tsla-and-goog-disappoint-on-ai-spend-oil-surges-past-100-yields-kiss-47-202607241131 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 11:31:01 GMT

[10] Indian Rupee: Oil surge offsets inflow support - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-oil-surge-offsets-inflow-support-societe-generale-202607241118 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 11:18:19 GMT

[11] Crude's up, markets down URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/crudes-up-markets-down-202607241113 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 11:13:50 GMT

[12] European Central Bank: September hike seen as highly likely - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-september-hike-seen-as-highly-likely-deutsche-bank-202607241108 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 11:08:18 GMT

[13] US tariffs become a structural risk, Fed to keep hike hopes 'alive' URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-tariffs-become-a-structural-risk-fed-to-keep-hike-hopes-alive-202607241107 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 11:07:30 GMT

[14] New Zealand Dollar rebounds but upside remains limited as US Dollar stays supported URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-rebounds-but-upside-remains-limited-as-us-dollar-stays-supported-202607241107 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 11:07:15 GMT

[15] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP pare losses as breakout potential builds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-pare-losses-as-breakout-potential-builds-202607241100 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 11:00:00 GMT

[16] "Still see probability of rate hike higher than hold": ECB's Simkus expresses hawkish bias on rates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/still-see-probability-of-rate-hike-higher-than-hold-ecbs-simkus-expresses-hawkish-bias-on-rates-202607241056 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 10:56:09 GMT

[17] Burnham's tax cuts 'sugarcoat the pill' - further Sterling downside likely URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/burnhams-tax-cuts-sugarcoat-the-pill-further-sterling-downside-likely-202607241052 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 10:52:27 GMT

[18] Iran war raises September ECB hike odds, Euro slips on 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/iran-war-raises-september-ecb-hike-odds-euro-slips-on-buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact-202607241051 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 10:51:04 GMT

[19] Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC holds firm, but the $100 Oil threat could change the game URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-weekly-forecast-btc-holds-firm-but-the-100-oil-threat-could-change-the-game-202607241023 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 10:23:11 GMT

[20] Dollar: Oil leaves the Fed with no choice URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dollar-oil-leaves-the-fed-with-no-choice-202607241015 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 10:15:25 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (10):

[1] Senior cleric says Iran hates negotiating with US Time: 2026-07-24T11:38:54.640Z

[2] Bahrain says air defenses intercepted and destroyed Iranian aerial attacks Time: 2026-07-24T11:23:29.256Z

[3] Ali Khamenei was killed at meeting on protest crackdown - security-linked outlet Time: 2026-07-24T11:12:40.338Z

[4] Video: Explosion hits IRGC naval base on Iran's Caspian coast Time: 2026-07-24T11:11:22.004Z

[5] UK says forces ready after Iran warns over US bombers Time: 2026-07-24T10:53:18.166Z

[BREAKING] [6] Germany limits Tehran embassy services as it urges citizens to leave Iran Time: 2026-07-24T10:38:29.696Z

[7] Video: 'We didn't start this war, but we will finish it' - US senator on Iran Time: 2026-07-24T10:33:29.970Z

[8] Araghchi says US deal was 'best possible agreement,' says public was discouraged by 'lies' Time: 2026-07-24T10:19:42.000Z

[9] Video: Missile trails seen over Tehran and Karaj Time: 2026-07-24T10:09:28.500Z

[10] Iran faces 'honorable defense,' not surrender, against US, senior cleric says Time: 2026-07-24T10:03:53.643Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 146 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily β€” 25.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 25.0% of normal (2.6M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 250
  • Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 33.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS385 (+670% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.5 billion/day economic cost