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2026-W30

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-24 04:01:17 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -1.0% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β€” Strong divergence β€” structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.470 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.19 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +2.7B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Breadth 60% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +3.9% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.37% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.59 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.39 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.60 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 18.7 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.46 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 20 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.9% stable, MOVE 80 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.68% benign, NFCI -0.552 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence β€” gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β€” reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 74/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $92, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.470; GEX positive at 2.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $738.52 | 50 SMA $745.08 | 200 SMA $697.86 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $744.7
  • QQQ: $693.30 | 50 SMA $719.17 | 200 SMA $642.35 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $695.94
  • IWM: $291.72 | 50 SMA $290.88 | 200 SMA $264.20 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.35
  • VIX: 18.70 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.703%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $738.52 51.52 42.0 $744.70 Bearish 3.67
QQQ $693.30 41.43 64.4 $695.94 Bearish 2.82
IWM $291.72 40.38 0.0 $295.35 Bearish 3.78

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 18.70 51.94 33.8 $10.52 Neutral 0.65
TNX 47.03 70.78 32.9 - - -
GLD $371.37 56.83 30.1 $366.68 Neutral 1.02
DXY 101.43 60.82 13.3 - - -
SLV $52.07 51.04 20.4 $35.98 Neutral 1.04

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.47
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.66B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.68% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.96%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.34% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 60.0%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 65.0%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 30.7%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 40.5%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Utilities 96.7% 0/0
Energy 84.2% 0/0
Financials 83.6% 0/0
Health Care 72.2% 0/0
Real Estate 71.4% 0/0
Industrials 68.7% 0/0
Consumer Staples 58.8% 0/0
Technology 33.8% 0/0
Materials 33.3% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 30.5% 0/0
Communication Services 30.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $92.36 (5d: +12.0%)
  • Brent Crude: $100.55 | Spread: $8.19
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.3200/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.2500/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.10/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $59.38
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.61

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.917 normal
SPY / DXY -0.59 elevated
SPY / TNX -0.394 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.603 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 80.08
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 4,038,321.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 4,787,927.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.19 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $651.5B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $738.52)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -12.7% (as of 2026-07-22)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.70%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.90 (Normal)
  • DXY: 101.43
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.30% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6747.4B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $829.6B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.9B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,917B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,774B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,903B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,594B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,447 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [WARNING] Signal-price divergence: 5/9 signals disagree with SPY's bearish trend β€” structural repricing risk elevated.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.470, GEX +2.7B, HY OAS 2.68%, breadth 60%.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $139.49 (vs 20d avg 115.34, +2.3Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: acm_term_premium_10y has printed the same value (0.78) for 9 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 71 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: fa_live_max_pain has printed the same value (735.0) for 17 consecutive trading days β€” publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: July
  • Average Return: +2.48%
  • Median Return: +2.28%
  • Hit Rate: 75%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.90 (↑8.7% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.32 (↑17.8% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.55 (↑1.3% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (26):

[1] Dow Jones futures bounce back as oil cools, though geopolitical risks persist URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-bounce-back-as-oil-cools-though-geopolitical-risks-persist-202607240754 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 07:54:34 GMT

[2] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD edges up above $58.00 as the US Dollar trims gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-edges-up-above-5800-as-the-us-dollar-trims-gains-202607240750 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 07:50:22 GMT

[3] Brent: War premium drives triple-digit prices - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-war-premium-drives-triple-digit-prices-uob-202607240750 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 07:50:19 GMT

[4] Germany's flash Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rises strongly to 52.2 vs. 50.1 estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germanys-flash-manufacturing-pmi-unexpectedly-rises-strongly-to-522-vs-501-estimates-202607240736 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 07:36:33 GMT

[5] Forex Today: New wave of US tariffs, deepening Middle East conflict keep markets on edge URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-new-wave-of-us-tariffs-deepening-middle-east-conflict-keep-markets-on-edge-202607240733 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 07:33:14 GMT

[6] iFX EXPO LATAM evolves into the trading festival Mexico for 2026 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/ifx-expo-latam-evolves-into-the-trading-festival-mexico-for-2026-202607240725 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 07:25:24 GMT

[7] Equities: Oil shock and tech earnings hit equities - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-oil-shock-and-tech-earnings-hit-equities-deutsche-bank-202607240721 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 07:21:59 GMT

[8] Gulf escalation keeps markets risk-off URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gulf-escalation-keeps-markets-risk-off-202607240717 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 07:17:32 GMT

[9] Russian Ruble: CBR seen holding rate despite pressure to cut - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/russian-ruble-cbr-seen-holding-rate-despite-pressure-to-cut-commerzbank-202607240710 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 07:10:30 GMT

[10] British Pound steadies against Japanese Yen following outperformance in UK Retail Sales URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-steadies-against-japanese-yen-following-outperformance-in-uk-retail-sales-202607240706 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 07:06:54 GMT

[11] Dollar Index eyes 102 while JPY pairs break higher [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/dollar-index-eyes-102-while-jpy-pairs-break-higher-video-202607240706 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 07:06:26 GMT

[12] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Softens below 1.4100, but bullish outlook stays intact above key support URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-softens-below-14100-but-bullish-outlook-stays-intact-above-key-support-202607240706 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 07:06:03 GMT

[13] Some losses for the euro after the ECB holds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/some-losses-for-the-euro-after-the-ecb-holds-202607240659 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 06:59:52 GMT

[14] ECB's Kocher: Don't see evidence of second-round effects URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-kocher-dont-see-evidence-of-second-round-effects-202607240655 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 06:55:23 GMT

[15] Euro extends rally against British Pound despite strong UK Retail Sales data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-extends-rally-against-british-pound-despite-strong-uk-retail-sales-data-202607240653 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 06:53:29 GMT

[16] The spender's dilemma URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-spenders-dilemma-202607240653 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 06:53:06 GMT

[17] US Dollar Index: Higher yields and FOMC focus lift DXY - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-higher-yields-and-fomc-focus-lift-dxy-mufg-202607240649 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 06:49:50 GMT

[18] Gold: Oil spike caps rebound and keeps risks two-way - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-oil-spike-caps-rebound-and-keeps-risks-two-way-ocbc-202607240636 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 06:36:24 GMT

[19] British Pound remains depressed near 1.3300 despite upbeat UK Retail Sales data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-remains-depressed-near-13300-despite-upbeat-uk-retail-sales-data-202607240628 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 06:28:25 GMT

[20] Indonesian Rupiah advances as US Dollar struggles despite increasing risk aversion URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indonesian-rupiah-advances-as-us-dollar-struggles-despite-increasing-risk-aversion-202607240628 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 06:28:16 GMT

[21] Brent: Conflict risks keep prices supported - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-conflict-risks-keep-prices-supported-ing-202607240623 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 06:23:49 GMT

[22] Retailers score 'early summer goal' in June as sales rise 1% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/retailers-score-early-summer-goal-in-june-as-sales-rise-1-202607240621 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 06:21:01 GMT

[23] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Surging US bond yields warrant downside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-surging-us-bond-yields-warrant-downside-202607240620 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 06:20:16 GMT

[24] Euro: Weakens despite ECB rate hike signals against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-weakens-despite-ecb-rate-hike-signals-against-us-dollar-uob-202607240615 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 06:15:11 GMT

[25] Dogecoin Price Forecast: DOGE eyes $0.065 after breaking key support level URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/dogecoin-price-forecast-doge-eyes-0065-after-breaking-key-support-level-202607240610 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 06:10:29 GMT

[26] United Kingdom Retail Sales climb 1.0% MoM in June vs. -0.3% expected URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-retail-sales-climb-10-mom-in-june-vs-03-expected-202607240601 Published: Fri, 24 Jul 2026 06:01:09 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (7):

[1] Iran bears biggest economic cost of Hormuz closure Time: 2026-07-24T07:46:28.391Z

[2] Drone crashes near Erbil airport, flights temporarily suspended Time: 2026-07-24T07:45:41.103Z

[3] Iran judiciary chief tells Iraqi PM US should abandon 'bullying' Time: 2026-07-24T07:29:47.508Z

[4] Missile strike damages IRGC naval base near Caspian Sea, official says Time: 2026-07-24T07:23:02.413Z

[5] Iran army commander says US misjudged Iran's military Time: 2026-07-24T07:07:00.704Z

[6] Iran official says US air strike hits Piranshahr near Iraq border Time: 2026-07-24T06:46:33.302Z

[7] Iran says SCO is vital force for multilateralism as global order faces challenges Time: 2026-07-24T06:22:47.283Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 146 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily β€” 17.1% of normal
  • Throughput: 17.1% of normal (1.8M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 280
  • Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 56.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS372 (+644% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost