Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-23 06:01:13 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.490 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.17 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +9.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.2% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.37% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.90 normal, SPY/DXY -0.53 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.32 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.53 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.74 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 76 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.552 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $88, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.490; GEX positive at 9.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $746.03 | 50 SMA $744.88 | 200 SMA $697.47 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $748.05
- QQQ: $703.71 | 50 SMA $719.29 | 200 SMA $641.85 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $707.02
- IWM: $293.34 | 50 SMA $290.69 | 200 SMA $263.95 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $269.8
- VIX: 16.64 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.657%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $746.03 | 51.39 | 42.4 | $748.05 | Neutral | 0.83 |
| QQQ | $703.71 | 38.87 | 64.3 | $707.02 | Neutral | 1.36 |
| IWM | $293.34 | 42.79 | 0.0 | $269.80 | Bearish | 7.19 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.64 | 51.82 | 42.0 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.76 |
| TNX | 46.57 | 72.53 | 37.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $378.07 | 55.33 | 29.4 | $370.94 | Bearish | 0.29 |
| DXY | 101.14 | 45.66 | 15.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.84 | 48.76 | 20.0 | $41.30 | Bearish | 0.29 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.49
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.0B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.36% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 63.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 93.3% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 74.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 73.5% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 67.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 49.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 35.4% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $87.93 (5d: +11.4%)
- Brent Crude: $95.46 | Spread: $7.53
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.61/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.20
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.60
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.897 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.528 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.323 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.528 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.31
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,039,068.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,562,744.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.17 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $493.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $746.03)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.66%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.14
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.30% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,986B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,790B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,921B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,698B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,593 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] DIX at 0.490 β strong dark pool buying activity.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.528 with energy in RISING β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.490, GEX +9.0B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 64%.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $131.68 (vs 20d avg 113.68, +2.0Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~56h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~32h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.54%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (27):
[1] EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Euro trims gains but holds above previous highs at 186.32 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-jpy-price-forecast-euro-trims-gains-but-holds-above-previous-highs-at-18632-202607230959 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:59:01 GMT
[2] Turkish Lira: High carry stays attractive as easing delayed - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkish-lira-high-carry-stays-attractive-as-easing-delayed-ing-202607230958 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:58:04 GMT
[3] Euro focuses on the ECB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/euro-focuses-on-the-ecb-202607230956 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:56:47 GMT
[4] Oil and rates feel the heat of the Iran conflict URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-and-rates-feel-the-heat-of-the-iran-conflict-202607230954 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:54:06 GMT
[5] STARTRADER launches SKHY as SK Hynix makes US market debut URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/startrader-launches-skhy-as-sk-hynix-makes-us-market-debut-202607230949 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:49:58 GMT
[6] European Central Bank: Oil-driven risks to policy path - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-oil-driven-risks-to-policy-path-societe-generale-202607230947 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:47:19 GMT
[7] Australian Dollar: Jobs strength keeps RBA hike priced - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-jobs-strength-keeps-rba-hike-priced-bbh-202607230930 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:30:48 GMT
[8] Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-falls-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607230930 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:30:44 GMT
[9] Gold - Sell trade idea [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-sell-trade-idea-video-202607230930 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:30:34 GMT
[10] Q2 growth in advanced economies: Resilient despite multiple shocks URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/q2-growth-in-advanced-economies-resilient-despite-multiple-shocks-202607230929 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:29:07 GMT
[11] Netflix (NFLX) nearing final wave of correction as earnings pressure continues [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/netflix-nflx-nearing-final-wave-of-correction-as-earnings-pressure-continues-video-202607230925 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:25:38 GMT
[12] Bitcoin and Ethereum have paused their recovery URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-and-ethereum-have-paused-their-recovery-202607230923 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:23:12 GMT
[13] ECB expected to remain on hold today URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/ecb-expected-to-remain-on-hold-today-202607230921 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:21:16 GMT
[14] Euro: ECB seen hiking in September - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-ecb-seen-hiking-in-september-commerzbank-202607230920 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:20:41 GMT
[15] WTI and Brent Crude higher on red sea aggression, XAU/USD and XAG/USD in falling wedges [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/wti-and-brent-crude-higher-on-red-sea-aggression-xau-usd-and-xag-usd-in-falling-wedges-video-202607230913 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:13:42 GMT
[16] Norwegian Krone: Limited upside from Norges Bank flows - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norwegian-krone-limited-upside-from-norges-bank-flows-bny-202607230911 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:11:46 GMT
[17] Burnham's first misstep spells bad news for pound URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/burnhams-first-misstep-spells-bad-news-for-pound-202607230907 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:07:02 GMT
[18] European Central Bank: September hike risk builds - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-september-hike-risk-builds-ing-202607230903 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:03:33 GMT
[19] Brent surges above $97 as US-Iran tensions escalate in gulf URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/brent-surges-above-97-as-us-iran-tensions-escalate-in-gulf-202607230902 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:02:51 GMT
[20] Swiss Franc weakens as safe-haven demand lifts US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-as-safe-haven-demand-lifts-us-dollar-202607230900 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 09:00:20 GMT
[21] Analysts agree: Hawkish ECB expectations are likely to keep Euro supported URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/analysts-agree-hawkish-ecb-expectations-are-likely-to-keep-euro-supported-202607230854 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 08:54:33 GMT
[22] Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC falls as surging Oil prices revive inflation concerns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-btc-falls-as-surging-oil-prices-revive-inflation-concerns-202607230850 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 08:50:07 GMT
[23] Japanese Yen: Energy shock drives weaker currency - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-energy-shock-drives-weaker-currency-mufg-202607230849 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 08:49:22 GMT
[24] Sterling's rally is not built to last URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/sterlings-rally-is-not-built-to-last-202607230847 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 08:47:28 GMT
[25] Asia wrap: Alphabet's capex surge reopens the AI funding question as Oil eyes $100 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/asia-wrap-alphabets-capex-surge-reopens-the-ai-funding-question-as-oil-eyes-100-202607230837 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 08:37:39 GMT
[26] Gold: Rally capped by rate risks - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rally-capped-by-rate-risks-td-securities-202607230834 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 08:34:10 GMT
[27] Dow Jones futures decline on Middle East tensions, massive AI investment concerns URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-decline-on-middle-east-tensions-massive-ai-investment-concerns-202607230833 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 08:33:42 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (9):
[1] Kremlin declines to comment on possible Russian role in Iran drone attacks Time: 2026-07-23T09:40:38.009Z
[2] Oman says working with Saudis, Houthis to revive Yemen peace efforts Time: 2026-07-23T09:35:59.034Z
[3] Bahrain says sirens sound, urges people to seek shelter Time: 2026-07-23T09:30:48.922Z
[BREAKING] [4] Two strikes hit Konarak in southeastern Iran Time: 2026-07-23T09:26:39.836Z
[BREAKING] [5] Iraqi prime minister arrives in Tehran for official visit Time: 2026-07-23T08:50:02.344Z
[6] Rubio says Trump's Iran policy is 'a head for an eye' Time: 2026-07-23T08:35:38.180Z
[7] Video: Explosion hits Iran-Iraq border crossing in southwest Time: 2026-07-23T08:29:20.893Z
[8] Rushdie attacker contacted person in Iran before attack, US prosecutors say Time: 2026-07-23T08:27:53.186Z
[BREAKING] [9] Jordan intercepts four Iranian missiles, six drones Time: 2026-07-23T08:26:13.403Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 145 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 15 of 60 normal daily β 17.0% of normal
- Throughput: 15.1% of normal (1.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 440
- Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS230 (+360% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost