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2026-W30

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-23 08:01:38 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β€” Strong divergence β€” structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.490 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.17 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +9.0B strong suppression
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Breadth 64% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +5.2% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.37% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.90 normal, SPY/DXY -0.53 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.32 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.53 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 16.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.74 dealer stress
Inflation 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Stagflation score 20 β€” low inflation risk
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 76 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.552 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence β€” gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β€” reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $88, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.490; GEX positive at 9.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $746.03 | 50 SMA $744.88 | 200 SMA $697.47 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $748.05
  • QQQ: $703.71 | 50 SMA $719.29 | 200 SMA $641.85 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $707.02
  • IWM: $293.34 | 50 SMA $290.69 | 200 SMA $263.95 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $269.8
  • VIX: 16.64 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.657%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $746.03 51.39 42.4 $748.05 Neutral 0.83
QQQ $703.71 38.87 64.3 $707.02 Neutral 1.36
IWM $293.34 42.79 0.0 $269.80 Bearish 7.19

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 16.64 51.82 42.0 $10.50 Neutral 0.76
TNX 46.57 72.53 37.2 - - -
GLD $378.07 55.33 29.4 $370.94 Bearish 0.29
DXY 101.14 45.66 15.0 - - -
SLV $53.84 48.76 20.0 $41.30 Bearish 0.29

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.49
  • DIX Signal: Strong buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.0B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.97%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.36% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 63.7%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.2%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 31.9%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Utilities 93.3% 0/0
Energy 84.2% 0/0
Financials 82.1% 0/0
Health Care 74.1% 0/0
Consumer Staples 73.5% 0/0
Real Estate 67.9% 0/0
Industrials 62.7% 0/0
Communication Services 50.0% 0/0
Materials 50.0% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 49.2% 0/0
Technology 35.4% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $87.93 (5d: +11.4%)
  • Brent Crude: $95.46 | Spread: $7.53
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.2600/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.0900/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.61/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $59.20
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.60

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.897 normal
SPY / DXY -0.528 elevated
SPY / TNX -0.323 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.528 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.31
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 3,039,068.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 3,562,744.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.17 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $493.4B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $746.03)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
  • Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.66%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
  • DXY: 101.14
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.30% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,986B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,790B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,921B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,698B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,506 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [INFO] DIX at 0.490 β€” strong dark pool buying activity.
  • [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.528 with energy in RISING β€” crude shock propagating into equities.
  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.490, GEX +9.0B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 64%.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $131.68 (vs 20d avg 113.68, +2.0Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β€” systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
  • [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~56h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β€” those surfaces are running on stale input.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach: max=159186B > 102400B, avg=117887B >= 61440B. escalate to Option B (sibling table + zlib compression).
  • [WARNING] SPY (746.11) dropped below ZGL (748.05) β€” expect amplified downside moves.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: July
  • Average Return: +2.54%
  • Median Return: +2.28%
  • Hit Rate: 80%
  • Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
  • Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
  • Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
  • Industrial Production: 2026-08-18

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.1% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (22):

[1] Mexico 1st half-month Inflation came in at 0.07%, below expectations (0.1%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-1st-half-month-inflation-came-in-at-007-below-expectations-01-in-july-202607231200 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 12:00:05 GMT

[2] Mexico 1st half-month Core Inflation meets forecasts (0.16%) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexico-1st-half-month-core-inflation-meets-forecasts-016-in-july-202607231200 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 12:00:04 GMT

[3] Cryptocurrencies Price Prediction: Dogecoin, Worldcoin & Crypto - European Wrap 23 July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-dogecoin-worldcoin-crypto-european-wrap-23-july-202607231159 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:59:50 GMT

[4] Euro: Recovery led by spot demand - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-recovery-led-by-spot-demand-bny-202607231150 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:50:59 GMT

[5] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD pulls back below $4,100 weighed by higher US yields URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-pulls-back-below-4-100-weighed-by-higher-us-yields-202607231146 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:46:17 GMT

[6] Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP trim gains despite resilient ETF inflows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/crypto-today-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-trim-gains-despite-resilient-etf-inflows-202607231140 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:40:10 GMT

[7] US Dollar Index: Upside risks persist as yields climb - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-upside-risks-persist-as-yields-climb-bbh-202607231139 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:39:44 GMT

[8] Yen sold to new 40-year lows, while PBOC sets Dollar's reference rate at a three-year low URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/yen-sold-to-new-40-year-lows-while-pboc-sets-dollars-reference-rate-at-a-three-year-low-202607231135 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:35:35 GMT

[9] Gold falls as Middle East tensions lift Oil prices, Fed rate hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-falls-as-middle-east-tensions-lift-oil-prices-fed-rate-hike-bets-202607231133 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:33:35 GMT

[10] India M3 Money Supply: 12.5% (July 6) vs previous 13% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-m3-money-supply-125-july-6-vs-previous-13-202607231130 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:30:42 GMT

[11] European Central Bank: Hawkish ECB pricing supports Euro - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-hawkish-ecb-pricing-supports-euro-mufg-202607231126 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:26:37 GMT

[12] Worldcoin Price Forecast: WLD steadies as multiple bullish signals line up URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/worldcoin-price-forecast-wld-steadies-as-multiple-bullish-signals-line-up-202607231125 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:25:32 GMT

[13] Today's important trade levels for Gold and Silver [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/todays-important-trade-levels-for-gold-and-silver-video-202607231124 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:24:43 GMT

[14] South African Rand: SARB resolve key for rand - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-african-rand-sarb-resolve-key-for-rand-commerzbank-202607231115 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:15:50 GMT

[15] Downside bias holds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/downside-bias-holds-202607231112 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:12:25 GMT

[16] Dogecoin Price Forecast: DOGE nears yearly low as risk appetite fades URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/dogecoin-price-forecast-doge-nears-yearly-low-as-risk-appetite-fades-202607231110 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:10:28 GMT

[17] Canadian Dollar: Retail sales set to beat consensus - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-retail-sales-set-to-beat-consensus-td-securities-202607231105 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:05:29 GMT

[18] Turkey CBRT Interest Rate Decision in line with forecasts (37%) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-cbrt-interest-rate-decision-in-line-with-forecasts-37-202607231100 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:00:16 GMT

[19] British Pound holds losses below 1.3400 as PM Burnam stokes fiscal worries URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-holds-losses-below-13400-as-pm-burnam-stokes-fiscal-worries-202607231059 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 10:59:58 GMT

[20] BitMEX, the exchange that invented perps, is shutting down URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitmex-the-exchange-that-invented-perps-is-shutting-down-202607231048 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 10:48:52 GMT

[21] EUR/USD recovers as Dollar weakens URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/eur-usd-recovers-as-dollar-weakens-202607231012 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 10:12:32 GMT

[22] Bitcoin ETFs approach $1B in seven-session inflow run URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-etfs-approach-1b-in-seven-session-inflow-run-202607231000 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 10:00:52 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (2):

[1] Iran hardliner echoes Rubio's 'head for an eye' line in swipe at Araghchi Time: 2026-07-23T11:24:50.100Z

[2] Iran, Iraq pledge closer ties as PM visits Tehran Time: 2026-07-23T10:33:46.077Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 145 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 14 of 60 normal daily β€” 23.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 23.5% of normal (2.4M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 440
  • Oil Prices: Brent $86.99 (+2.33%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 33.3x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS108 (+116% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost