Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-23 04:01:23 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.490 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.17 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +9.0B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.2% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.37% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.90 normal, SPY/DXY -0.53 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.32 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.53 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 150 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.74 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.5% stable, MOVE 76 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.552 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 78/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $88, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.490; GEX positive at 9.0B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $746.03 | 50 SMA $744.88 | 200 SMA $697.47 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $748.05
- QQQ: $703.71 | 50 SMA $719.29 | 200 SMA $641.85 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $707.02
- IWM: $293.34 | 50 SMA $290.69 | 200 SMA $263.95 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $269.8
- VIX: 16.64 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.657%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $746.03 | 51.39 | 42.4 | $748.05 | Neutral | 0.83 |
| QQQ | $703.71 | 38.87 | 64.3 | $707.02 | Neutral | 1.36 |
| IWM | $293.34 | 42.79 | 0.0 | $269.80 | Bearish | 7.19 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.64 | 51.82 | 42.0 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.76 |
| TNX | 46.57 | 72.53 | 37.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $378.07 | 55.33 | 29.4 | $370.94 | Bearish | 0.29 |
| DXY | 101.14 | 45.66 | 15.0 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $53.84 | 48.76 | 20.0 | $41.30 | Bearish | 0.29 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.49
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 9.0B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.97%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.36% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 63.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 66.2%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.9%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 93.3% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 82.1% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 74.1% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 73.5% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 67.9% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 49.2% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 35.4% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $87.93 (5d: +11.4%)
- Brent Crude: $95.46 | Spread: $7.53
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.0900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $60.61/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $59.20
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.60
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.897 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.528 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.323 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.528 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.31
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,039,068.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,562,744.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.17 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $493.4B
- Gamma Call Wall: $755 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $746.03)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -38,938 contracts (Z +1.97, as of 2026-07-14)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: +12.0% (as of 2026-07-15)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.66%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.14
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.30% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.28%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.26%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6743.0B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $756.2B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,986B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,790B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,921B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,698B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $65,393 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~56h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: gex is STALE (~32h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: dix is STALE (~32h old vs an expected max of ~28h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [INFO] DIX at 0.490 β strong dark pool buying activity.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.528 with energy in RISING β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.490, GEX +9.0B, HY OAS 2.69%, breadth 64%.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $131.68 (vs 20d avg 113.68, +2.0Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 150 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.54%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 102.6395 | Prev: 102.5606
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
- Retail Sales: 2026-08-14
- Industrial Production: 2026-08-18
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.23 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.1% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (25):
[1] European Central Bank set to hold interest rates amid cooling inflation and weaker growth URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-set-to-hold-interest-rates-amid-cooling-inflation-and-weaker-growth-202607230800 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 08:00:00 GMT
[2] Brent: Energy risk premium rises - RaboResearch URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-energy-risk-premium-rises-raboresearch-202607230754 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 07:54:48 GMT
[3] Tech capex shock, Yen nursing losses, Aussie jobs beat and ECB decision eyed URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/tech-capex-shock-yen-nursing-losses-aussie-jobs-beat-and-ecb-decision-eyed-202607230747 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 07:47:51 GMT
[4] Japanese Yen: Further losses toward 163.50 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-further-losses-toward-16350-against-us-dollar-uob-202607230745 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 07:45:09 GMT
[5] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Remains above 163.00 near fresh 40-year highs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-remains-above-16300-near-fresh-40-year-highs-202607230741 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 07:41:14 GMT
[6] Turkish Lira: Dovish corridor risks for TRY - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkish-lira-dovish-corridor-risks-for-try-commerzbank-202607230739 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 07:39:23 GMT
[7] British Pound bulls seem hesitant as intervention fears and hawkish BoJ bets support Yen URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-bulls-seem-hesitant-as-intervention-fears-and-hawkish-boj-bets-support-yen-202607230734 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 07:34:08 GMT
[8] Euro: Hawkish ECB stance to limit downside against US Dollar - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-hawkish-ecb-stance-to-limit-downside-against-us-dollar-ing-202607230724 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 07:24:00 GMT
[9] IBM (IBM) Q2 earnings: Taking a look at key metrics versus estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ibm-ibm-q2-earnings-taking-a-look-at-key-metrics-versus-estimates-202607230717 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 07:17:10 GMT
[10] Euro rallies against the Pound as markets brace for ECB's monetary policy decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-rallies-against-the-pound-as-markets-brace-for-ecbs-monetary-policy-decision-202607230714 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 07:14:47 GMT
[11] Risk sentiment fading URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/risk-sentiment-fading-202607230710 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 07:10:58 GMT
[12] Pi Network Price Forecast: Key resistance stalls PI recovery run toward $0.10 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/pi-network-price-forecast-key-resistance-stalls-pi-recovery-run-toward-010-202607230707 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 07:07:12 GMT
[13] Equities: Mixed global performance following earnings - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-mixed-global-performance-following-earnings-deutsche-bank-202607230700 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 07:00:48 GMT
[14] Turkey Consumer Confidence rose from previous 87.9 to 89.8 in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkey-consumer-confidence-rose-from-previous-879-to-898-in-july-202607230700 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 07:00:29 GMT
[15] US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Weakens to near 101.00, but retains bullish tone above 100-day SMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-price-forecast-weakens-to-near-10100-but-retains-bullish-tone-above-100-day-sma-202607230653 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 06:53:02 GMT
[16] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Struggles to return above 20-day EMA URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-struggles-to-return-above-20-day-ema-202607230645 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 06:45:45 GMT
[17] France Business Climate in Manufacturing in line with expectations (101) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-business-climate-in-manufacturing-in-line-with-expectations-101-in-july-202607230645 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 06:45:01 GMT
[18] Oil: Middle East tensions raise supply risks - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-middle-east-tensions-raise-supply-risks-mufg-202607230640 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 06:40:29 GMT
[19] Mandela Digital Announces $5 Million Investment From Datavault AI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/mandela-digital-announces-5-million-investment-from-datavault-ai-202607230635 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 06:35:27 GMT
[20] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD stalls below $60 as US yields rally URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-stalls-below-60-as-us-yields-rally-202607230630 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 06:30:06 GMT
[21] British Pound: Downside risks below 1.3340 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-downside-risks-below-13340-against-us-dollar-uob-202607230622 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 06:22:27 GMT
[22] Canadian Dollar gains traction on rising oil prices as US-Iran war escalates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-gains-traction-on-rising-oil-prices-as-us-iran-war-escalates-202607230619 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 06:19:17 GMT
[23] Don't be afraid of changes: How continuity works in financial services URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/press-releases/dont-be-afraid-of-changes-how-continuity-works-in-financial-services-202607230618 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 06:18:13 GMT
[24] CXMT's $10 billion IPO is China's semiconductor moment with a hidden market risk URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/cxmts-10-billion-ipo-is-chinas-semiconductor-moment-with-a-hidden-market-risk-202607230609 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 06:09:26 GMT
[25] CEE: Auto sector maintains positive momentum URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/cee-auto-sector-maintains-positive-momentum-202607230600 Published: Thu, 23 Jul 2026 06:00:57 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] GCC urges UN Security Council to deter Iran, condemns Houthi threats Time: 2026-07-23T07:42:19.456Z
[2] Trump court papers sent to White House, Iran lawmaker says Time: 2026-07-23T06:44:54.869Z
[3] Iran says it seeks to offset reduced southern maritime trade via northeast borders Time: 2026-07-23T06:18:56.685Z
[4] Iran's Revolutionary Guards say they have right to strike US bases in Jordan Time: 2026-07-23T06:00:34.698Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 145 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 14 of 60 normal daily β 23.3% of normal
- Throughput: 17.5% of normal (1.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 285
- Oil Prices: Brent $81.62 (+9.79%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost