Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-14 06:00:59 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE — Strong divergence — structural signals broadly disagree with price

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	DIX 0.438 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.15 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	GEX +5.6B strong suppression
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 66% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🔴 BEARISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy RISING — oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +2.0% growth optimism · real yield 2.32% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	SPY/VIX -0.81 normal, SPY/DXY -0.44 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.37 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.47 elevated
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 17.2 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 146 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.55 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Stagflation score 20 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 70 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✗ DIVERGENT	HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose

Divergence read: Strong divergence — gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline — reversal risk if structure holds.

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 75/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 75 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.438) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $78, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.438; GEX positive at 5.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $748.13 | 50 SMA $741.99 | 200 SMA $694.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $751.94
QQQ: $710.65 | 50 SMA $716.16 | 200 SMA $638.57 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $720.94
IWM: $292.95 | 50 SMA $289.05 | 200 SMA $262.35 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
VIX: 17.16 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.609%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$748.13	53.68	61.9	$751.94	Neutral	1.50
QQQ	$710.65	41.27	82.8	$720.94	Bearish	2.85
IWM	$292.95	41.24	30.4	$250.00	Bearish	4.30

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	17.16	38.41	45.4	$10.50	Neutral	0.80
TNX	46.09	61.21	45.1	-	-	-
GLD	$367.21	37.13	35.1	$370.98	Bearish	5.68
DXY	101.17	54.74	24.8	-	-	-
SLV	$52.07	32.45	22.8	$36.00	Bearish	1.86

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.438
DIX Signal: Neutral
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.59B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.96%
2s10s Spread: 0.36% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.5%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.6%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 31.2%
Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Utilities	90.0%	0/0
Financials	89.6%	0/0
Health Care	88.9%	0/0
Real Estate	71.4%	0/0
Consumer Staples	67.6%	0/0
Industrials	67.2%	0/0
Communication Services	50.0%	0/0
Materials	50.0%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	47.5%	0/0
Energy	47.4%	0/0
Technology	46.2%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: RISING
WTI Crude: $78.14 (5d: +10.9%)
Brent Crude: $83.30 | Spread: $5.16
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1700/gal
Heating Oil: $3.8200/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $64.10/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $56.74
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.37

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.81	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.439	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.366	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.474	elevated

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.55
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 691,424.0
0DTE Put Volume: 794,094.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.15 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $111.3B
Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $748.13)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.61%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.88 (Normal)
DXY: 101.17
Growth vs Value: 0.95
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,818B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,941B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,720B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,564 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] SKEW at 146 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.32% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $64.10/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $117.79 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 — systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=115432B
[WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.438 — institutional buying support fading.
[WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
[WARNING] SPY (749.84) dropped below ZGL (752.37) — expect amplified downside moves.
[INFO] SPY (749.65) reclaimed ZGL (743.03) — volatility dampening resumes.

Seasonality

Current Month: July
Average Return: +2.55%
Median Return: +2.28%
Hit Rate: 80%
Signal: Historically Bullish

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

CPI(MoM)(Jun): ⏳ Pending
CPI(YoY)(Jun): ⏳ Pending
Core CPI(MoM)(Jun): ⏳ Pending
Core CPI(YoY)(Jun): ⏳ Pending
TIC Net Long-Term Transactions(May): ⏳ Pending

Earnings:

JPM: EPS Est. $5.80 (↑7.5% vs 30d)
GS: EPS Est. $14.54 (↑5.9% vs 30d)

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (↑0.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (↑9.6% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.0% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑0.0% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (25):

[1] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound holds above 1.3350 with the 200-day SMA capping gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-pound-holds-above-13350-with-the-200-day-sma-capping-gains-202607140957 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:57:03 Z

[2] US Dollar: Tailwinds build as oil and Fed reprice - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-tailwinds-build-as-oil-and-fed-reprice-ocbc-202607140953 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:53:51 Z

[3] New Zealand Dollar: Gulf re-escalation favours Kiwi outperformance - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-gulf-re-escalation-favours-kiwi-outperformance-ing-202607140945 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:45:04 Z

[4] Fed: Guidance, reaction function and rates - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-guidance-reaction-function-and-rates-bny-202607140933 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:33:45 Z

[5] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202607140930 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:30:47 Z

[6] Oil: Hormuz risk repricing lifts prices - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-hormuz-risk-repricing-lifts-prices-rabobank-202607140923 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:23:07 Z

[7] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds above $58.00 despite ongoing bearish bias URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-holds-above-5800-despite-ongoing-bearish-bias-202607140921 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:21:01 Z

[8] Indian Rupee: Oil rebound clouds INR gains against US Dollar - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-oil-rebound-clouds-inr-gains-against-us-dollar-dbs-202607140913 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:13:26 Z

[9] Turkish Lira: Structural external gaps keep TRY under pressure - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkish-lira-structural-external-gaps-keep-try-under-pressure-commerzbank-202607140903 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:03:15 Z

[10] BoE's Bailey: Resumption of hostilities in Gulf underlines instability going forward URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boes-bailey-resumption-of-hostilities-in-gulf-underlines-instability-going-forward-202607140901 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 09:01:05 Z

[11] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Slides to 162.00 as constructive setup favors bulls before US CPI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-slides-to-16200-as-constructive-setup-favors-bulls-before-us-cpi-202607140857 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:57:30 Z

[12] US Dollar Index: DXY could reach 102 as Gulf tensions persist - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-index-dxy-could-reach-102-as-gulf-tensions-persist-ing-202607140851 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:51:12 Z

[13] New Zealand Dollar holds gains near 0.5800, unfazed by risk aversion URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-holds-gains-near-05800-unfazed-by-risk-aversion-202607140849 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:49:59 Z

[14] Euro declines against Canadian Dollar as oil prices rise URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-declines-against-canadian-dollar-as-oil-prices-rise-202607140849 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:49:38 Z

[15] Indian Rupee slumps amid dual pressure from higher oil prices, Treasury yields URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-drifts-sharply-lower-as-us-claims-right-of-hormuz-toll-fee-202607140537 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:43:25 Z

[16] Spain 9-Month Letras Auction rose from previous 2.518% to 2.623% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-9-month-letras-auction-rose-from-previous-2518-to-2623-202607140841 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:41:36 Z

[17] Spain 3-Month Letras Auction rose from previous 2.239% to 2.366% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-3-month-letras-auction-rose-from-previous-2239-to-2366-202607140841 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:41:28 Z

[18] Japanese Yen: Stays weak within broad band against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-stays-weak-within-broad-band-against-us-dollar-uob-202607140838 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:38:21 Z

[19] Euro rises against US Dollar as latter corrects ahead of US CPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-rises-against-us-dollar-as-latter-corrects-ahead-of-us-cpi-data-202607140838 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:38:17 Z

[20] US CPI data set to show inflation cooled in June due to tumbling fuel prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cpi-data-set-to-show-inflation-cooled-in-june-due-to-tumbling-fuel-prices-202607140830 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:30:00 Z

[21] Dow Jones futures fall ahead of results from Wall Street lenders URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-fall-ahead-of-results-from-wall-street-lenders-202607140825 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:25:53 Z

[22] Oil: Stagflation fears rise with Middle East tensions - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-stagflation-fears-rise-with-middle-east-tensions-deutsche-bank-202607140824 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:24:16 Z

[23] USD/CHF Price Forecast: Consolidates gains above 0.8130 with US CPI, Fed Warsh in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-consolidates-gains-above-08130-with-us-cpi-fed-warsh-in-focus-202607140813 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:13:02 Z

[24] Gold sticks to gains above $4,000; lacks bullish conviction ahead of US CPI, Fed's Warsh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-bounces-off-two-week-low-as-usd-bulls-turn-cautious-ahead-of-us-cpi-feds-warsh-202607140350 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:07:59 Z

[25] Swiss Franc: Weakens as Euro tests triangle resistance - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-weakens-as-euro-tests-triangle-resistance-societe-generale-202607140805 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 08:05:51 Z

Iran War News

Updates (10):

[BREAKING] [1] New Zealand summons Iranian ambassador over Hormuz escalation Time: 2026-07-14T09:42:10.474Z

[2] US personnel faced phone-tracking campaign during Iran war - FT Time: 2026-07-14T09:31:51.114Z

[3] Five explosions heard west of Bandar Abbas Time: 2026-07-14T09:18:20.796Z

[4] Iran condemns UK move to proscribe IRGC Time: 2026-07-14T09:17:52.985Z

[5] Bahrain, UK foreign ministers discuss Iran attacks Time: 2026-07-14T09:09:27.625Z

[6] Germany investigates suspected Iran-linked spying and attack plans Time: 2026-07-14T09:03:16.017Z

[7] Germany says economy improved but Iran war risks cloud outlook Time: 2026-07-14T08:50:38.908Z

[8] Hapag-Lloyd says charging for Strait of Hormuz passage would be wrong Time: 2026-07-14T08:29:45.347Z

[9] Qatar condemns Houthi ballistic missile attack on southern Saudi Arabia Time: 2026-07-14T08:16:18.318Z

[10] Iran military says it will not back down in Strait of Hormuz Time: 2026-07-14T08:13:46.567Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 136 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily — 56.7% of normal
Throughput: 34.0% of normal (3.5M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 0
Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 33.3x normal
Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost