Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-14 04:01:16 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.438 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.15 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 66% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +2.0% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.32% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.81 normal, SPY/DXY -0.44 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.37 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.47 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.55 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 75/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 75 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.438) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $78, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.438; GEX positive at 5.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $748.13 | 50 SMA $741.99 | 200 SMA $694.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $751.94
- QQQ: $710.65 | 50 SMA $716.16 | 200 SMA $638.57 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $720.94
- IWM: $292.95 | 50 SMA $289.05 | 200 SMA $262.35 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 17.16 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.609%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $748.13 | 53.68 | 61.9 | $751.94 | Neutral | 1.50 |
| QQQ | $710.65 | 41.27 | 82.8 | $720.94 | Bearish | 2.85 |
| IWM | $292.95 | 41.24 | 30.4 | $250.00 | Bearish | 4.30 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.16 | 38.41 | 45.4 | $10.50 | Neutral | 0.80 |
| TNX | 46.09 | 61.21 | 45.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $367.21 | 37.13 | 35.1 | $370.98 | Bearish | 5.68 |
| DXY | 101.17 | 54.74 | 24.8 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.07 | 32.45 | 22.8 | $36.00 | Bearish | 1.86 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.438
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.59B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.96%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.36% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 88.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 47.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 47.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 46.2% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $78.14 (5d: +10.9%)
- Brent Crude: $83.30 | Spread: $5.16
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1700/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $64.10/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.74
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.37
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.81 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.439 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.366 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.474 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.55
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 691,424.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 794,094.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.15 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $111.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $740 (Spot: $748.13)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.61%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.88 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.17
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,818B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,941B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,720B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,463 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.32% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $64.10/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $117.79 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=115432B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.438 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [WARNING] SPY (749.84) dropped below ZGL (752.37) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (749.65) reclaimed ZGL (743.03) β volatility dampening resumes.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.55%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- CPI(MoM)(Jun): β³ Pending
- CPI(YoY)(Jun): β³ Pending
- Core CPI(MoM)(Jun): β³ Pending
- Core CPI(YoY)(Jun): β³ Pending
- TIC Net Long-Term Transactions(May): β³ Pending
Earnings:
- JPM: EPS Est. $5.80 (β7.5% vs 30d)
- GS: EPS Est. $14.54 (β5.9% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β9.6% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (27):
[1] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Surging Oil prices back further downside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-surging-oil-prices-back-further-downside-202607140757 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:57:53 Z
[2] US Dollar: Fed reaction focus after Waller - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-fed-reaction-focus-after-waller-mufg-202607140753 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:53:54 Z
[3] British Pound flat below 217.00 as JPY intervention risks cap gains; bullish bias intact URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-flat-below-21700-as-jpy-intervention-risks-cap-gains-bullish-bias-intact-202607140746 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:46:33 Z
[4] Gold: Oil spike weighs on prices - OCBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-oil-spike-weighs-on-prices-ocbc-202607140745 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:45:10 Z
[5] WTI rises above $80.00 as US launches strikes, Iran disrupts shipping URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-rises-above-8000-as-us-launches-strikes-iran-disrupts-shipping-202607140738 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:38:28 Z
[6] Australian Dollar: Waiting for Australian data before RBA - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-waiting-for-australian-data-before-rba-commerzbank-202607140736 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:36:08 Z
[7] Forex Today: Eyes on US inflation data and Fed Chair Warsh testimony as Oil prices surge URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-eyes-on-us-inflation-data-and-fed-chair-warsh-testimony-as-oil-prices-surge-202607140727 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:27:29 Z
[8] Oil: Hormuz tensions drive price surge - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-hormuz-tensions-drive-price-surge-ing-202607140721 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:21:38 Z
[9] Australian Dollar treads water above 0.6900, amid the risk-off market mood URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-treads-water-above-06900-amid-the-risk-off-market-mood-202607140716 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:16:38 Z
[10] British Pound: Advance has ended with range trade likely against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-advance-has-ended-with-range-trade-likely-against-us-dollar-uob-202607140712 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:12:32 Z
[11] FB Financial (FBK) Q2 earnings match estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fb-financial-fbk-q2-earnings-match-estimates-202607140709 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:09:12 Z
[12] United States Dollar Index Price Forecast: Holds above 101.00 ahead of US CPI, Fed's Warsh URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-price-forecast-holds-above-10100-ahead-of-us-cpi-feds-warsh-202607140704 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:04:07 Z
[13] US Dollar: Data-dependent Fed stance and volatile pricing - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-data-dependent-fed-stance-and-volatile-pricing-bny-202607140700 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 07:00:55 Z
[14] Japanese Yen: Asset flows and valuation support - DBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-asset-flows-and-valuation-support-dbs-202607140651 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 06:51:56 Z
[15] Indian Rupee slumps as US considers itself rightful recipient of Hormuz toll fees URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-drifts-sharply-lower-as-us-claims-right-of-hormuz-toll-fee-202607140537 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 06:48:48 Z
[16] British Pound drifts higher to near 1.3350 ahead US CPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-drifts-higher-to-near-13350-ahead-us-cpi-data-202607140641 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 06:41:10 Z
[17] Equities: Chip slump and oil surge weigh - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-chip-slump-and-oil-surge-weigh-deutsche-bank-202607140637 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 06:37:07 Z
[18] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD trades higher around $58 in countdown to US CPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-trades-higher-around-58-in-countdown-to-us-cpi-data-202607140636 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 06:36:21 Z
[19] India WPI Inflation increased to 9.87% in June from previous 9.68% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/india-wpi-inflation-increased-to-987-in-june-from-previous-968-202607140631 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 06:31:33 Z
[20] Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (YoY) fell from previous -1.8% to -2.1% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-producer-and-import-prices-yoy-fell-from-previous-18-to-21-in-june-202607140630 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 06:30:01 Z
[21] Switzerland Producer and Import Prices (MoM) climbed from previous -0.4% to -0.3% in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/switzerland-producer-and-import-prices-mom-climbed-from-previous-04-to-03-in-june-202607140630 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 06:30:00 Z
[22] Indian Rupee: Higher Oil and trade risks weigh on INR - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-higher-oil-and-trade-risks-weigh-on-inr-commerzbank-202607140628 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 06:28:36 Z
[23] Gold approaches $4,050 on softer USD; looks to US CPI, Fed's Warsh for fresh impetus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-bounces-off-two-week-low-as-usd-bulls-turn-cautious-ahead-of-us-cpi-feds-warsh-202607140350 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 06:26:25 Z
[24] Japanese Yen edges up against the US Dollar but remains close to 40-year lows URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-edges-up-against-the-us-dollar-but-remains-close-to-40-year-lows-202607140621 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 06:21:11 Z
[25] Gold: Fed inflation fears weigh on prices - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-fed-inflation-fears-weigh-on-prices-ing-202607140615 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 06:15:10 Z
[26] Euro: Downside bias but key support holds against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-downside-bias-but-key-support-holds-against-us-dollar-uob-202607140606 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 06:06:31 Z
[27] EUR/USD Price Forecast: Brace for a further sell-off toward 1.1200 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eur-usd-price-forecast-brace-for-a-further-sell-off-towards-11200-202607140600 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 06:00:19 Z
Iran War News
Updates (10):
[1] Smoke rises after US strikes on Bushehr Airport Time: 2026-07-14T07:45:47.026Z
[2] Tanker reports missile strike off Oman - UKMTO Time: 2026-07-14T07:30:05.194Z
[3] Ahmadinejad attended Iran Expediency Council meeting, says outlet close to him Time: 2026-07-14T07:28:35.043Z
[4] China urges de-escalation after US blockade on Iran Time: 2026-07-14T07:22:26.159Z
[5] GCC condemns Iran attack on UAE oil tankers Time: 2026-07-14T07:13:57.346Z
[6] Bahrain says it intercepts Iranian aerial attacks targeting civilians Time: 2026-07-14T07:13:39.436Z
[7] Iran lawmaker says retaliation for killing supreme leader is certain Time: 2026-07-14T07:05:13.642Z
[8] US struck two sites in Bushehr overnight, official says Time: 2026-07-14T07:00:13.752Z
[9] Two ADNOC oil tankers struck by projectiles in Hormuz, comp Time: 2026-07-14T06:58:19.743Z
[BREAKING] [10] Iran authorities say 23 crew rescued after ship collision near Qeshm island Time: 2026-07-14T06:24:58.382Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 136 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily β 56.7% of normal
- Throughput: 34.0% of normal (3.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS200 (+300% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost