Finance Analyst Report: 2026-07-14 07:17:42 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 25% (2 aligned, 6 divergent) Status: STRONG DIVERGENCE β Strong divergence β structural signals broadly disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.438 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.15 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.6B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 66% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.6% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.32% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.81 normal, SPY/DXY -0.44 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.37 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.47 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 146 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.49 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Stagflation score 20 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.1% stable, MOVE 70 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.69% benign, NFCI -0.515 loose |
Divergence read: Strong divergence β gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish as SPY falls. 6 of 8 signals refuse to confirm the decline β reversal risk if structure holds.
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 75/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 75 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β energy regime RISING and DIX below threshold (0.438) keeps full risk-on classification at bay. Signal-price divergence detected: 6 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $81, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.438; GEX positive at 5.6B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically bullish.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $747.72 | 50 SMA $741.99 | 200 SMA $694.91 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $750.61
- QQQ: $714.20 | 50 SMA $716.16 | 200 SMA $638.57 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.01
- IWM: $293.29 | 50 SMA $289.05 | 200 SMA $262.35 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $294.15
- VIX: 17.50 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.609%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $747.72 | 53.68 | 61.9 | $750.61 | Neutral | 1.13 |
| QQQ | $714.20 | 41.27 | 82.8 | $712.01 | Neutral | 1.47 |
| IWM | $293.29 | 41.24 | 30.4 | $294.15 | Bearish | 3.60 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.50 | 38.41 | 45.4 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.31 |
| TNX | 46.09 | 61.21 | 45.1 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $368.88 | 37.13 | 35.1 | $366.57 | Bearish | 4.02 |
| DXY | 101.16 | 45.01 | 24.9 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.25 | 32.45 | 22.8 | $52.69 | Bearish | 1.65 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.438
- DIX Signal: Neutral
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.59B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.69% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.96%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.36% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 67.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 89.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 88.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 71.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 67.6% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 67.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 50.0% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 47.5% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 47.4% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 46.2% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $80.82 (5d: +9.9%)
- Brent Crude: $87.17 | Spread: $6.35
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0600/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.8600/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.90/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $56.74
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.37
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.81 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.439 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.366 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.474 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.55
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.25 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.15 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $111.3B
- Gamma Call Wall: $757 | Put Wall: $745 (Spot: $747.72)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 4/4 above
- Position: Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long)
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -42,891 contracts (Z +2.01, as of 2026-07-07)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.9% (as of 2026-07-08)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.61%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.88 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.16
- Growth vs Value: 0.96
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.31% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.26%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.21%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 20/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6735.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $774.1B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.8B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,961B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,818B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$3,942B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,721B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,659 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 146 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.32% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $58.90/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $117.79 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] CTA SMA stack now 4.0/4 β systematic trend trigger fired. Above all 4 SMAs (full-stack long).
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=159186B avg=115432B
- [WARNING] DIX dropped below 0.45 to 0.438 β institutional buying support fading.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from RISK-ON to TRANSITIONAL.
- [WARNING] SPY (749.84) dropped below ZGL (752.37) β expect amplified downside moves.
Seasonality
- Current Month: July
- Average Return: +2.55%
- Median Return: +2.28%
- Hit Rate: 80%
- Signal: Historically Bullish
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- CPI(MoM)(Jun): β³ Pending
- CPI(YoY)(Jun): β³ Pending
- Core CPI(MoM)(Jun): β³ Pending
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: β³ Pending
- Core CPI(YoY)(Jun): β³ Pending
- TIC Net Long-Term Transactions(May): β³ Pending
Earnings:
- JPM: EPS Est. $5.80 (β7.5% vs 30d)
- GS: EPS Est. $14.54 (β5.9% vs 30d)
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-07-28
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-07-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-08-07
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-08-12
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-08-13
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- GOOGL (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $2.89 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.50 (β11.1% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β0.0% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] US CPI data set to show inflation slowed in June as market bets on rate hikes persist URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-cpi-data-set-to-show-inflation-cooled-in-june-due-to-tumbling-fuel-prices-202607140830 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 11:00:00 Z
[2] WTI Oil holds at monthly highs around $80.00 as Iran's conflict escalates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-oil-holds-at-monthly-highs-around-8000-as-irans-conflict-escalates-202607141046 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 10:46:33 Z
[3] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rebounds above $4,000 with US CPI in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-rebounds-above-4-000-with-us-cpi-in-focus-202607141030 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 10:30:07 Z
[4] Indian Rupee slumps as oil prices surge, US CPI data awaited URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-drifts-sharply-lower-as-us-claims-right-of-hormuz-toll-fee-202607140537 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 10:07:03 Z
[5] Japanese Yen: Domestic savings shift aids JGBs and JPY - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-domestic-savings-shift-aids-jgbs-and-jpy-mufg-202607141002 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 10:02:49 Z
[6] The tariff economy returns: Global e-commerce enters a political era (AMZN vs BABA) URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-tariff-economy-returns-global-e-commerce-enters-a-political-era-amzn-vs-baba-202607141000 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 10:00:38 Z
[7] United States NFIB Business Optimism Index came in at 97.4, above forecasts (95.8) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-nfib-business-optimism-index-came-in-at-974-above-forecasts-958-in-june-202607141000 Published: Tue, 14 Jul 2026 10:00:03 Z
Iran War News
Updates (6):
[1] Iranian oil supertanker races to beat blockade deadline, tracker says Time: 2026-07-14T11:01:11.175Z
[2] Iran parliament ousts two hardline critics of US talks from security panel Time: 2026-07-14T10:19:42.982Z
[3] UAE condemns renewed Iranian attacks on Bahrain and Jordan Time: 2026-07-14T10:18:00.876Z
[4] Bahrain jails three for life over alleged IRGC espionage Time: 2026-07-14T10:13:24.586Z
[5] Stolt Tankers says vessel hit by unidentified external device off Oman Time: 2026-07-14T10:10:41.145Z
[BREAKING] [6] Four areas in Iran's Bushehr hit by projectiles, provincial governor says Time: 2026-07-14T10:07:53.201Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 136 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 34 of 60 normal daily β 56.7% of normal
- Throughput: 34.0% of normal (3.5M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $69.56 (+1.28%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 33.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost