Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-25 06:00:27 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT — Strong alignment — structural signals confirm price direction

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.408 below 0.42 — institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.20 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +0.5B vol dampening
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.516 loose
Breadth	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Breadth 64% — broad participation supports rally
Energy	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Energy FALLING — oil decline, mild equity tailwind
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold +5.9% growth optimism · real yield 2.29% restrictive
news_sentiment	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	AI news sentiment unavailable
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.89 normal, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.48 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.40 elevated
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 18.6 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 145 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.13 dealer stress
Inflation	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	Stagflation score 12 — low inflation risk
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 69 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% — hawkish lean but no BS drain

Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally — gamma, credit, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).

Market Status

Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 82/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 82 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL — DIX below threshold (0.408) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.408; GEX positive at 0.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $737.75 | 50 SMA $732.03 | 200 SMA $689.29 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $736.06
QQQ: $724.29 | 50 SMA $697.79 | 200 SMA $630.16 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $716.98
IWM: $297.57 | 50 SMA $282.76 | 200 SMA $258.62 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $277.5
VIX: 18.63 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.402%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$737.75	37.67	76.2	$736.06	Neutral	1.34
QQQ	$724.29	41.51	100.0	$716.98	Bearish	1.65
IWM	$297.57	53.42	76.4	$277.50	Neutral	1.06

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	18.63	56.58	98.7	$10.50	Neutral	1.25
TNX	44.02	54.26	26.2	-	-	-
GLD	$367.40	30.67	39.3	$255.00	Bearish	11.02
DXY	101.58	79.87	23.6	-	-	-
SLV	$52.11	25.90	22.4	$20.00	Bearish	2.60

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.408
DIX Signal: Weak
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 0.47B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.93%
2s10s Spread: 0.30% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.1%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 63.6%
Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
Mag 7 Concentration: 30.2%
Top 10 Concentration: 40.3%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Utilities	90.0%	0/0
Real Estate	78.6%	0/0
Health Care	72.2%	0/0
Industrials	71.6%	0/0
Financials	68.7%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	62.7%	0/0
Consumer Staples	61.8%	0/0
Materials	58.3%	0/0
Technology	53.8%	0/0
Energy	21.1%	0/0
Communication Services	20.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: FALLING
WTI Crude: $69.80 (5d: -9.1%)
Brent Crude: $73.18 | Spread: $3.38
RBOB Gasoline: $2.7800/gal
Heating Oil: $3.1000/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $51.44/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $53.57
UNG (Nat Gas): $11.73

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.893	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.406	elevated
SPY / TNX	-0.484	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.397	elevated

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.06
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
0DTE Call Volume: 4,377,026.0
0DTE Put Volume: 5,262,412.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.20 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $706.8B
Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $737.75)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) · below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -2.8% (as of 2026-06-17)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.40%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
DXY: 101.58
Growth vs Value: 0.98
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.19% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.18%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.17%
Stagflation Risk Score: 12/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6736.4B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.7B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $4.5B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,851B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,953B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,107B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,911B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $61,632 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.408) despite calm surface (VIX 18.6, breadth 64%).
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] SKEW at 145 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.29% — restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
[WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $51.44/bbl — refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $106.29 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=108901B
[INFO] GEX declined below 1.0B to 0.5B — dealer gamma cushion thinning.
[INFO] Screener: VNOM — confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction n/a/100, regime range_noise, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 50% (n=3604)).
[INFO] Screener: BCO — confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction n/a/100, regime range_noise, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 50% (n=3604)).

Seasonality

Current Month: June
Average Return: +0.13%
Median Return: +0.46%
Hit Rate: 55%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Crude Oil Inventories: -6.088 vs Est. -3.900 (MISS) | Prev: -8.263
New Home Sales(May): 580 vs Est. 638 (MISS) | Prev: 626
5-Year Note Auction: 4.200% | Prev: 4.182%
Building Permits(May): 1.410 vs Est. 1.413 (INLINE) | Prev: 1.423
Current Account(Q1): -226.8 vs Est. -212.0 (MISS) | Prev: -221.1
Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -1.077 | Prev: -1.606
New Home Sales(MoM)(May): -7.3% | Prev: -5.7%

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
Industrial Production: 2026-07-17

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (↑0.3% vs 30d)
GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.86 (↑0.9% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (30):

[1] South Africa Producer Price Index (MoM) dipped from previous 3% to 2.6% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-producer-price-index-mom-dipped-from-previous-3-to-26-in-may-202606250930 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 09:30:10 Z

[2] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202606250930 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 09:30:08 Z

[3] South Africa Producer Price Index (YoY) rose from previous 4.8% to 7.8% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-producer-price-index-yoy-rose-from-previous-48-to-78-in-may-202606250930 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 09:30:08 Z

[4] Polish Zloty: NBP dovishness keeps Zloty pressured against Euro - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/polish-zloty-nbp-dovishness-keeps-zloty-pressured-against-euro-ing-202606250928 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 09:28:24 Z

[5] US Dollar: Volatility shifts with changing Fed communication - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-volatility-shifts-with-changing-fed-communication-commerzbank-202606250918 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 09:18:44 Z

[6] Japanese Yen: Seen weaker against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-seen-weaker-against-us-dollar-uob-202606250908 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 09:08:24 Z

[7] Indian Rupee gains as easing energy supply concerns push oil prices to pre-war levels URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-opens-strongly-as-oil-prices-return-to-pre-war-levels-202606250513 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 09:08:20 Z

[8] WTI falls to near $69.00 amid rising oil supply odds from Middle East URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-falls-to-near-6900-amid-rising-oil-supply-odds-from-middle-east-202606250906 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 09:06:07 Z

[9] US core PCE inflation expected to rise in May amid hawkish Fed expectations URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-core-pce-inflation-expected-to-rise-in-may-as-fed-rate-hike-bets-increase-202606250600 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 09:00:00 Z

[10] Oil: Bearish setup as supplies normalise - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-bearish-setup-as-supplies-normalise-danske-bank-202606250859 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:59:16 Z

[11] USD/CHF Price Forecast: Aims to extend rally towards one-year high at around 0.8170 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-aims-to-extend-rally-towards-one-year-high-at-around-08170-202606250854 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:54:45 Z

[12] Gold: Slide below $4,000 tests key supports - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-slide-below-4-000-tests-key-supports-societe-generale-202606250850 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:50:51 Z

[13] Canadian Dollar: High USD/CAD seen as exaggerated - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-high-usd-cad-seen-as-exaggerated-commerzbank-202606250842 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:42:04 Z

[14] Iraq considers leaving OPEC if its quota is not increased - Reuters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iraq-considers-leaving-opec-if-its-quota-is-not-increased-reuters-202606250841 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:41:05 Z

[15] Gold consolidates around $4,000, remains close to November 2025 lows ahead of US PCE data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-retains-bearish-bias-near-november-2025-lows-eyes-us-pce-amid-receding-fed-hike-bets-202606250343 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:36:35 Z

[16] GBP/JPY Price Forecasts: Pound bounces up to 213.40 with intervention risks increasing URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-jpy-price-forecasts-pound-bounces-up-to-21340-with-intervention-risks-increasing-202606250835 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:35:12 Z

[17] Euro: Stabilising above 1.1300 against US Dollar with risk driver - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-stabilising-above-11300-against-us-dollar-with-risk-driver-ing-202606250832 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:32:54 Z

[18] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds losses near $57.50 due to prevailing bearish bias URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-holds-losses-near-5750-due-to-prevailing-bearish-bias-202606250831 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:31:09 Z

[19] UK's Reeves: Andy Burnham will be the next Prime Minister URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uks-reeves-andy-burnham-will-be-the-next-prime-minister-202606250830 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:30:02 Z

[20] Japanese Yen: PCE shocks drive intraday moves against US Dollar - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-pce-shocks-drive-intraday-moves-against-us-dollar-mufg-202606250823 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:23:26 Z

[21] US Dollar: Consumer resilience and GDP under scrutiny - UBS URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-consumer-resilience-and-gdp-under-scrutiny-ubs-202606250813 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:13:46 Z

[22] US Secretary of State Rubio: Hormuz doesn't belong to any nation state URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-secretary-of-state-rubio-hormuz-doesnt-belong-to-any-nation-state-202606250807 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:07:59 Z

[23] Equities: Tech rebound lifts futures - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-tech-rebound-lifts-futures-deutsche-bank-202606250804 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:04:24 Z

[24] Italy Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) down to 3.2% in April from previous 4.4% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-industrial-sales-nsa-yoy-down-to-32-in-april-from-previous-44-202606250800 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:00:44 Z

[25] Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) declined to 0.3% in April from previous 2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-industrial-sales-sa-mom-declined-to-03-in-april-from-previous-2-202606250800 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:00:38 Z

[26] Italy Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) down to 0.3% in April from previous 2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/italy-industrial-sales-sa-mom-down-to-03-in-april-from-previous-2-202606250800 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:00:37 Z

[27] Dow Jones futures rise on tech rally, US PCE inflation awaited URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-rise-on-tech-rally-us-pce-inflation-awaited-202606250759 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 07:59:59 Z

[28] Australian Dollar: Oversold but vulnerable against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-oversold-but-vulnerable-against-us-dollar-uob-202606250756 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 07:56:19 Z

[29] Canadian Dollar languishes at 14-month lows amid Fed hiking bets, lower Oil prices URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-languishes-at-14-month-lows-amid-fed-hiking-bets-lower-oil-prices-202606250754 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 07:54:21 Z

[30] Thai Baht: BoT caution keeps policy on hold - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/thai-baht-bot-caution-keeps-policy-on-hold-commerzbank-202606250744 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 07:44:57 Z

Iran War News

Updates (7):

[1] North Korea received $25 million for Iran tunnel technology, former diplomat says Time: 2026-06-25T09:35:57.702Z

[2] Sources detail Ali Khamenei bunker with blast-resistant room Time: 2026-06-25T09:26:52.812Z

[3] Unveiled in wartime, targeted in peacetime? Time: 2026-06-25T09:23:33.428Z

[4] 1,100 seafarers evacuated under UN Hormuz scheme - Reuters Time: 2026-06-25T09:20:02.270Z

[5] Iraq says it is working to restore oil exports after Iran war hit - Reuters Time: 2026-06-25T08:21:56.089Z

[BREAKING] [6] Rubio says US wants Iran deal but 'not at any price' Time: 2026-06-25T07:59:00.431Z

[BREAKING] [7] Bahrain welcomes Oman plan for safe Hormuz passage Time: 2026-06-25T07:54:31.763Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 117 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 25 of 60 normal daily — 41.7% of normal
Throughput: 39.8% of normal (4.1M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 0
Oil Prices: Brent $84.36 (-4.83%)
War Risk Insurance: ELEVATED — 16.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS85 (+70% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost