Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-25 08:00:30 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.408 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.20 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +0.5B vol dampening |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.516 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy FALLING β oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.9% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.29% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.89 normal, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.48 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.40 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 145 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.13 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 12 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 69 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, credit, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 82/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 82 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.408) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.408; GEX positive at 0.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $737.75 | 50 SMA $732.03 | 200 SMA $689.29 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $736.06
- QQQ: $724.29 | 50 SMA $697.79 | 200 SMA $630.16 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $716.98
- IWM: $297.57 | 50 SMA $282.76 | 200 SMA $258.62 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $277.5
- VIX: 18.63 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.402%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $737.75 | 37.67 | 76.2 | $736.06 | Neutral | 1.34 |
| QQQ | $724.29 | 41.51 | 100.0 | $716.98 | Bearish | 1.65 |
| IWM | $297.57 | 53.42 | 76.4 | $277.50 | Neutral | 1.06 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.63 | 56.58 | 98.7 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.25 |
| TNX | 44.02 | 54.26 | 26.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $367.40 | 30.67 | 39.3 | $255.00 | Bearish | 11.02 |
| DXY | 101.58 | 79.87 | 23.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.11 | 25.90 | 22.4 | $20.00 | Bearish | 2.60 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.408
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 0.47B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.30% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.1%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 63.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 78.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 72.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 71.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 68.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 21.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 20.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $69.80 (5d: -9.1%)
- Brent Crude: $73.18 | Spread: $3.38
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.7800/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.1000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $51.44/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.57
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.73
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.893 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.406 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.484 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.397 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.06
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,377,026.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 5,262,412.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.20 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $706.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $737.75)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -2.8% (as of 2026-06-17)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.40%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.58
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.19% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.18%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.17%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 12/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6736.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $4.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,851B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,953B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,107B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,911B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $61,263 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.408) despite calm surface (VIX 18.6, breadth 64%).
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 145 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.29% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $51.44/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $106.29 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=108901B
- [INFO] GEX declined below 1.0B to 0.5B β dealer gamma cushion thinning.
- [INFO] Screener: VNOM β confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction n/a/100, regime range_noise, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 50% (n=3604)).
- [INFO] Screener: BCO β confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction n/a/100, regime range_noise, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 50% (n=3604)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.13%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: -6.088 vs Est. -3.900 (MISS) | Prev: -8.263
- New Home Sales(May): 580 vs Est. 638 (MISS) | Prev: 626
- 5-Year Note Auction: 4.200% | Prev: 4.182%
- Building Permits(May): 1.410 vs Est. 1.413 (INLINE) | Prev: 1.423
- Current Account(Q1): -226.8 vs Est. -212.0 (MISS) | Prev: -221.1
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -1.077 | Prev: -1.606
- New Home Sales(MoM)(May): -7.3% | Prev: -5.7%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.86 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (16):
[1] United States: Resilience tested by inflation - RBC URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-resilience-tested-by-inflation-rbc-202606251130 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 11:30:05 Z
[2] Brent: Hormuz reopening pressures prices lower - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/brent-hormuz-reopening-pressures-prices-lower-commerzbank-202606251116 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 11:16:00 Z
[3] Indian Rupee gains on reviving enegry flows through Hormuz URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-opens-strongly-as-oil-prices-return-to-pre-war-levels-202606250513 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 11:11:44 Z
[4] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds onto losses below $4,000 ahead of US PCE Inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-holds-onto-losses-below-4-000-ahead-of-us-pce-inflation-data-202606251107 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 11:07:26 Z
[5] Gold consolidates near seven-month low ahead of US PCE report URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-consolidates-near-seven-month-low-ahead-of-us-pce-report-202606251104 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 11:04:50 Z
[6] US core PCE inflation set to tick up in May as markets price in Fed rate hike in September URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-core-pce-inflation-expected-to-rise-in-may-as-fed-rate-hike-bets-increase-202606250600 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 11:00:00 Z
[7] Oman rules out fears of toll on Hormuz URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oman-rules-out-fears-of-toll-on-hormuz-202606251054 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 10:54:49 Z
[8] Australian Dollar languishes around 0.6900 with US inflation data in the spotlight URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-languishes-around-06900-with-us-inflation-data-in-the-spotlight-202606251036 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 10:36:55 Z
[9] Is Nvidia topping out? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/is-nvidia-topping-out-202606251032 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 10:32:59 Z
[10] USD/JPY ambitions for fresh all-time high near 162.00 amid firm US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-ambitions-for-fresh-all-time-high-near-16200-amid-firm-us-dollar-202606251016 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 10:16:23 Z
[11] Euro: Energy prices and Yen flows influence outlook - ABN AMRO URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-energy-prices-and-yen-flows-influence-outlook-abn-amro-202606251003 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 10:03:06 Z
[12] Mexican Peso: Banxico stance and Fed risks drive MXN - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/mexican-peso-banxico-stance-and-fed-risks-drive-mxn-societe-generale-202606250957 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 09:57:24 Z
[13] US Dollar: Strong services keep inflation firm - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-strong-services-keep-inflation-firm-td-securities-202606250947 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 09:47:45 Z
[14] British Pound picks up nearing 1.3200 with all eyes on US PCE Price Index data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-picks-up-nearing-13200-with-all-eyes-on-us-pce-price-index-data-202606250943 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 09:43:06 Z
[15] South African Rand: Precious metals slump tempers carry outlook - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-african-rand-precious-metals-slump-tempers-carry-outlook-bny-202606250937 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 09:37:28 Z
[16] Euro trades steady vs Yen as BoJ hawkish stance, fragile German sentiment limit upside URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-trades-steady-vs-yen-as-boj-hawkish-stance-fragile-german-sentiment-limit-upside-202606250937 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 09:37:07 Z
Iran War News
Updates (5):
[1] Iran, Oman discuss Hormuz shipping during 60-day period Time: 2026-06-25T11:29:32.769Z
[2] Guards chief says Israel must leave Lebanon or 'flee in defeat' Time: 2026-06-25T10:58:25.988Z
[3] Oman says future Hormuz arrangements will not include transit fees Time: 2026-06-25T10:39:03.472Z
[4] Canada says Iranian doctoral student's research could aid Tehran weapons programs Time: 2026-06-25T10:03:06.419Z
[5] Iran, India oil ministers discuss energy cooperation at BRICS meeting Time: 2026-06-25T10:00:24.249Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: RESTRICTED (since 2026-02-28, 117 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 39 of 60 normal daily β 41.9% of normal
- Throughput: 41.7% of normal (4.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 0
- Oil Prices: Brent $76.49 (-4.93%)
- War Risk Insurance: ELEVATED β 5.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS95 (+90% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost