Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-25 04:00:26 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 88% (7 aligned, 1 divergent) Status: STRONG ALIGNMENT β Strong alignment β structural signals confirm price direction
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.408 below 0.42 β institutional support weakening, 0DTE PCR 1.20 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +0.5B vol dampening |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.516 loose |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 64% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Energy FALLING β oil decline, mild equity tailwind |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +5.9% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.29% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.89 normal, SPY/DXY -0.41 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.48 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.40 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 18.6 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 145 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.13 dealer stress |
| Inflation | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | Stagflation score 12 β low inflation risk |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d +0.7% stable, MOVE 69 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: Structural signals confirm the rally β gamma, credit, and breadth align with SPY's uptrend (88% of directional signals in agreement).
Market Status
Regime: TRANSITIONAL | Score: 82/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 82 (Favorable) but regime is TRANSITIONAL β DIX below threshold (0.408) keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.408; GEX positive at 0.5B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 18.6 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $737.75 | 50 SMA $732.03 | 200 SMA $689.29 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $736.06
- QQQ: $724.29 | 50 SMA $697.79 | 200 SMA $630.16 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $716.98
- IWM: $297.57 | 50 SMA $282.76 | 200 SMA $258.62 | +0.1% from 50d | ZGL $277.5
- VIX: 18.63 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.402%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $737.75 | 37.67 | 76.2 | $736.06 | Neutral | 1.34 |
| QQQ | $724.29 | 41.51 | 100.0 | $716.98 | Bearish | 1.65 |
| IWM | $297.57 | 53.42 | 76.4 | $277.50 | Neutral | 1.06 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 18.63 | 56.58 | 98.7 | $10.50 | Neutral | 1.25 |
| TNX | 44.02 | 54.26 | 26.2 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $367.40 | 30.67 | 39.3 | $255.00 | Bearish | 11.02 |
| DXY | 101.58 | 79.87 | 23.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $52.11 | 25.90 | 22.4 | $20.00 | Bearish | 2.60 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.408
- DIX Signal: Weak
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 0.47B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.30% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 64.1%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 63.6%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 498
- Mag 7 Concentration: 30.2%
- Top 10 Concentration: 40.3%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Utilities | 90.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 78.6% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 72.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 71.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 68.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 62.7% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 61.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 58.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Energy | 21.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 20.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: FALLING
- WTI Crude: $69.80 (5d: -9.1%)
- Brent Crude: $73.18 | Spread: $3.38
- RBOB Gasoline: $2.7800/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.1000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $51.44/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $53.57
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.73
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.893 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.406 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.484 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.397 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 69.06
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.27 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 4,377,026.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 5,262,412.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.20 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $706.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $735 (Spot: $737.75)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -193,978 contracts (Z -1.20, as of 2026-06-16)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -2.8% (as of 2026-06-17)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.40%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.71 (Normal)
- DXY: 101.58
- Growth vs Value: 0.98
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.19% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.18%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.17%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 12/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6736.4B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $880.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $4.5B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,851B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,953B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,107B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,911B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $61,803 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Stealth risk: institutions pulling back (DIX 0.408) despite calm surface (VIX 18.6, breadth 64%).
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 145 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.29% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $51.44/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $106.29 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #3): max=159186B avg=108901B
- [INFO] GEX declined below 1.0B to 0.5B β dealer gamma cushion thinning.
- [INFO] Screener: VNOM β confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction n/a/100, regime range_noise, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 50% (n=3604)).
- [INFO] Screener: BCO β confluence of 3 archetypes (conviction n/a/100, regime range_noise, calibrated mechanical_reversion hit-rate 50% (n=3604)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.13%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Crude Oil Inventories: -6.088 vs Est. -3.900 (MISS) | Prev: -8.263
- New Home Sales(May): 580 vs Est. 638 (MISS) | Prev: 626
- 5-Year Note Auction: 4.200% | Prev: 4.182%
- Building Permits(May): 1.410 vs Est. 1.413 (INLINE) | Prev: 1.423
- Current Account(Q1): -226.8 vs Est. -212.0 (MISS) | Prev: -221.1
- Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: -1.077 | Prev: -1.606
- New Home Sales(MoM)(May): -7.3% | Prev: -5.7%
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-07-14
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 2026-07-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-07-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-07-17
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.41 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.86 (β0.9% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.46 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.89 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.81 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (26):
[1] United States Dollar Index holds above 101.50 ahead of US PCE inflation URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-holds-above-10150-ahead-of-us-pce-inflation-202606250730 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 07:30:26 Z
[2] Forex Today: US Dollar rally pauses ahead of critical inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-us-dollar-rally-pauses-ahead-of-critical-inflation-data-202606250723 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 07:23:30 Z
[3] US Dollar: Cooler core PCE risks and peak rally view - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-cooler-core-pce-risks-and-peak-rally-view-ing-202606250719 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 07:19:37 Z
[4] ECB's Schnabel: Interest rates need to raise further to bring inflation down to 2% target URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ecbs-schnabel-interest-rates-need-to-raise-further-to-bring-inflation-down-to-2-target-202606250717 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 07:17:04 Z
[5] Euro remains pinned near 13-month lows following soft German consumer confidence URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-remains-pinned-near-13-month-lows-following-soft-german-consumer-confidence-202606250708 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 07:08:41 Z
[6] Gold: Rates repricing weighs on haven appeal - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-rates-repricing-weighs-on-haven-appeal-bny-202606250707 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 07:07:31 Z
[7] Spain Gross Domestic Product (YoY) meets expectations (2.7%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-gross-domestic-product-yoy-meets-expectations-27-in-1q-202606250700 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 07:00:01 Z
[8] Spain Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) meets forecasts (0.6%) in 1Q URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/spain-gross-domestic-product-qoq-meets-forecasts-06-in-1q-202606250700 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 07:00:01 Z
[9] British Pound: Risk of slide toward 1.3110 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-risk-of-slide-toward-13110-against-us-dollar-uob-202606250658 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 06:58:41 Z
[10] Indian Rupee trades higher as oil prices return to pre-war levels URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-opens-strongly-as-oil-prices-return-to-pre-war-levels-202606250513 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 06:58:22 Z
[11] AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Softens to near 111.50 on intervention fears and bearish technical bias URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-jpy-price-forecast-softens-to-near-11150-on-intervention-fears-and-bearish-technical-bias-202606250654 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 06:54:53 Z
[12] Japanese Yen: Holds near 2024 low against US Dollar - MUFG URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-holds-near-2024-low-against-us-dollar-mufg-202606250649 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 06:49:46 Z
[13] France Consumer Confidence meets forecasts (84) in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/france-consumer-confidence-meets-forecasts-84-in-june-202606250646 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 06:46:51 Z
[14] Gold remains vulnerable below $4,000, November 2025 low as traders await US PCE data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-retains-bearish-bias-near-november-2025-lows-eyes-us-pce-amid-receding-fed-hike-bets-202606250343 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 06:42:11 Z
[15] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Likely to find support near 0.6830 amid hawkish Fed bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-likely-to-find-support-near-06830-amid-hawkish-fed-bets-202606250640 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 06:40:10 Z
[16] Australian Dollar: Soft data reinforce no-hike RBA view - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-soft-data-reinforce-no-hike-rba-view-commerzbank-202606250638 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 06:38:25 Z
[17] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD hovers at seven-month lows around $57 with US inflation on tap URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-hovers-at-seven-month-lows-around-57-with-us-inflation-on-tap-202606250629 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 06:29:03 Z
[18] Equities: Tech earnings offset Oil volatility - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-tech-earnings-offset-oil-volatility-danske-bank-202606250628 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 06:28:08 Z
[19] Euro: Downtrend stretched near 1.1325 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-downtrend-stretched-near-11325-against-us-dollar-uob-202606250619 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 06:19:35 Z
[20] Micron (MU) reports Q3 earnings: What key metrics have to say URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/micron-mu-reports-q3-earnings-what-key-metrics-have-to-say-202606250602 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 06:02:22 Z
[21] Euro weakens against British Pound as markets pare back ECB hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-weakens-against-british-pound-as-markets-pare-back-ecb-hike-bets-202606250600 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 06:00:43 Z
[22] Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Survey registered at -29.2, below expectations (-27.5) in July URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/germany-gfk-consumer-confidence-survey-registered-at-292-below-expectations-275-in-july-202606250600 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 06:00:01 Z
[23] US core PCE inflation expected to rise in May as Fed rate hike bets increase URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-core-pce-inflation-expected-to-rise-in-may-as-fed-rate-hike-bets-increase-202606250600 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 06:00:00 Z
[24] WTI extends decline to pre-Middle East war levels around $69 as oil flows accelerate URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-extends-decline-to-pre-middle-east-war-levels-around-69-as-oil-flows-accelerate-202606250545 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 05:45:17 Z
[25] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD rebounds to around 1.3175 during Asian session URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-rebounds-to-around-13175-during-asian-session-202606250541 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 05:41:45 Z
[26] NZD/USD Price Forecast: New Zealand Dollar falls to near 0.5650 as bearish bias prevails URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-price-forecast-new-zealand-dollar-falls-to-near-05650-as-bearish-bias-prevails-202606250535 Published: Thu, 25 Jun 2026 05:35:52 Z
Iran War News
Updates (5):
[1] Iran war oil losses push Iraq to seek higher OPEC quota - Reuters Time: 2026-06-25T07:25:33.879Z
[2] US sanctions waiver could bring Iran's oil trade out of the shadows Time: 2026-06-25T07:19:41.917Z
[3] Hormuz security will never return to past conditions, Iran lawmaker says Time: 2026-06-25T06:54:56.854Z
[4] Hormuz cannot be reshaped by aggression, UAE official says Time: 2026-06-25T06:38:39.889Z
[5] Iran negotiators have leverage to press US on deal, official says Time: 2026-06-25T06:10:15.562Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-06-22, 3 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 12 of 60 normal daily β 20.0% of normal
- Throughput: 20.0% of normal (2.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 220
- Oil Prices: Brent $84.36 (-4.83%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 26.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS459 (+818% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $1.8 billion/day economic cost