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2026-W24

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-11 06:00:47 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -1.7% (3d) | Alignment: 20% (1 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β€” Moderate divergence β€” several structural signals disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.467 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.21 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +2.5B vol dampening
Credit βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” HY OAS 2.78% moderate, NFCI -0.494 avg
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Breadth 67% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Energy ELEVATED β€” watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +3.0% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.20% restrictive
news_sentiment βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” AI news sentiment unavailable
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.85 normal, SPY/DXY -0.68 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.74 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.19 normal
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 22.2 elevated Β· SKEW 142 firm
Inflation βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Stagflation score 27 β€” moderate, watching
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 77 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain

Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish against the risk-on tape β€” 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 76/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.467; GEX positive at 2.5B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 67% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 22.2 (elevated-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $722.86 | 50 SMA $719.32 | 200 SMA $685.34 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $736.75
  • QQQ: $689.73 | 50 SMA $676.27 | 200 SMA $623.90 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $692.01
  • IWM: $280.30 | 50 SMA $276.54 | 200 SMA $256.27 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
  • VIX: 22.22 β€” 20-30 (elevated)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.542%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $722.86 37.19 56.0 $736.75 Bearish 5.90
QQQ $689.73 41.09 99.9 $692.01 Bearish 2.69
IWM $280.30 52.52 77.0 $250.00 Neutral 1.44

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 22.22 66.81 75.2 $10.00 Neutral 0.61
TNX 45.42 45.74 60.8 - - -
GLD $371.44 19.71 29.6 $285.00 Bearish 2.93
DXY 99.96 68.44 15.7 - - -
SLV $56.31 21.10 24.1 $20.00 Neutral 1.49

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.467
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.48B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.93%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.42% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.7%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 100.0%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 3
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 31.1%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Technology 100.0% 0/0
Financials 100.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: ELEVATED
  • WTI Crude: $90.37 (5d: -0.2%)
  • Brent Crude: $93.27 | Spread: $2.90
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.0700/gal
  • Heating Oil: $3.6200/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.27/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $57.39
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $11.39

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.849 normal
SPY / DXY -0.677 stretched
SPY / TNX -0.736 stretched
SPY / Oil -0.187 normal

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.03
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.29 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 615,243.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 746,712.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.21 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $98.8B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $720 (Spot: $722.86)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -220,768 contracts (Z -1.95, as of 2026-06-02)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.7% (as of 2026-06-03)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (1/4 triggers Β· CFTC specs Z -1.95Οƒ (extreme short))

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.54%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.96
  • Growth vs Value: 0.95
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.44% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 27/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6711.5B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $875.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,835B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,087B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,138B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $17,060B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,862 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.467, GEX +2.5B, HY OAS 2.78%, breadth 67%.
  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 142 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.20% β€” restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.27/bbl β€” refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $131.3 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] Regime shifted from CAUTIOUS to RISK-ON.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=146330B avg=100454B
  • [WARNING] SPY (729.59) dropped below ZGL (736.82) β€” expect amplified downside moves.
  • [INFO] SPY (732.08) reclaimed ZGL (713.36) β€” volatility dampening resumes.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: June
  • Average Return: +0.14%
  • Median Return: +0.46%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Initial Jobless Claims: ⏳ Pending
  • PPI(MoM)(May): ⏳ Pending
  • Continuing Jobless Claims: ⏳ Pending
  • Core PPI(MoM)(May): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
  • Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.6% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (28):

[1] United States Dollar Index bounces back amid US-Iran ceasefire uncertainty URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-bounces-back-amid-us-iran-ceasefire-uncertainty-202606110909 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:09:03 Z

[2] Swiss Franc: Market pricing challenges SNB stance - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/swiss-franc-market-pricing-challenges-snb-stance-bny-202606110906 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:06:18 Z

[3] European Central Bank expected to hike rates as markets look for further hawkish signals URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-set-to-hike-interest-rates-for-first-time-in-nearly-three-years-202606110700 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:00:00 Z

[4] WTI declines to near $87.50 as US, Iran talks remain intact URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-declines-to-near-8750-as-us-iran-talks-remain-intact-202606110857 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:57:51 Z

[5] USD/CAD Price Forecast: Rallies to 1.3970, fresh high since November 2025 on Oil slump URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-cad-price-forecast-rallies-to-13970-fresh-high-since-november-2025-on-oil-slump-202606110856 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:56:37 Z

[6] Euro: Testing support against US Dollar with ECB risk - Societe Generale URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-testing-support-against-us-dollar-with-ecb-risk-societe-generale-202606110856 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:56:03 Z

[7] Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD picks up above $64.00 with bears still in control URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecasts-xag-usd-picks-up-above-6400-with-bears-still-in-control-202606110846 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:46:40 Z

[8] Canadian Dollar: BoC keeps options open on energy and trade - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-boc-keeps-options-open-on-energy-and-trade-deutsche-bank-202606110840 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:40:18 Z

[9] Indian Rupee faces selling pressure as oil prices bounce back URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-slumps-as-oil-price-surges-amid-fears-of-us-iran-ceasefire-collapse-202606110502 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:39:56 Z

[10] Gold sticks to modest recovery gains near $4,100; looks to US PPI for fresh impetus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-steadies-above-ytd-low-on-softer-usd-bearish-bias-remains-amid-fed-hike-bets-202606110400 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:39:52 Z

[11] USD/CHF Price Forecast: Could test 0.8000 barrier near ascending channel top URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-chf-price-forecast-could-test-08000-barrier-near-ascending-channel-top-202606110836 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:36:49 Z

[12] Iran condemns overnight strikes on Tehran, calling them "practically meaningless" URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-condemns-overnight-strikes-on-tehran-calling-them-practically-meaningless-202606110832 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:32:12 Z

[13] Japanese Yen: Edges lower toward 160.75 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-edges-lower-toward-16075-against-us-dollar-uob-202606110827 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:27:56 Z

[14] Oil: Prices supported by Iran conflict escalation - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/oil-prices-supported-by-iran-conflict-escalation-danske-bank-202606110819 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:19:37 Z

[15] European Central Bank: War risks tilt policy hawkish - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-war-risks-tilt-policy-hawkish-rabobank-202606110810 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:10:59 Z

[16] US-Iran talks still on track despite exchange of attacks - CNN URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-iran-talks-still-on-track-despite-exchange-of-attacks-cnn-202606110809 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:09:26 Z

[17] Australian Dollar: Limited upside and bearish crosses - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-limited-upside-and-bearish-crosses-td-securities-202606110800 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 08:00:29 Z

[18] Iran says US projectile hits cargo boat in the Gulf of Oman URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/iran-says-us-projectile-hits-cargo-boat-in-the-gulf-of-oman-202606110759 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 07:59:30 Z

[19] Forex Today: Investors ignore Middle East tensions, shift focus to ECB rate decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-today-investors-ignore-middle-east-tensions-shift-focus-to-ecb-rate-decision-202606110758 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 07:58:29 Z

[20] Dow futures rise after reports of US military concluding Iran strikes URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-futures-rise-after-reports-of-us-military-concluding-iran-strikes-202606110758 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 07:58:03 Z

[21] Euro hesitates near lows against the British Pound with the ECB in focus URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-hesitates-near-lows-against-the-british-pound-with-the-ecb-in-focus-202606110752 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 07:52:22 Z

[22] Japanese Yen: Limited upside as flows deteriorate - BNY URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japanese-yen-limited-upside-as-flows-deteriorate-bny-202606110750 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 07:50:19 Z

[23] USD/JPY Price Forecast: Hovers near previous intervention levels at around 160.50 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-hovers-near-previous-intervention-levels-at-around-16050-202606110748 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 07:48:59 Z

[24] British Pound remains on the front foot vs JPY as Mideast risks counter intervention fears URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-remains-on-the-front-foot-vs-jpy-as-mideast-risks-counter-intervention-fears-202606110745 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 07:45:10 Z

[25] S&P 500: Equities slide on stagflation fears - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/sp-500-equities-slide-on-stagflation-fears-deutsche-bank-202606110742 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 07:42:52 Z

[26] Turkish Lira: Market doubts CBRT tightening resolve - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkish-lira-market-doubts-cbrt-tightening-resolve-commerzbank-202606110724 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 07:24:43 Z

[27] Euro might extend losses if the ECB delivers a dovish hike URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-might-extend-losses-if-the-ecb-delivers-a-dovish-hike-202606110720 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 07:20:14 Z

[28] Euro holds gains as traders expect ECB rate hike in June URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-holds-gains-as-traders-expect-ecb-rate-hike-in-june-202606110717 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 07:17:13 Z

Iran War News

Updates (10):

[1] Video: Fighter jets seen over Bandar Abbas amid US attacks Time: 2026-06-11T09:52:06.158Z

[2] Video: Missile launch seen over Iran's Abhar for second time in three days Time: 2026-06-11T09:45:41.615Z

[3] Kremlin urges US, Iran restraint and continued talks Time: 2026-06-11T09:44:47.907Z

[4] Iran tells vessels with Hormuz permits to remain patient Time: 2026-06-11T09:42:20.870Z

[5] Turkey urges Iran, US to halt attacks and resume talks Time: 2026-06-11T09:39:18.891Z

[6] Five wounded in US strikes on Iran, emergency chief says Time: 2026-06-11T09:29:29.265Z

[7] Kuwait says repeated Iranian attacks violate its sovereignty Time: 2026-06-11T09:13:45.265Z

[8] Saudi Arabia condemns Iran's attacks on Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait Time: 2026-06-11T09:08:21.262Z

[BREAKING] [9] Iran, US discuss frozen funds mechanism in deal push - Reuters Time: 2026-06-11T08:27:21.846Z

[10] US probes NIAC founder Trita Parsi for possible deportation - Free Press Time: 2026-06-11T08:21:41.115Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 103 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β€” 3.3% of normal
  • Throughput: 1.5% of normal (0.2M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 265
  • Oil Prices: Brent $98.29 (+5.82%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 26.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS180 (+260% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost