Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-11 04:00:41 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -1.7% (3d) | Alignment: 20% (1 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.467 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.21 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +2.5B vol dampening |
| Credit | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | HY OAS 2.78% moderate, NFCI -0.494 avg |
| Breadth | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 67% β broad participation supports rally |
| Energy | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Energy ELEVATED β watch for transmission but not yet bearish |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +3.0% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.20% restrictive |
| news_sentiment | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | AI news sentiment unavailable |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.85 normal, SPY/DXY -0.68 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.74 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.19 normal |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 22.2 elevated Β· SKEW 142 firm |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 27 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β hawkish lean but no BS drain |
Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish against the risk-on tape β 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip.
Market Status
Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 76/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.467; GEX positive at 2.5B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 67% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 22.2 (elevated-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $722.86 | 50 SMA $719.32 | 200 SMA $685.34 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $736.75
- QQQ: $689.73 | 50 SMA $676.27 | 200 SMA $623.90 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $692.01
- IWM: $280.30 | 50 SMA $276.54 | 200 SMA $256.27 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
- VIX: 22.22 β 20-30 (elevated)
- 10Y Yield: 4.542%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $722.86 | 37.19 | 56.0 | $736.75 | Bearish | 5.90 |
| QQQ | $689.73 | 41.09 | 99.9 | $692.01 | Bearish | 2.69 |
| IWM | $280.30 | 52.52 | 77.0 | $250.00 | Neutral | 1.44 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 22.22 | 66.81 | 75.2 | $10.00 | Neutral | 0.61 |
| TNX | 45.42 | 45.74 | 60.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $371.44 | 19.71 | 29.6 | $285.00 | Bearish | 2.93 |
| DXY | 99.96 | 68.44 | 15.7 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $56.31 | 21.10 | 24.1 | $20.00 | Neutral | 1.49 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.467
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.48B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.93%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.42% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.7%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 100.0%
- Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 3
- Mag 7 Concentration: 31.1%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 100.0% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 100.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: ELEVATED
- WTI Crude: $90.37 (5d: -0.2%)
- Brent Crude: $93.27 | Spread: $2.90
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.0700/gal
- Heating Oil: $3.6200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.27/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $57.39
- UNG (Nat Gas): $11.39
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.849 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.677 | stretched |
| SPY / TNX | -0.736 | stretched |
| SPY / Oil | -0.187 | normal |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.03
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.29 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 615,243.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 746,712.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.21 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $98.8B
- Gamma Call Wall: $750 | Put Wall: $720 (Spot: $722.86)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -220,768 contracts (Z -1.95, as of 2026-06-02)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.7% (as of 2026-06-03)
- Squeeze Setup: none (1/4 triggers Β· CFTC specs Z -1.95Ο (extreme short))
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.54%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.96
- Growth vs Value: 0.95
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
- Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.44% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 27/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6711.5B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $875.7B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,835B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,087B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,138B
- Global Net Liquidity: $17,060B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $62,668 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.467, GEX +2.5B, HY OAS 2.78%, breadth 67%.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 142 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.20% β restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.27/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $131.3 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] Regime shifted from CAUTIOUS to RISK-ON.
- [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=146330B avg=100454B
- [WARNING] SPY (729.59) dropped below ZGL (736.82) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (732.08) reclaimed ZGL (713.36) β volatility dampening resumes.
Seasonality
- Current Month: June
- Average Return: +0.14%
- Median Return: +0.46%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Initial Jobless Claims: β³ Pending
- PPI(MoM)(May): β³ Pending
- Continuing Jobless Claims: β³ Pending
- Core PPI(MoM)(May): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
- Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (β4.7% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (β0.6% vs 30d)
- META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (β0.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (β6.5% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (16):
[1] European Central Bank: June hike seen with focus on signals - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-june-hike-seen-with-focus-on-signals-danske-bank-202606110714 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 07:14:25 Z
[2] British Pound: Range trading against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-range-trading-against-us-dollar-uob-202606110704 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 07:04:55 Z
[3] European Central Bank set to hike interest rates for first time in nearly three years URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-set-to-hike-interest-rates-for-first-time-in-nearly-three-years-202606110700 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 07:00:00 Z
[4] Indian Rupee tumbles as fears of US-Iran ceasefire collapse push oil prices higher URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-slumps-as-oil-price-surges-amid-fears-of-us-iran-ceasefire-collapse-202606110502 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 06:59:28 Z
[5] Gold struggles to extend recovery from YTD low, remains below $4,100 amid Fed hike bets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-steadies-above-ytd-low-on-softer-usd-bearish-bias-remains-amid-fed-hike-bets-202606110400 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 06:55:36 Z
[6] Gold: Losses extend with stronger yields - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-losses-extend-with-stronger-yields-ing-202606110653 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 06:53:38 Z
[7] New Zealand Dollar softens below 0.5800 ahead of US PPI release URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-softens-below-05800-ahead-of-us-ppi-release-202606110653 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 06:53:21 Z
[8] Euro: ECB outlook limits upside against US Dollar - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-ecb-outlook-limits-upside-against-us-dollar-commerzbank-202606110644 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 06:44:39 Z
[9] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Finds support below 61.8% Fibo retracement at 0.7000 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-finds-support-below-618-fibo-retracement-at-07000-202606110643 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 06:43:54 Z
[10] Apollo calls bs on tokenomics but the AI invoice still matters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/apollo-calls-bs-on-tokenomics-but-the-ai-invoice-still-matters-202606110632 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 06:32:09 Z
[11] Equities: Risk-off rotation after weak global sentiment - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/equities-risk-off-rotation-after-weak-global-sentiment-danske-bank-202606110629 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 06:29:36 Z
[12] Euro: Downside risk capped by 1.1500 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-downside-risk-capped-by-11500-against-us-dollar-uob-202606110612 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 06:12:50 Z
[13] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $64 on hopes that US-Iran ceasefire remains intact URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-rises-to-near-64-on-hopes-that-us-iran-ceasefire-remains-intact-202606110554 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 05:54:37 Z
[14] WTI tumbles below $89.00 despite renewed US-Iran tensions URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-drifts-higher-to-near-8950-as-us-launches-renewed-strikes-against-iran-202606110530 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 05:30:56 Z
[15] Canadian Dollar advances as Middle East uncertainty weighs on US Dollar URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-advances-as-middle-east-uncertainty-weighs-on-us-dollar-202606110523 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 05:23:36 Z
[16] GBP/USD Price Forecast: Eyes 1.3400 amid modest USD weakness; remains below weekly top URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gbp-usd-price-forecast-eyes-13400-amid-modest-usd-weakness-remains-below-weekly-top-202606110521 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 05:21:18 Z
Iran War News
Updates (10):
[BREAKING] [1] US projectile hit Iran's vessel in Sea of Oman, Iranian governor says Time: 2026-06-11T07:39:40.461Z
[BREAKING] [2] Italy PM says Europe should be ready for new Iran sanctions Time: 2026-06-11T07:31:51.535Z
[BREAKING] [3] China says regional states' security must be respected after US strikes on Iran Time: 2026-06-11T07:24:32.911Z
[4] Jordan downed 20 missiles launched from Iran Time: 2026-06-11T07:20:57.080Z
[5] Pakistan, Egypt foreign ministers discuss regional mediation Time: 2026-06-11T07:19:29.915Z
[BREAKING] [6] Tanker catches fire off Oman, UKMTO says Time: 2026-06-11T07:16:08.603Z
[BREAKING] [7] India says it is monitoring vessel incident off Oman Time: 2026-06-11T06:58:16.664Z
[8] Qatari negotiators leave Tehran after overnight Iran talks - Reuters Time: 2026-06-11T06:47:33.681Z
[9] Bahrain says 11-year-old girl lightly injured following Iran attack Time: 2026-06-11T06:21:27.570Z
[BREAKING] [10] IRGC says approaching Hormuz will mean aiding enemy Time: 2026-06-11T06:07:56.293Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 103 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 2 of 60 normal daily β 3.3% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 265
- Oil Prices: Brent $98.29 (+5.82%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 32.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS320 (+540% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.5 billion/day economic cost