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2026-W24

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-06-11 08:00:59 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY -1.7% (3d) | Alignment: 20% (1 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β€” Moderate divergence β€” several structural signals disagree with price

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ“ ALIGNED DIX 0.467 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.21 put-heavy
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT GEX +2.5B vol dampening
Credit βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” HY OAS 2.78% moderate, NFCI -0.494 avg
Breadth 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT Breadth 67% β€” broad participation supports rally
Energy βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Energy ELEVATED β€” watch for transmission but not yet bearish
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold +3.0% growth optimism Β· real yield 2.20% restrictive
news_sentiment βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” AI news sentiment unavailable
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT SPY/VIX -0.85 normal, SPY/DXY -0.68 stretched, SPY/TNX -0.74 stretched, SPY/Oil -0.19 normal
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 22.2 elevated Β· SKEW 142 firm
Inflation βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Stagflation score 27 β€” moderate, watching
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ— DIVERGENT USD/JPY 5d +0.3% stable, MOVE 77 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate, cut prob 11% β€” hawkish lean but no BS drain

Divergence read: SPY slipping but gamma, breadth, and correlations flash bullish against the risk-on tape β€” 4 structural signals refuse to confirm the dip.

Market Status

Regime: RISK-ON | Score: 76/100 (Favorable) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.

Leading indicators show DIX stable at 0.467; GEX positive at 2.5B (vol-suppressing); breadth rising to 67% (participation broadening). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 22.2 (elevated-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $722.86 | 50 SMA $719.32 | 200 SMA $685.34 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $736.75
  • QQQ: $689.73 | 50 SMA $676.27 | 200 SMA $623.90 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $692.01
  • IWM: $280.30 | 50 SMA $276.54 | 200 SMA $256.27 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $250.0
  • VIX: 22.22 β€” 20-30 (elevated)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.542%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $722.86 37.19 56.0 $736.75 Bearish 5.90
QQQ $689.73 41.09 99.9 $692.01 Bearish 2.69
IWM $280.30 52.52 77.0 $250.00 Neutral 1.44

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 22.22 66.81 75.2 $10.00 Neutral 0.61
TNX 45.42 45.74 60.8 - - -
GLD $371.44 19.71 29.6 $285.00 Bearish 2.93
DXY 99.96 68.44 15.7 - - -
SLV $56.31 21.10 24.1 $20.00 Neutral 1.49

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.467
  • DIX Signal: Moderate buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 2.48B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.78% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.93%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.42% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 66.7%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 100.0%
  • Breadth Signal: Strong Bullish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 3
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 31.1%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 41.2%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Technology 100.0% 0/0
Financials 100.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: ELEVATED
  • WTI Crude: $90.37 (5d: -0.2%)
  • Brent Crude: $93.27 | Spread: $2.90
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.0700/gal
  • Heating Oil: $3.6200/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $46.27/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $57.39
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $11.39

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.849 normal
SPY / DXY -0.677 stretched
SPY / TNX -0.736 stretched
SPY / Oil -0.187 normal

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 77.03
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.29 (Equity Vol Elevated vs Rates)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 615,243.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 746,712.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.21 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $98.8B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $737 | Put Wall: $720 (Spot: $722.86)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
  • Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -220,768 contracts (Z -1.95, as of 2026-06-02)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -0.7% (as of 2026-06-03)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (1/4 triggers Β· CFTC specs Z -1.95Οƒ (extreme short))

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.54%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 0.91 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.96
  • Growth vs Value: 0.95
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-07-29
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold 84.0% | Cut 11.0%

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.44% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.34%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.24%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 27/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6711.5B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $875.7B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,835B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$7,087B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,138B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $17,060B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $63,010 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [INFO] Full bullish alignment: DIX 0.467, GEX +2.5B, HY OAS 2.78%, breadth 67%.
  • [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β€” expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 142 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [WARNING] 10Y real yield at 2.20% β€” restrictive monetary conditions weighing on growth assets.
  • [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $46.27/bbl β€” refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $131.3 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] Regime shifted from CAUTIOUS to RISK-ON.
  • [WARNING] Pack size threshold breach (refresh #2): max=146330B avg=100454B
  • [WARNING] SPY (729.59) dropped below ZGL (736.82) β€” expect amplified downside moves.
  • [INFO] SPY (732.08) reclaimed ZGL (713.36) β€” volatility dampening resumes.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: June
  • Average Return: +0.14%
  • Median Return: +0.46%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Initial Jobless Claims: ⏳ Pending
  • PPI(MoM)(May): ⏳ Pending
  • Continuing Jobless Claims: ⏳ Pending
  • Core PPI(MoM)(May): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Industrial Production: 2026-06-15
  • Retail Sales: 2026-06-17
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-06-23
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-06-25
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-07-02

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $5.39 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-07-14): EPS Est. $13.74 (↓4.7% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-07-22): EPS Est. $0.45 (↑0.4% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-07-23): EPS Est. $2.87 (↓0.2% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $4.24 (↑0.6% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-07-29): EPS Est. $7.20 (↓0.4% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.90 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-07-30): EPS Est. $1.82 (↓0.1% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-08-20): EPS Est. $0.74 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-08-26): EPS Est. $2.08 (↑6.5% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (24):

[1] US Dollar: Firm tone with sticky inflation - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-firm-tone-with-sticky-inflation-bbh-202606111115 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 11:15:59 Z

[2] Euro: Limited upside against US Dollar on fully priced ECB - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-limited-upside-against-us-dollar-on-fully-priced-ecb-ing-202606111108 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 11:08:03 Z

[3] Indian Rupee slumps amid concerns over sustainability of US-Iran ceasefire URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/indian-rupee-slumps-as-oil-price-surges-amid-fears-of-us-iran-ceasefire-collapse-202606110502 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 11:04:28 Z

[4] South Africa Manufacturing Production Index (YoY) declined to -2.9% in April from previous 0.9% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-manufacturing-production-index-yoy-declined-to-29-in-april-from-previous-09-202606111100 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 11:00:06 Z

[5] British Pound trades with caution ahead of UK monthly GDP data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-trades-with-caution-ahead-of-uk-monthly-gdp-data-202606111055 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 10:55:59 Z

[6] Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD attempts to bounce up from the $4,000 psychological area URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-attempts-to-bounce-up-from-the-4-000-psychological-area-202606111049 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 10:49:50 Z

[7] European Central Bank poised for its first hike in nearly three years as inflation risks resurface URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-set-to-hike-interest-rates-for-first-time-in-nearly-three-years-202606110700 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 10:45:00 Z

[8] Is SpaceX worth $1.75 trillion? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/is-spacex-worth-175-trillion-202606111037 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 10:37:16 Z

[9] Canadian Dollar: BoC caution limits gains against US Dollar - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-boc-caution-limits-gains-against-us-dollar-commerzbank-202606111009 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 10:09:23 Z

[10] Australian Dollar remains depressed near two-month lows in risk-off markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-remains-depressed-near-two-month-lows-in-risk-off-markets-202606111008 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 10:08:24 Z

[11] Ireland HICP (YoY) meets forecasts (3.5%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-hicp-yoy-meets-forecasts-35-in-may-202606111000 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 10:00:03 Z

[12] Ireland Consumer Price Index (MoM) down to -0.1% in May from previous 0.5% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-consumer-price-index-mom-down-to-01-in-may-from-previous-05-202606111000 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 10:00:03 Z

[13] Ireland HICP (MoM) came in at -0.2%, below expectations (-0.1%) in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-hicp-mom-came-in-at-02-below-expectations-01-in-may-202606111000 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 10:00:03 Z

[14] Ireland Consumer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 3.7% to 3.6% in May URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/ireland-consumer-price-index-yoy-dipped-from-previous-37-to-36-in-may-202606111000 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 10:00:03 Z

[15] US Dollar: Uptrend seen intact into FOMC - TD Securities URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-uptrend-seen-intact-into-fomc-td-securities-202606110957 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:57:54 Z

[16] Bank of Canada: Policy hold as recession concerns linger - Rabobank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bank-of-canada-policy-hold-as-recession-concerns-linger-rabobank-202606110949 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:49:21 Z

[17] Euro: Downside risk against US Dollar as ECB hikes - BBH URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-downside-risk-against-us-dollar-as-ecb-hikes-bbh-202606110940 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:40:49 Z

[18] Euro trades flat vs Yen as ECB guidance focus, intervention fears cap gains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/euro-trades-flat-vs-yen-as-ecb-guidance-focus-intervention-fears-cap-gains-202606110939 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:39:21 Z

[19] South Africa Business Confidence Index declined to 123.6 in April from previous 131.3 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-business-confidence-index-declined-to-1236-in-april-from-previous-1313-202606110932 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:32:48 Z

[20] Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-today-silver-rises-according-to-fxstreet-data-202606110931 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:31:43 Z

[21] Turkish Lira: Hawkish CBRT tone but lira risks ahead - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/turkish-lira-hawkish-cbrt-tone-but-lira-risks-ahead-ing-202606110930 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:30:24 Z

[22] South Africa Business Confidence Index dipped from previous 131.3 to 124.1 in April URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/south-africa-business-confidence-index-dipped-from-previous-1313-to-1241-in-april-202606110930 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:30:00 Z

[23] European Central Bank: Focus shifts to forward guidance - Commerzbank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-focus-shifts-to-forward-guidance-commerzbank-202606110922 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:22:07 Z

[24] The IPO of the century: SpaceX and what we can learn from XTB clients URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/the-ipo-of-the-century-spacex-and-what-we-can-learn-from-xtb-clients-202606110916 Published: Thu, 11 Jun 2026 09:16:35 Z

Iran War News

Updates (10):

[1] US says it disabled third tanker over Iran blockade breach Time: 2026-06-11T11:33:38.028Z

[2] Video: Fuel queues form in Kerman after second night of strikes on Iran Time: 2026-06-11T11:24:56.173Z

[3] Video: Child wearing Basij uniform seen at Tehran checkpoint Time: 2026-06-11T11:23:27.586Z

[4] War damage adds new strain to Iran's blackout-prone power grid Time: 2026-06-11T11:22:22.474Z

[5] Video: Explosion shockwave hits home near Karaj Time: 2026-06-11T11:21:20.198Z

[6] Video: Explosion near southern Tehran university sends smoke into sky Time: 2026-06-11T11:19:53.496Z

[BREAKING] [7] Explosion heard in Iran's southern city of Sirik - state TV Time: 2026-06-11T11:17:09.277Z

[8] US strikes on 'clear aggression' against sovereignty, deputy FM says Time: 2026-06-11T11:09:05.392Z

[9] IRGC-linked Tasnim denies final US-Iran text agreed Time: 2026-06-11T10:47:32.215Z

[10] Three LNG tankers exit Strait of Hormuz with trackers off - Reuters Time: 2026-06-11T10:43:56.630Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-03-04, 99 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 16 of 60 normal daily β€” 2.1% of normal
  • Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 265
  • Oil Prices: Brent $97.46 (+0.17%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 26.7x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS450 (+800% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost