ULTA
Ulta Beauty
Screener candidate detail · 2 active archetypes
Active
2
archetypes
History
37
rows
Days on list
2
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
4 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
N3 · Failed Breakoutprimedpersisting
score: 0.404confluence: 2days: 2as of 2026-07-15
Triggers:quality:passrecent_breakout_above:sma20failure_bar:-0.6%failure_vol:weak:0.74sustained_below
Dislocation:
Breakout Level
sma20
Dist 52w High
-0.34
Sma Dist 20
0.01
Recent Push
Yes
Below Level
Yes
Failure Bar
Yes
Sustained Below
Yes
1-day return
-0.64%
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationpartialpersisting
score: 0.125confluence: 1days: 28as of 2026-07-17
Triggers:regime:structural_deratefragility_gate:not_fragile (derate without structural confirm)
Dislocation:
Regime Tag
structural_derate
Fragile
No
Gate Abstained
No
Fragility Reasons
beta 0.10 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -14.0% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 67 >= 60 (elevated)
Fragility Legs Fired
2.00
Credit Amplified
No
Derate Depth Below 200d
0.14
Sma Dist 200
-0.14
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragilityactive
15 days
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragilityactive
4 daysripe: Loaded
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
12 days
A2 · Oversold Sympathy
6 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 2/6 directionally right · mean -1.6% · small sample, illustrative not proof
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-07-14 → 2026-07-174 bars
-3.5%dropped
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-30 → 2026-07-012 bars
-1.1%closed
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-06-29 → 2026-07-013 bars
+2.5%dropped
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragility2026-06-22 → 2026-07-2121 bars
-3.8%dropped
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
-3.8%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-04 → 2026-06-052 bars
+0.2%closed
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.125 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.10 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -14.0% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 67 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-16 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.133 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.11 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -14.2% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 73 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-15 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.404 | 2 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-15 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.404 | 2 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.13 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -16.6% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 71 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-14 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.267 | 2 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-14 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.216 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.21 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -16.1% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 71 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-13 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.353 | 2 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.33 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.600 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: 0.60% · 1-day return: 0.60% · Beta (60d): 0.62 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.64% |
| 2026-07-13 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.891 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: -6.19% · 1-day return: -6.19% · Beta (60d): 0.38 · Sector return (1d): 2.38% · Sector return: 2.38% · Borrowed drop: -7.09% |
| 2026-07-13 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.187 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.21 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -15.4% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 72 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-10 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.220 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.26 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -16.2% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 73 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-09 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.337 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.27 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -17.8% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 73 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-08 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.388 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.28 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -18.7% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 74 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-07 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.405 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.30 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -19.0% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 75 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.600 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: 0.60% · 1-day return: 0.60% · Beta (60d): 0.62 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.64% |
| 2026-07-06 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.891 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -6.19% · 1-day return: -6.19% · Beta (60d): 0.38 · Sector return (1d): 2.38% · Sector return: 2.38% · Borrowed drop: -7.09% |
| 2026-06-29 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.353 | 2 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.33 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-29 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.891 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -6.19% · 1-day return: -6.19% · Beta (60d): 0.38 · Sector return (1d): 2.38% · Sector return: 2.38% · Borrowed drop: -7.09% |
| 2026-06-29 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.353 | 2 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.53 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -15.6% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 75 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.600 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.60% · 1-day return: 0.60% · Beta (60d): 0.62 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.64% |
| 2026-06-24 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.170 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.69 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -14.9% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 75 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-23 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.160 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.24% · 1-day return: -1.24% · Beta (60d): 0.74 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.01 · Spy Ret Pct: -1.20% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.35% |
| 2026-06-23 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.160 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.74 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -18.4% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 67 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-22 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.412 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.72 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -17.4% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 70 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.465 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.19% · 1-day return: 1.19% · Beta (60d): 0.75 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 1.19% |
| 2026-06-21 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.536 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.75 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -19.1% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 71 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.466 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.19% · 1-day return: 1.19% · Beta (60d): 0.75 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 1.19% |
| 2026-06-20 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.466 | 1 | new | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.75 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -19.1% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 71 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.468 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.19% · 1-day return: 1.19% · Beta (60d): 0.75 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 1.19% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.472 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.21% · 1-day return: 1.21% · Beta (60d): 0.75 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.874 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.83% · 1-day return: -2.83% · Beta (60d): 0.74 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.557 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: -4.90% · 1-day return: -4.90% · Beta (60d): 1.04 · Sector return (1d): -0.73% · Sector return: -0.73% · Borrowed drop: -4.14% |
| 2026-06-16 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.653 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.70% · 1-day return: -1.70% · Beta (60d): 0.65 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-15 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.399 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.83% · 1-day return: 0.83% · Beta (60d): 0.62 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-14 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.769 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.84% · 1-day return: -1.84% · Beta (60d): 0.59 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-10 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.557 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -4.90% · 1-day return: -4.90% · Beta (60d): 1.04 · Sector return (1d): -0.73% · Sector return: -0.73% · Borrowed drop: -4.14% |
| 2026-06-03 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.557 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.90% · 1-day return: -4.90% · Beta (60d): 1.04 · Sector return (1d): -0.73% · Sector return: -0.73% · Borrowed drop: -4.14% |