TSCO
Tractor Supply
Screener candidate detail · 4 active archetypes
Active
4
archetypes
History
40
rows
Days on list
34
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
6 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationpartialpersisting
score: 0.726confluence: 3days: 34as of 2026-07-27
Triggers:regime:structural_deratefragility_gate:not_fragile (derate without structural confirm)
Dislocation:
Regime Tag
structural_derate
Fragile
No
Gate Abstained
No
Fragility Reasons
beta -0.14 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -29.1% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 71 >= 60 (elevated)
Fragility Legs Fired
2.00
Credit Amplified
No
Derate Depth Below 200d
0.29
Sma Dist 200
-0.29
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
N3 · Failed Breakoutprimedpersisting
score: 0.712confluence: 2days: 8as of 2026-07-20
Triggers:quality:passrecent_breakout_above:sma20failure_bar:-0.7%failure_vol:weak:0.60sustained_below
Dislocation:
Breakout Level
sma20
Dist 52w High
-0.51
Sma Dist 20
-0.01
Recent Push
Yes
Below Level
Yes
Failure Bar
Yes
Sustained Below
Yes
1-day return
-0.69%
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
N6 · PEAD Miss Driftprimedpersisting
score: 0.657confluence: 2days: 4as of 2026-07-27
Triggers:quality:passeps_miss:primed (-0.159 <= -0.1)earnings_4d_ago
Dislocation:
Eps Surprise
-0.16
Days Since Earnings
4.00
Recency Max
10.00
Primed Floor
-0.10
Partial Floor
-0.03
Direction Of Evidence
pead_miss_continuation
Honesty Caveat
PROVISIONAL. Validated in a single calm post-2022 regime only — no bear in-sample. rank-IC 5d +0.128 [+0.034,+0.216]; 10d +0.125 (shared PEAD evidence; miss tail: −1.42%/−1.62% at 5d/10d). DISTINCT FROM A1 short-side equivalent — N6 fires on the MISS regardless of whether price gapped (continuation, not reversal). CONTEXT — never advice.
Analyst
[object Object]
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
N5 · Revision Collapseprimedpersisting
score: 0.657confluence: 2days: 13as of 2026-07-27
Triggers:analyst_cluster:cluster_downpt_revision_down:-1125.0%downtrend:sma_dist_200 -28.4%
Dislocation:
Analyst Cluster State
cluster_down
Pt Change 30d Pct
-11.25%
Negative Pt Trail
Yes
Downtrend Confirmed
Yes
Sma Downtrend
Yes
Ret Downtrend
No
Sma Dist 200
-0.28
Ret 20d
0.02
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragilityactive
10 days
N6 · PEAD Miss Driftshort fragilityactive
2 daysripe: Loaded
N5 · Revision Collapseshort fragilityactive
2 daysripe: Loaded
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragilityactive
8 daysripe: Loaded
A2 · Oversold Sympathy
8 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
10 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 3/4 directionally right · mean +1.4% · small sample, illustrative not proof
N5 · Revision Collapseshort fragility2026-07-16 → open8 bars
-5.8%open · MTM
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-07-14 → open10 bars
-7.2%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-07 → 2026-07-082 bars
-1.8%closed
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragility2026-06-25 → open22 bars
-5.6%open · MTM
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
+1.3%closed
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-06-11 → 2026-06-186 bars
+5.7%dropped
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-03 → 2026-06-1812 bars
+0.4%closed
1 episode could not be priced (missing OHLCV) and is omitted.
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | N6 · PEAD Miss Drift | primed | 0.657 | 2 | persisting | Eps Surprise: -0.16 · Days Since Earnings: 4.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: -0.10 · Partial Floor: -0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_miss_continuation |
| 2026-07-27 | N5 · Revision Collapse | primed | 0.657 | 2 | persisting | Analyst Cluster State: cluster_down · Pt Change 30d Pct: -11.25% · Negative Pt Trail: Yes · Downtrend Confirmed: Yes · Sma Downtrend: Yes · Ret Downtrend: No |
| 2026-07-27 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.726 | 3 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta -0.14 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -29.1% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 71 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-24 | N6 · PEAD Miss Drift | primed | 0.739 | 2 | new | Eps Surprise: -0.16 · Days Since Earnings: 1.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: -0.10 · Partial Floor: -0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_miss_continuation |
| 2026-07-24 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.739 | 2 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta -0.13 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -30.3% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 72 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-23 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.880 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta -0.13 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -32.0% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 72 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-22 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.914 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta -0.03 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -34.4% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 69 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-21 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.907 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta -0.09 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -33.9% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 68 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-20 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.712 | 2 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.51 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-20 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.752 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: -4.97% · 1-day return: -4.97% · Beta (60d): 0.20 · Sector return (1d): 0.76% · Sector return: 0.76% · Borrowed drop: -5.12% |
| 2026-07-20 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.712 | 2 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta -0.04 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -32.7% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 67 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-17 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.859 | 2 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.50 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-17 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.859 | 2 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta -0.06 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -32.4% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 68 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-15 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.582 | 3 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.51 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-15 | N5 · Revision Collapse | primed | 0.582 | 3 | new | Analyst Cluster State: cluster_down · Pt Change 30d Pct: -6.93% · Negative Pt Trail: Yes · Downtrend Confirmed: Yes · Sma Downtrend: Yes · Ret Downtrend: Yes |
| 2026-07-15 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.582 | 3 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.18 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -33.5% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 67 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-13 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.490 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.51 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.109 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: 1.48% · 1-day return: 1.48% · Beta (60d): 0.48 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.23% |
| 2026-07-13 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.752 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -4.97% · 1-day return: -4.97% · Beta (60d): 0.20 · Sector return (1d): 0.76% · Sector return: 0.76% · Borrowed drop: -5.12% |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.109 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: 1.48% · 1-day return: 1.48% · Beta (60d): 0.48 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.23% |
| 2026-07-06 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.752 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -4.97% · 1-day return: -4.97% · Beta (60d): 0.20 · Sector return (1d): 0.76% · Sector return: 0.76% · Borrowed drop: -5.12% |
| 2026-06-30 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.853 | 2 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.51 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-30 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.825 | 2 | exited | 1-day return: -4.35% · 1-day return: -4.35% · Beta (60d): 0.43 · Sector return (1d): 1.78% · Sector return: 1.78% · Borrowed drop: -5.11% |
| 2026-06-30 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.903 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.49 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -33.0% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 71 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-29 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.907 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.49 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -33.4% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 71 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.109 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.48% · 1-day return: 1.48% · Beta (60d): 0.48 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.23% |
| 2026-06-23 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.825 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -4.35% · 1-day return: -4.35% · Beta (60d): 0.43 · Sector return (1d): 1.78% · Sector return: 1.78% · Borrowed drop: -5.11% |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.498 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.43% · 1-day return: -1.43% · Beta (60d): 0.47 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.28% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.594 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.63% · 1-day return: 1.63% · Beta (60d): 0.48 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 1.63% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.600 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.63% · 1-day return: 1.63% · Beta (60d): 0.48 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 1.63% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.607 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.63% · 1-day return: 1.63% · Beta (60d): 0.48 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 1.63% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.607 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.62% · 1-day return: 1.62% · Beta (60d): 0.46 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.659 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.53% · 1-day return: -1.53% · Beta (60d): 0.44 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-16 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.853 | 2 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.51 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-16 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.853 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.19% · 1-day return: -2.19% · Beta (60d): 0.44 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-16 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.825 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.35% · 1-day return: -4.35% · Beta (60d): 0.43 · Sector return (1d): 1.78% · Sector return: 1.78% · Borrowed drop: -5.11% |
| 2026-06-15 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.670 | 2 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.50 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-11 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.079 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.50 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-09 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.830 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -5.73% · 1-day return: -5.73% · Beta (60d): — · Sector return (1d): — · Sector return: — · Borrowed drop: — |
| 2026-06-02 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.830 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -5.73% · 1-day return: -5.73% · Beta (60d): — · Sector return (1d): — · Sector return: — · Borrowed drop: — |