TOL
Toll Brothers
Screener candidate detail · 2 active archetypes
Active
2
archetypes
History
31
rows
Days on list
2
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
5 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
P1 · Pair Divergencepartialpersisting
score: 0.312confluence: 1days: 2as of 2026-07-15
Triggers:quality:passtwin:PHMcorrelation:0.90spread_z:+2.17laggard:rich_laggard → short_fragility
Dislocation:
Pair Twin
PHM
Pair Correlation
0.90
Pair Spread Z
2.17
Pair Direction
short_fragility
Pair State
partial
Gate pass
Yes
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
N3 · Failed Breakoutprimednew
score: 0.250confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-07-17
Triggers:quality:passrecent_breakout_above:sma20failure_bar:-1.4%failure_vol:weak:0.07sustained_below
Dislocation:
Breakout Level
sma20
Dist 52w High
-0.07
Sma Dist 20
-0.01
Recent Push
Yes
Below Level
Yes
Failure Bar
Yes
Sustained Below
Yes
1-day return
-1.37%
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragilityactive
5 days
P1 · Pair Divergenceshort fragilityactive
2 days
A2 · Oversold Sympathy
8 days
A3 · Positioning Extreme
4 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
12 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 6/8 directionally right · mean +2.9% · small sample, illustrative not proof
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-20 → open6 bars
-0.5%open · MTM
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-07-17 → 2026-07-213 bars
+3.3%dropped
P1 · Pair Divergenceshort fragility2026-07-15 → 2026-07-173 bars
-2.8%dropped
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-09 → 2026-07-102 bars
+1.5%dropped
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-02 → 2026-07-062 bars
-1.6%dropped
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-06-29 → 2026-07-065 bars
+6.0%dropped
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
+11.0%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-11 → 2026-06-122 bars
+5.0%closed
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-04 → 2026-06-083 bars
+1.2%closed
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.085 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.29% · 1-day return: -3.29% · Beta (60d): 1.49 · Sector return (1d): -1.63% · Sector return: -1.63% · Borrowed drop: -0.86% |
| 2026-07-17 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.250 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.07 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-17 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.085 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -3.29% · 1-day return: -3.29% · Beta (60d): 1.49 · Sector return (1d): -1.63% · Sector return: -1.63% · Borrowed drop: -0.86% |
| 2026-07-16 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | exited | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: -0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.34 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-07-15 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.144 | 1 | decayed | Breakout Level: 52w_high · Dist 52w High: -0.01 · Sma Dist 20: 0.08 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-15 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.163 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -4.09% · 1-day return: -4.09% · Beta (60d): 1.44 · Sector return (1d): -1.80% · Sector return: -1.80% · Borrowed drop: -1.49% |
| 2026-07-15 | P1 · Pair Divergence | partial | 0.312 | 1 | persisting | Pair Twin: PHM · Pair Correlation: 0.90 · Pair Spread Z: 2.17 · Pair Direction: short_fragility · Pair State: partial · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-07-14 | P1 · Pair Divergence | partial | 0.356 | 1 | new | Pair Twin: PHM · Pair Correlation: 0.90 · Pair Spread Z: 2.23 · Pair Direction: short_fragility · Pair State: partial · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.917 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: 1.26% · 1-day return: 1.26% · Beta (60d): 1.52 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -4.21% |
| 2026-07-08 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.163 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -4.09% · 1-day return: -4.09% · Beta (60d): 1.44 · Sector return (1d): -1.80% · Sector return: -1.80% · Borrowed drop: -1.49% |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.917 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: 1.26% · 1-day return: 1.26% · Beta (60d): 1.52 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -4.21% |
| 2026-07-01 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.144 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: 52w_high · Dist 52w High: -0.01 · Sma Dist 20: 0.08 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-01 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.796 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -4.58% · 1-day return: -4.58% · Beta (60d): 1.48 · Sector return (1d): 0.69% · Sector return: 0.69% · Borrowed drop: -5.60% |
| 2026-06-30 | N3 · Failed Breakout | partial | 0.153 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: 52w_high · Dist 52w High: -0.01 · Sma Dist 20: 0.10 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-29 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.010 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: 52w_high · Dist 52w High: -0.01 · Sma Dist 20: 0.11 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.917 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.26% · 1-day return: 1.26% · Beta (60d): 1.52 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -4.21% |
| 2026-06-25 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | decayed | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: -0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.34 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-06-24 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.012 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: -3.70% · 1-day return: -3.70% · Beta (60d): 1.66 · Sector return (1d): -2.08% · Sector return: -2.08% · Borrowed drop: -0.25% |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.665 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.44% · 1-day return: -2.44% · Beta (60d): 1.61 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.91% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.907 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.94% · 1-day return: 3.94% · Beta (60d): 1.59 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 3.94% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.910 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.94% · 1-day return: 3.94% · Beta (60d): 1.59 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 3.94% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.915 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.94% · 1-day return: 3.94% · Beta (60d): 1.59 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 3.94% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.956 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 5.02% · 1-day return: 5.02% · Beta (60d): 1.58 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.826 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.38% · 1-day return: -2.38% · Beta (60d): 1.56 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.012 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.70% · 1-day return: -3.70% · Beta (60d): 1.66 · Sector return (1d): -2.08% · Sector return: -2.08% · Borrowed drop: -0.25% |
| 2026-06-16 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.923 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 4.11% · 1-day return: 4.11% · Beta (60d): 1.66 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-15 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.504 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.09% · 1-day return: 1.09% · Beta (60d): 1.69 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-14 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.038 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.07% · 1-day return: -0.07% · Beta (60d): 1.73 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-10 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.012 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -3.70% · 1-day return: -3.70% · Beta (60d): 1.66 · Sector return (1d): -2.08% · Sector return: -2.08% · Borrowed drop: -0.25% |
| 2026-06-04 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: -0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.34 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-06-03 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.00 · Dist 52w Low: 0.32 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |