PHM
PulteGroup
Screener candidate detail · 5 active archetypes
Active
5
archetypes
History
37
rows
Days on list
55
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
7 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
A3 · Positioning Extremepartialpersisting
score: 0.084confluence: 2days: 55as of 2026-07-27
Triggers:short_pct 4.8% (below 15% floor)days_to_cover 6.32 (extreme)ret_20d -5.2% (falling)dist_52w_low +18.9% (above lows)price_holding:not_confirmedskew:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design)quality:pass
Dislocation:
Short Pct Float
4.84
Days To Cover
6.32
Ret 20d
-0.05
Dist 52w Low
0.19
Short Extreme
Yes
Short Pct Extreme
No
Days To Cover Extreme
Yes
Price Holding
No
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
A8 · PEAD Beat Driftpartialpersisting
score: 0.084confluence: 2days: 4as of 2026-07-27
Triggers:quality:passeps_beat:partial (0.051 in [0.03,0.1))earnings_5d_ago
Dislocation:
Eps Surprise
0.05
Days Since Earnings
5.00
Recency Max
10.00
Primed Floor
0.10
Partial Floor
0.03
Direction Of Evidence
pead_beat_continuation
Honesty Caveat
PROVISIONAL. Validated in a single calm post-2022 regime only — no bear in-sample. rank-IC 5d +0.128 [+0.034,+0.216]; 10d +0.125. DISTINCT FROM A1 (A1 is contrarian gap-down recovery; A8 is continuation in the beat direction, no gap-down required). CONTEXT — never advice.
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
P1 · Pair Divergencepartialnew
score: 0.752confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-07-22
Triggers:quality:passtwin:DHIcorrelation:0.92spread_z:+2.79laggard:rich_laggard → short_fragility
Dislocation:
Pair Twin
DHI
Pair Correlation
0.92
Pair Spread Z
2.79
Pair Direction
short_fragility
Pair State
partial
Gate pass
Yes
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
N3 · Failed Breakoutprimednew
score: 0.149confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-07-17
Triggers:quality:passrecent_breakout_above:sma20failure_bar:-0.4%failure_vol:weak:0.12sustained_below
Dislocation:
Breakout Level
sma20
Dist 52w High
-0.09
Sma Dist 20
-0.01
Recent Push
Yes
Below Level
Yes
Failure Bar
Yes
Sustained Below
Yes
1-day return
-0.36%
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
A2 · Oversold Sympathypartialnew
score: 0.137confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-07-23
Triggers:ret_1d -3.2%quality:passdemoted:partial explained by sub_industry_move (attribution_confidence=medium)no_own_news (weak flag — store coverage limited)borrowed_drop +1.38pp (below threshold)sector_explained 1.02×-4.5%=-4.6pp
Dislocation:
1-day return
-3.17%
1-day return
-3.17%
Beta (60d)
1.02
Sector return (1d)
-4.48%
Sector return
-4.48%
Borrowed drop
1.38%
Own news
No
Newsless
Yes
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recoveryactive
10 days
A8 · PEAD Beat Driftlong recoveryactive
2 days
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recoveryactive
8 days
P1 · Pair Divergenceshort fragilityactive
1 day
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragilityactive
1 day
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
10 days
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling
5 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 5/6 directionally right · mean +4.0% · small sample, illustrative not proof
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-23 → open3 bars
+4.6%open · MTM
P1 · Pair Divergenceshort fragility2026-07-23 → open3 bars
-5.0%open · MTM
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-07-17 → 2026-07-213 bars
+3.6%dropped
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-09 → 2026-07-102 bars
-0.5%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-02 → 2026-07-062 bars
+0.1%dropped
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
+11.1%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-11 → 2026-06-122 bars
+3.3%closed
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilinglong recovery2026-06-05 → 2026-06-104 bars
+6.2%dropped
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-04 → open36 bars
+12.1%open · MTM
1 episode could not be priced (missing OHLCV) and is omitted.
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | partial | 0.084 | 2 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.05 · Days Since Earnings: 5.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-27 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.084 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 4.84 · Days To Cover: 6.32 · Ret 20d: -0.05 · Dist 52w Low: 0.19 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-24 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | partial | 0.084 | 2 | new | Eps Surprise: 0.05 · Days Since Earnings: 2.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-24 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.084 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 4.84 · Days To Cover: 6.32 · Ret 20d: -0.05 · Dist 52w Low: 0.17 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-23 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.137 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -3.17% · 1-day return: -3.17% · Beta (60d): 1.02 · Sector return (1d): -4.48% · Sector return: -4.48% · Borrowed drop: 1.38% |
| 2026-07-22 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.497 | 2 | exited | 1-day return: -5.52% · 1-day return: -5.52% · Beta (60d): 0.88 · Sector return (1d): -1.80% · Sector return: -1.80% · Borrowed drop: -3.95% |
| 2026-07-22 | P1 · Pair Divergence | partial | 0.752 | 1 | new | Pair Twin: DHI · Pair Correlation: 0.92 · Pair Spread Z: 2.79 · Pair Direction: short_fragility · Pair State: partial · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-07-17 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.149 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.09 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-15 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.497 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -5.52% · 1-day return: -5.52% · Beta (60d): 0.88 · Sector return (1d): -1.80% · Sector return: -1.80% · Borrowed drop: -3.95% |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.661 | 2 | exited | 1-day return: 1.32% · 1-day return: 1.32% · Beta (60d): 1.04 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -2.42% |
| 2026-07-10 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.386 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 4.77 · Days To Cover: 6.95 · Ret 20d: 0.05 · Dist 52w Low: 0.16 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-09 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.397 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 4.77 · Days To Cover: 6.95 · Ret 20d: 0.01 · Dist 52w Low: 0.15 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-08 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.497 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -5.52% · 1-day return: -5.52% · Beta (60d): 0.88 · Sector return (1d): -1.80% · Sector return: -1.80% · Borrowed drop: -3.95% |
| 2026-07-08 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.497 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 4.77 · Days To Cover: 6.95 · Ret 20d: 0.05 · Dist 52w Low: 0.15 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-07 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.420 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 4.77 · Days To Cover: 6.95 · Ret 20d: 0.09 · Dist 52w Low: 0.21 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.661 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: 1.32% · 1-day return: 1.32% · Beta (60d): 1.04 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -2.42% |
| 2026-07-06 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.435 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 4.77 · Days To Cover: 6.95 · Ret 20d: 0.11 · Dist 52w Low: 0.23 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-06 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | decayed | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 8.76 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-07-02 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.448 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 4.77 · Days To Cover: 6.95 · Ret 20d: 0.13 · Dist 52w Low: 0.25 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-01 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.539 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -3.43% · 1-day return: -3.43% · Beta (60d): 1.00 · Sector return (1d): 0.69% · Sector return: 0.69% · Borrowed drop: -4.12% |
| 2026-07-01 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.539 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 4.77 · Days To Cover: 6.95 · Ret 20d: 0.12 · Dist 52w Low: 0.24 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-06-30 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.481 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 4.77 · Days To Cover: 6.95 · Ret 20d: 0.16 · Dist 52w Low: 0.31 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.661 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.32% · 1-day return: 1.32% · Beta (60d): 1.04 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -2.42% |
| 2026-06-24 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.056 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: -3.56% · 1-day return: -3.56% · Beta (60d): 1.26 · Sector return (1d): -2.08% · Sector return: -2.08% · Borrowed drop: -0.95% |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.293 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.06% · 1-day return: -1.06% · Beta (60d): 1.17 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.68% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.916 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 4.08% · 1-day return: 4.08% · Beta (60d): 1.17 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 4.08% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.920 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 4.08% · 1-day return: 4.08% · Beta (60d): 1.17 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 4.08% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.925 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 4.08% · 1-day return: 4.08% · Beta (60d): 1.17 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 4.08% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.938 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 4.41% · 1-day return: 4.41% · Beta (60d): 1.14 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.821 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.34% · 1-day return: -2.34% · Beta (60d): 1.12 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.056 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.56% · 1-day return: -3.56% · Beta (60d): 1.26 · Sector return (1d): -2.08% · Sector return: -2.08% · Borrowed drop: -0.95% |
| 2026-06-16 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.611 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.55% · 1-day return: 1.55% · Beta (60d): 1.14 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-10 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.056 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -3.56% · 1-day return: -3.56% · Beta (60d): 1.26 · Sector return (1d): -2.08% · Sector return: -2.08% · Borrowed drop: -0.95% |
| 2026-06-08 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 8.76 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-07 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 8.37 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-05 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 8.37 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-04 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 14.34 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |