PAYX
Paychex
Screener candidate detail · 3 active archetypes
Active
3
archetypes
History
37
rows
Days on list
1
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
6 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
A2 · Oversold Sympathyprimednew
score: 0.680confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-09-08
Triggers:ret_1d -4.0%quality:passunexplained:idiosyncratic — real A2 (attribution_confidence=low; low confidence here = HIGH A2 conviction)no_own_news (weak flag — store coverage limited)borrowed_drop -4.14pp (unexplained)sector_explained -0.28×-0.5%=+0.1pp
Dislocation:
1-day return
-4.01%
1-day return
-4.01%
Beta (60d)
-0.28
Sector return (1d)
-0.49%
Sector return
-0.49%
Borrowed drop
-4.14%
Own news
No
Newsless
Yes
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
A3 · Positioning Extremepartialpersisting
score: 0.000confluence: 0days: 101as of 2026-09-11
Triggers:short_pct:unavailabledays_to_cover 9.66 (extreme)ret_20d -8.6% (falling)dist_52w_low +37.6% (above lows)price_holding:not_confirmedprice_resilient:not_confirmed (needs ret_20d >= +5% for primed)skew:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design)quality:pass
Dislocation:
Short Pct Float
—
Days To Cover
9.66
Ret 20d
-0.09
Dist 52w Low
0.38
Short Extreme
Yes
Short Pct Extreme
No
Days To Cover Extreme
Yes
Price Holding
No
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
A6 · Vol Mispricingpartialpersisting
score: 0.348confluence: 0days: 3as of 2026-09-11
Triggers:quality:passhist_earnings_move 2.8% (weighted avg of 8 events, w=0.7)catalyst 12d awayimplied_move:unavailable (options enabled but no data)vol_edge: pending implied_move data
Dislocation:
Hist Earnings Move
2.77
N Events Used
8.00
Days To Catalyst
12.00
Implied Move
—
Vol Edge
—
Options Legs Enabled
Yes
Gate pass
Yes
Recency Weight
0.70
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recoveryactive
10 days
A6 · Vol Mispricinglong recoveryactive
3 days
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recoveryactive
7 days
N3 · Failed Breakout
4 days
P1 · Pair Divergence
3 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
10 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 3/5 directionally right · mean -0.2% · small sample, illustrative not proof
A6 · Vol Mispricinglong recovery2026-09-10 → open2 bars
-0.9%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-09-09 → open3 bars
-1.9%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-31 → 2026-08-032 bars
+2.0%closed
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-06-30 → 2026-07-023 bars
-3.3%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-24 → 2026-06-263 bars
+1.6%closed
P1 · Pair Divergencelong recovery2026-06-24 → 2026-06-263 bars
+1.6%closed
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-269 bars
-2.9%closed
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-04 → open69 bars
+12.6%open · MTM
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Days To Cover: 9.66 · Ret 20d: -0.09 · Dist 52w Low: 0.38 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-11 | A6 · Vol Mispricing | partial | 0.348 | 0 | persisting | Hist Earnings Move: 2.77 · N Events Used: 8.00 · Days To Catalyst: 12.00 · Implied Move: — · Vol Edge: — · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-09-10 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.348 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Days To Cover: 8.23 · Ret 20d: -0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.38 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-10 | A6 · Vol Mispricing | partial | 0.348 | 1 | persisting | Hist Earnings Move: 2.77 · N Events Used: 8.00 · Days To Catalyst: 13.00 · Implied Move: — · Vol Edge: — · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-09-09 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.371 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Days To Cover: 8.23 · Ret 20d: -0.06 · Dist 52w Low: 0.37 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-09 | A6 · Vol Mispricing | partial | 0.371 | 1 | new | Hist Earnings Move: 2.77 · N Events Used: 8.00 · Days To Catalyst: 14.00 · Implied Move: — · Vol Edge: — · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-09-08 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.680 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -4.01% · 1-day return: -4.01% · Beta (60d): -0.28 · Sector return (1d): -0.49% · Sector return: -0.49% · Borrowed drop: -4.14% |
| 2026-09-08 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.680 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Days To Cover: 8.23 · Ret 20d: -0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.40 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-04 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.237 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Days To Cover: 8.23 · Ret 20d: 0.01 · Dist 52w Low: 0.46 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-03 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.238 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Days To Cover: 8.23 · Ret 20d: 0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.50 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-02 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.267 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Days To Cover: 8.23 · Ret 20d: 0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.48 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-01 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | primed | 0.290 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Days To Cover: 8.23 · Ret 20d: 0.07 · Dist 52w Low: 0.50 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-31 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.291 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Days To Cover: 8.23 · Ret 20d: 0.08 · Dist 52w Low: 0.52 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-28 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.290 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Days To Cover: 8.23 · Ret 20d: 0.08 · Dist 52w Low: 0.52 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-13 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.490 | 2 | exited | 1-day return: -4.87% · 1-day return: -4.87% · Beta (60d): -0.77 · Sector return (1d): 0.97% · Sector return: 0.97% · Borrowed drop: -4.11% |
| 2026-08-06 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.490 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -4.87% · 1-day return: -4.87% · Beta (60d): -0.77 · Sector return (1d): 0.97% · Sector return: 0.97% · Borrowed drop: -4.11% |
| 2026-07-30 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.490 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -4.87% · 1-day return: -4.87% · Beta (60d): -0.77 · Sector return (1d): 0.97% · Sector return: 0.97% · Borrowed drop: -4.11% |
| 2026-07-28 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.481 | 1 | exited | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.31 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-22 | P1 · Pair Divergence | partial | 0.666 | 4 | exited | Pair Twin: ADP · Pair Correlation: 0.85 · Pair Spread Z: -2.86 · Pair Direction: long_recovery · Pair State: partial · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-07-14 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.481 | 1 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.31 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-08 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.578 | 2 | exited | 1-day return: -1.74% · 1-day return: -1.74% · Beta (60d): -0.38 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.36% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.60% |
| 2026-07-08 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.666 | 4 | exited | 1-day return: -3.27% · 1-day return: -3.27% · Beta (60d): -0.41 · Sector return (1d): 1.23% · Sector return: 1.23% · Borrowed drop: -2.77% |
| 2026-07-08 | P1 · Pair Divergence | partial | 0.666 | 4 | decayed | Pair Twin: ADP · Pair Correlation: 0.85 · Pair Spread Z: -2.86 · Pair Direction: long_recovery · Pair State: partial · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-07-01 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.578 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -1.74% · 1-day return: -1.74% · Beta (60d): -0.38 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.36% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.60% |
| 2026-07-01 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.666 | 4 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.27% · 1-day return: -3.27% · Beta (60d): -0.41 · Sector return (1d): 1.23% · Sector return: 1.23% · Borrowed drop: -2.77% |
| 2026-06-30 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.481 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.31 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-29 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.496 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.30 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-24 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.578 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.74% · 1-day return: -1.74% · Beta (60d): -0.38 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.36% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.60% |
| 2026-06-24 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.666 | 4 | new | 1-day return: -3.27% · 1-day return: -3.27% · Beta (60d): -0.41 · Sector return (1d): 1.23% · Sector return: 1.23% · Borrowed drop: -2.77% |
| 2026-06-24 | P1 · Pair Divergence | partial | 0.666 | 4 | new | Pair Twin: ADP · Pair Correlation: 0.85 · Pair Spread Z: -2.86 · Pair Direction: long_recovery · Pair State: partial · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.701 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.38% · 1-day return: -2.38% · Beta (60d): -0.22 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -2.45% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.531 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.67% · 1-day return: 0.67% · Beta (60d): -0.23 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 0.67% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.580 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.67% · 1-day return: 0.67% · Beta (60d): -0.23 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 0.67% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.644 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.67% · 1-day return: 0.67% · Beta (60d): -0.23 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 0.67% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.015 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.03% · 1-day return: -0.03% · Beta (60d): -0.24 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.867 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.73% · 1-day return: -2.73% · Beta (60d): -0.21 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-16 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.268 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.62% · 1-day return: -0.62% · Beta (60d): -0.28 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |