NVR
NVR, Inc.
Screener candidate detail · 6 active archetypes
Active
6
archetypes
History
26
rows
Days on list
4
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
7 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
A3 · Positioning Extremepartialpersisting
score: 0.159confluence: 2days: 4as of 2026-07-27
Triggers:short_pct 5.1% (below 15% floor)days_to_cover 6.39 (extreme)ret_20d -7.9% (falling)dist_52w_low +13.4% (above lows)price_holding:not_confirmedskew:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design)quality:pass
Dislocation:
Short Pct Float
5.12
Days To Cover
6.39
Ret 20d
-0.08
Dist 52w Low
0.13
Short Extreme
Yes
Short Pct Extreme
No
Days To Cover Extreme
Yes
Price Holding
No
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
N6 · PEAD Miss Driftpartialpersisting
score: 0.159confluence: 2days: 4as of 2026-07-27
Triggers:quality:passeps_miss:partial (-0.067 in (-0.1,-0.03))earnings_4d_ago
Dislocation:
Eps Surprise
-0.07
Days Since Earnings
4.00
Recency Max
10.00
Primed Floor
-0.10
Partial Floor
-0.03
Direction Of Evidence
pead_miss_continuation
Honesty Caveat
PROVISIONAL. Validated in a single calm post-2022 regime only — no bear in-sample. rank-IC 5d +0.128 [+0.034,+0.216]; 10d +0.125 (shared PEAD evidence; miss tail: −1.42%/−1.62% at 5d/10d). DISTINCT FROM A1 short-side equivalent — N6 fires on the MISS regardless of whether price gapped (continuation, not reversal). CONTEXT — never advice.
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
P1 · Pair Divergencepartialpersisting
score: 0.159confluence: 2days: 7as of 2026-07-27
Triggers:quality:passtwin:PHMcorrelation:0.77spread_z:-2.21laggard:cheap_laggard → long_recovery
Dislocation:
Pair Twin
PHM
Pair Correlation
0.77
Pair Spread Z
-2.21
Pair Direction
long_recovery
Pair State
partial
Gate pass
Yes
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
N3 · Failed Breakoutprimednew
score: 0.284confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-07-17
Triggers:quality:passrecent_breakout_above:sma20failure_bar:-3.2%failure_vol:strong:1.19sustained_below
Dislocation:
Breakout Level
sma20
Dist 52w High
-0.24
Sma Dist 20
-0.02
Recent Push
Yes
Below Level
Yes
Failure Bar
Yes
Sustained Below
Yes
1-day return
-3.20%
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationpartialnew
score: 0.136confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-07-23
Triggers:regime:structural_deratefragility_gate:not_fragile (derate without structural confirm)
Dislocation:
Regime Tag
structural_derate
Fragile
No
Gate Abstained
No
Fragility Reasons
beta 0.71 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -14.2% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 72 >= 60 (elevated)
Fragility Legs Fired
2.00
Credit Amplified
No
Derate Depth Below 200d
0.14
Sma Dist 200
-0.14
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
A2 · Oversold Sympathypartialpersisting
score: 0.004confluence: 1days: 7as of 2026-07-23
Triggers:ret_1d -3.1%quality:passdemoted:partial explained by sector_move (attribution_confidence=medium)no_own_news (weak flag — store coverage limited)borrowed_drop -0.04pp (below threshold)sector_explained 0.65×-4.7%=-3.1pp
Dislocation:
1-day return
-3.11%
1-day return
-3.11%
Beta (60d)
0.65
Sector return (1d)
-4.72%
Sector return
-4.72%
Borrowed drop
-0.04%
Own news
No
Newsless
Yes
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recoveryactive
6 days
N6 · PEAD Miss Driftshort fragilityactive
2 days
P1 · Pair Divergencelong recoveryactive
2 days
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragilityactive
1 day
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recoveryactive
4 days
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragilityactive
1 day
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
10 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 4/4 directionally right · mean +2.6% · small sample, illustrative not proof
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragility2026-07-23 → open3 bars
-2.4%open · MTM
P1 · Pair Divergencelong recovery2026-07-22 → open4 bars
+0.5%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-20 → open6 bars
-2.7%open · MTM
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-07-20 → 2026-07-212 bars
+1.9%dropped
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-09 → 2026-07-102 bars
+0.6%dropped
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
+6.4%closed
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-04 → 2026-06-083 bars
+1.4%closed
2 episodes could not be priced (missing OHLCV) and are omitted.
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | P1 · Pair Divergence | partial | 0.159 | 2 | persisting | Pair Twin: PHM · Pair Correlation: 0.77 · Pair Spread Z: -2.21 · Pair Direction: long_recovery · Pair State: partial · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-07-27 | N6 · PEAD Miss Drift | partial | 0.159 | 2 | persisting | Eps Surprise: -0.07 · Days Since Earnings: 4.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: -0.10 · Partial Floor: -0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_miss_continuation |
| 2026-07-27 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.159 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 5.12 · Days To Cover: 6.39 · Ret 20d: -0.08 · Dist 52w Low: 0.13 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-24 | N6 · PEAD Miss Drift | partial | 0.000 | 1 | new | Eps Surprise: -0.07 · Days Since Earnings: 1.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: -0.10 · Partial Floor: -0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_miss_continuation |
| 2026-07-24 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | new | Short Pct Float: 5.12 · Days To Cover: 6.39 · Ret 20d: -0.06 · Dist 52w Low: 0.15 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-23 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.004 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.11% · 1-day return: -3.11% · Beta (60d): 0.65 · Sector return (1d): -4.72% · Sector return: -4.72% · Borrowed drop: -0.04% |
| 2026-07-23 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.136 | 1 | new | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.71 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -14.2% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 72 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-21 | P1 · Pair Divergence | partial | 0.002 | 1 | new | Pair Twin: PHM · Pair Correlation: 0.79 · Pair Spread Z: -2.00 · Pair Direction: long_recovery · Pair State: partial · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-07-17 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.284 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.24 · Sma Dist 20: -0.02 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-17 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.284 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -3.20% · 1-day return: -3.20% · Beta (60d): 0.44 · Sector return (1d): -1.63% · Sector return: -1.63% · Borrowed drop: -2.49% |
| 2026-07-16 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | exited | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.01 · Dist 52w Low: 0.11 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-07-15 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.390 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -4.03% · 1-day return: -4.03% · Beta (60d): 0.52 · Sector return (1d): -1.80% · Sector return: -1.80% · Borrowed drop: -3.09% |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.747 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: 0.21% · 1-day return: 0.21% · Beta (60d): 0.72 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -2.37% |
| 2026-07-08 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.390 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -4.03% · 1-day return: -4.03% · Beta (60d): 0.52 · Sector return (1d): -1.80% · Sector return: -1.80% · Borrowed drop: -3.09% |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.747 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: 0.21% · 1-day return: 0.21% · Beta (60d): 0.72 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -2.37% |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.747 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.21% · 1-day return: 0.21% · Beta (60d): 0.72 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -2.37% |
| 2026-06-25 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | decayed | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.01 · Dist 52w Low: 0.11 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.665 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.15% · 1-day return: -2.15% · Beta (60d): 0.73 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.92% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.863 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.37% · 1-day return: 3.37% · Beta (60d): 0.72 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 3.37% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.868 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.37% · 1-day return: 3.37% · Beta (60d): 0.72 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 3.37% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.875 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.37% · 1-day return: 3.37% · Beta (60d): 0.72 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 3.37% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.907 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.73% · 1-day return: 3.73% · Beta (60d): 0.69 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.848 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.54% · 1-day return: -2.54% · Beta (60d): 0.68 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-16 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.627 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.61% · 1-day return: 1.61% · Beta (60d): 0.66 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-04 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.01 · Dist 52w Low: 0.11 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-06-03 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.10 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |