NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings
Screener candidate detail · 3 active archetypes
Active
3
archetypes
History
60
rows
Days on list
101
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
9 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
A3 · Positioning Extremepartialpersisting
score: 0.000confluence: 1days: 101as of 2026-09-11
Triggers:short_pct 19.0% (extreme)days_to_cover 6.04 (extreme)ret_20d -27.6% (falling)dist_52w_low +1.9% (above lows)price_holding:not_confirmedprice_resilient:not_confirmed (needs ret_20d >= +5% for primed)skew:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design)quality:pass
Dislocation:
Short Pct Float
18.99
Days To Cover
6.04
Ret 20d
-0.28
Dist 52w Low
0.02
Short Extreme
Yes
Short Pct Extreme
Yes
Days To Cover Extreme
Yes
Price Holding
No
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilingpartialpersisting
score: 0.000confluence: 1days: 10as of 2026-09-11
Triggers:rvol_pctile 8.8 (tight ≤20)quality:passNR7: confirmedcatalyst: no upcoming date foundNOTE: vol setup — resolves both ways (not directional)iv_pctile:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design; score = rvol×proximity only)
Dislocation:
Realized Vol Pct 1y
8.76
Inside Day
No
Nr7
Yes
Days To Catalyst
—
Proximity Factor
0.00
Iv Pctile
—
Options Legs Enabled
Yes
Gate pass
Yes
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationpartialpersisting
score: 0.000confluence: 1days: 11as of 2026-09-11
Triggers:regime:structural_deratefragility_gate:not_fragile (derate without structural confirm)
Dislocation:
Regime Tag
structural_derate
Fragile
No
Gate Abstained
No
Fragility Reasons
beta 1.09 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -25.0% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 9 < 60 (calm)
Fragility Legs Fired
1.00
Credit Amplified
No
Derate Depth Below 200d
0.25
Sma Dist 200
-0.25
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recoveryactive
10 days
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilinglong recoveryactive
5 days
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragilityactive
8 days
N3 · Failed Breakout
5 days
A2 · Oversold Sympathy
10 days
A8 · PEAD Beat Drift
8 days
P1 · Pair Divergence
5 days
N5 · Revision Collapse
2 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
7 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 5/11 directionally right · mean +0.8%
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilinglong recovery2026-09-03 → open6 bars
-4.4%open · MTM
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragility2026-09-02 → open7 bars
+5.1%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-09-01 → open8 bars
-7.5%open · MTM
P1 · Pair Divergencelong recovery2026-08-18 → open18 bars
-15.4%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-08-18 → 2026-08-245 bars
-1.3%dropped
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-08-11 → 2026-08-122 bars
+1.2%dropped
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-08-07 → 2026-08-187 bars
+8.8%closed
A8 · PEAD Beat Driftlong recovery2026-08-03 → 2026-08-117 bars
-3.4%closed
N5 · Revision Collapseshort fragility2026-08-03 → 2026-08-042 bars
-4.4%dropped
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-31 → 2026-08-032 bars
-0.8%dropped
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-24 → 2026-07-272 bars
+5.4%dropped
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-01 → 2026-07-074 bars
-9.2%closed
P1 · Pair Divergenceshort fragility2026-06-24 → 2026-06-252 bars
-2.6%closed
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
+7.9%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-11 → 2026-06-122 bars
+7.5%closed
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-04 → open68 bars
-24.1%open · MTM
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.301 | 1 | exited | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.28 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-09-11 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 18.99 · Days To Cover: 6.04 · Ret 20d: -0.28 · Dist 52w Low: 0.02 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-11 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 8.76 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-09-11 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.09 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -25.0% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 9 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-09-10 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.769 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 15.91 · Days To Cover: 5.53 · Ret 20d: -0.26 · Dist 52w Low: 0.00 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-10 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 12.75 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-09-10 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.769 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.01 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -26.4% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 13 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-09-09 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.735 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 15.91 · Days To Cover: 5.53 · Ret 20d: -0.23 · Dist 52w Low: 0.00 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-09 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 12.75 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-09-09 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.735 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.11 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -25.1% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 16 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-09-08 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.260 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.11% · 1-day return: -3.11% · Beta (60d): 1.26 · Sector return (1d): -0.53% · Sector return: -0.53% · Borrowed drop: -2.44% |
| 2026-09-08 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.608 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 15.91 · Days To Cover: 5.53 · Ret 20d: -0.19 · Dist 52w Low: 0.04 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-08 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.608 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.10 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -22.4% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 15 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-09-04 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.552 | 2 | exited | Eps Surprise: 0.23 · Days Since Earnings: 8.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-09-04 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 15.91 · Days To Cover: 5.53 · Ret 20d: -0.21 · Dist 52w Low: 0.05 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-04 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 16.73 · Inside Day: Yes · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-09-04 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.29 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -21.5% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 17 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-09-03 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.568 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 15.91 · Days To Cover: 5.53 · Ret 20d: -0.22 · Dist 52w Low: 0.05 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-03 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.568 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.45 >= 1.30 (high),sma_dist_200 -21.5% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 17 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-09-02 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 15.91 · Days To Cover: 5.53 · Ret 20d: -0.27 · Dist 52w Low: 0.05 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-02 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | new | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 17.53 · Inside Day: Yes · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-09-02 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.44 >= 1.30 (high),sma_dist_200 -21.6% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 18 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-09-01 | P1 · Pair Divergence | partial | 0.361 | 3 | decayed | Pair Twin: CCL · Pair Correlation: 0.82 · Pair Spread Z: -2.19 · Pair Direction: long_recovery · Pair State: partial · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-09-01 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.604 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 15.91 · Days To Cover: 5.53 · Ret 20d: -0.26 · Dist 52w Low: 0.04 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-01 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.604 | 1 | new | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.43 >= 1.30 (high),sma_dist_200 -22.4% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 19 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-08-31 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.260 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -3.11% · 1-day return: -3.11% · Beta (60d): 1.26 · Sector return (1d): -0.53% · Sector return: -0.53% · Borrowed drop: -2.44% |
| 2026-08-31 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.260 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 15.91 · Days To Cover: 5.53 · Ret 20d: -0.20 · Dist 52w Low: 0.09 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-08-28 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.301 | 1 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.28 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-28 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 15.91 · Days To Cover: 5.53 · Ret 20d: -0.11 · Dist 52w Low: 0.13 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-08-28 | N5 · Revision Collapse | primed | 0.416 | 2 | decayed | Analyst Cluster State: cluster_down · Pt Change 30d Pct: -8.70% · Negative Pt Trail: Yes · Downtrend Confirmed: Yes · Sma Downtrend: Yes · Ret Downtrend: Yes |
| 2026-08-27 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.130 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.46% · 1-day return: -3.46% · Beta (60d): 1.28 · Sector return (1d): -1.62% · Sector return: -1.62% · Borrowed drop: -1.39% |
| 2026-08-21 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.552 | 2 | decayed | Eps Surprise: 0.23 · Days Since Earnings: 8.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-08-20 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.130 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.46% · 1-day return: -3.46% · Beta (60d): 1.28 · Sector return (1d): -1.62% · Sector return: -1.62% · Borrowed drop: -1.39% |
| 2026-08-18 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.308 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.19% · 1-day return: -3.19% · Beta (60d): 1.28 · Sector return (1d): -0.33% · Sector return: -0.33% · Borrowed drop: -2.76% |
| 2026-08-18 | P1 · Pair Divergence | partial | 0.361 | 3 | new | Pair Twin: CCL · Pair Correlation: 0.82 · Pair Spread Z: -2.19 · Pair Direction: long_recovery · Pair State: partial · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-08-17 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.170 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -4.46% · 1-day return: -4.46% · Beta (60d): 1.25 · Sector return (1d): -1.23% · Sector return: -1.23% · Borrowed drop: -2.92% |
| 2026-08-14 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.301 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.28 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-10 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.250 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -3.70% · 1-day return: -3.70% · Beta (60d): 1.34 · Sector return (1d): -0.16% · Sector return: -0.16% · Borrowed drop: -3.49% |
| 2026-08-07 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.552 | 2 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.29 · Sma Dist 20: -0.02 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-07 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.552 | 2 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.23 · Days Since Earnings: 8.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-08-06 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.552 | 2 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.28 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-06 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.492 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -10.30% · 1-day return: -10.30% · Beta (60d): 1.30 · Sector return (1d): 0.70% · Sector return: 0.70% · Borrowed drop: -11.20% |
| 2026-08-06 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.552 | 2 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.23 · Days Since Earnings: 7.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-08-05 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.557 | 2 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.23 · Days Since Earnings: 6.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-08-04 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.566 | 2 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.23 · Days Since Earnings: 5.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-08-03 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.572 | 2 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.23 · Days Since Earnings: 4.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-31 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.416 | 2 | new | Eps Surprise: 0.23 · Days Since Earnings: 1.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-31 | N5 · Revision Collapse | primed | 0.416 | 2 | new | Analyst Cluster State: cluster_down · Pt Change 30d Pct: -8.70% · Negative Pt Trail: Yes · Downtrend Confirmed: Yes · Sma Downtrend: Yes · Ret Downtrend: Yes |
| 2026-07-30 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.492 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -10.30% · 1-day return: -10.30% · Beta (60d): 1.30 · Sector return (1d): 0.70% · Sector return: 0.70% · Borrowed drop: -11.20% |
| 2026-07-23 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.419 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -3.26% · 1-day return: -3.26% · Beta (60d): 1.89 · Sector return (1d): -4.72% · Sector return: -4.72% · Borrowed drop: 5.67% |
| 2026-07-21 | P1 · Pair Divergence | primed | 0.603 | 1 | exited | Pair Twin: CCL · Pair Correlation: 0.82 · Pair Spread Z: 3.54 · Pair Direction: short_fragility · Pair State: primed · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.774 | 2 | exited | 1-day return: 1.23% · 1-day return: 1.23% · Beta (60d): 2.25 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -6.86% |
| 2026-07-07 | P1 · Pair Divergence | primed | 0.603 | 1 | decayed | Pair Twin: CCL · Pair Correlation: 0.82 · Pair Spread Z: 3.54 · Pair Direction: short_fragility · Pair State: primed · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.774 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: 1.23% · 1-day return: 1.23% · Beta (60d): 2.25 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -6.86% |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.774 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.23% · 1-day return: 1.23% · Beta (60d): 2.25 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -6.86% |
| 2026-06-23 | P1 · Pair Divergence | primed | 0.603 | 1 | persisting | Pair Twin: CCL · Pair Correlation: 0.82 · Pair Spread Z: 3.54 · Pair Direction: short_fragility · Pair State: primed · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.552 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.98% · 1-day return: -1.98% · Beta (60d): 2.51 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.16% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.802 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.03% · 1-day return: 3.03% · Beta (60d): 2.51 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 3.03% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.853 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.03% · 1-day return: 3.03% · Beta (60d): 2.51 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 3.03% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.841 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.03% · 1-day return: 3.03% · Beta (60d): 2.51 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 3.03% |