MTN
Vail Resorts
Screener candidate detail · 3 active archetypes
Active
3
archetypes
History
50
rows
Days on list
2
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
6 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilingpartialpersisting
score: 0.000confluence: 1days: 2as of 2026-08-28
Triggers:rvol_pctile 12.4 (tight ≤20)quality:passNR7: confirmedcatalyst: no upcoming date foundNOTE: vol setup — resolves both ways (not directional)iv_pctile:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design; score = rvol×proximity only)
Dislocation:
Realized Vol Pct 1y
12.35
Inside Day
No
Nr7
Yes
Days To Catalyst
—
Proximity Factor
0.00
Iv Pctile
—
Options Legs Enabled
Yes
Gate pass
Yes
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
A3 · Positioning Extremepartialpersisting
score: 0.244confluence: 0days: 101as of 2026-09-11
Triggers:short_pct 17.4% (extreme)days_to_cover 10.87 (extreme)ret_20d -4.1% (holding)dist_52w_low +19.1% (above lows)price_holding:confirmedprice_resilient:not_confirmed (needs ret_20d >= +5% for primed)skew:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design)quality:pass
Dislocation:
Short Pct Float
17.44
Days To Cover
10.87
Ret 20d
-0.04
Dist 52w Low
0.19
Short Extreme
Yes
Short Pct Extreme
Yes
Days To Cover Extreme
Yes
Price Holding
Yes
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
A6 · Vol Mispricingpartialpersisting
score: 0.197confluence: 0days: 3as of 2026-09-11
Triggers:quality:passhist_earnings_move 1.9% (weighted avg of 8 events, w=0.7)catalyst 17d awayimplied_move:unavailable (options enabled but no data)vol_edge: pending implied_move data
Dislocation:
Hist Earnings Move
1.89
N Events Used
8.00
Days To Catalyst
17.00
Implied Move
—
Vol Edge
—
Options Legs Enabled
Yes
Gate pass
Yes
Recency Weight
0.70
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recoveryactive
10 days
A6 · Vol Mispricinglong recoveryactive
3 days
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilinglong recoveryactive
8 days
N3 · Failed Breakout
9 days
A2 · Oversold Sympathy
10 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
10 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 5/9 directionally right · mean +0.5% · small sample, illustrative not proof
A6 · Vol Mispricinglong recovery2026-09-10 → open2 bars
+6.6%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-09-01 → open8 bars
+2.1%open · MTM
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilinglong recovery2026-08-27 → 2026-09-014 bars
-4.8%dropped
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-08-18 → open18 bars
+5.3%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-08-17 → 2026-08-193 bars
+2.7%dropped
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-08-07 → 2026-08-102 bars
+0.4%dropped
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-08-03 → 2026-08-053 bars
+2.5%dropped
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-31 → 2026-08-032 bars
-3.0%dropped
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-06-25 → 2026-06-293 bars
-0.1%closed
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-2910 bars
+5.1%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-10 → 2026-06-2913 bars
+2.4%closed
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilinglong recovery2026-06-05 → 2026-06-104 bars
-0.9%closed
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-04 → open69 bars
+1.2%open · MTM
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.244 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.44 · Days To Cover: 10.87 · Ret 20d: -0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.19 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-11 | A6 · Vol Mispricing | partial | 0.197 | 0 | persisting | Hist Earnings Move: 1.89 · N Events Used: 8.00 · Days To Catalyst: 17.00 · Implied Move: — · Vol Edge: — · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-09-10 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.197 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.86 · Days To Cover: 13.55 · Ret 20d: -0.11 · Dist 52w Low: 0.14 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-10 | A6 · Vol Mispricing | partial | 0.197 | 1 | persisting | Hist Earnings Move: 1.89 · N Events Used: 8.00 · Days To Catalyst: 18.00 · Implied Move: — · Vol Edge: — · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-09-09 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.229 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.86 · Days To Cover: 13.55 · Ret 20d: -0.12 · Dist 52w Low: 0.11 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-09 | A6 · Vol Mispricing | partial | 0.229 | 1 | new | Hist Earnings Move: 1.89 · N Events Used: 8.00 · Days To Catalyst: 19.00 · Implied Move: — · Vol Edge: — · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-09-08 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.881 | 1 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.06 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-09-08 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.449 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.36% · 1-day return: -3.36% · Beta (60d): 0.05 · Sector return (1d): -1.73% · Sector return: -1.73% · Borrowed drop: -3.28% |
| 2026-09-08 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.86 · Days To Cover: 13.55 · Ret 20d: -0.10 · Dist 52w Low: 0.13 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-04 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.86 · Days To Cover: 13.55 · Ret 20d: -0.10 · Dist 52w Low: 0.15 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-03 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.86 · Days To Cover: 13.55 · Ret 20d: -0.08 · Dist 52w Low: 0.16 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-02 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.86 · Days To Cover: 13.55 · Ret 20d: -0.09 · Dist 52w Low: 0.16 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-01 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.449 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.36% · 1-day return: -3.36% · Beta (60d): 0.05 · Sector return (1d): -1.73% · Sector return: -1.73% · Borrowed drop: -3.28% |
| 2026-09-01 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.449 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.86 · Days To Cover: 13.55 · Ret 20d: -0.12 · Dist 52w Low: 0.13 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-08-31 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.827 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -5.47% · 1-day return: -5.47% · Beta (60d): -0.02 · Sector return (1d): -0.53% · Sector return: -0.53% · Borrowed drop: -5.48% |
| 2026-08-31 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.827 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.86 · Days To Cover: 13.55 · Ret 20d: -0.09 · Dist 52w Low: 0.17 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-08-28 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.86 · Days To Cover: 13.55 · Ret 20d: -0.05 · Dist 52w Low: 0.21 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-08-28 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 12.35 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-08-27 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | new | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 12.75 · Inside Day: Yes · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-08-24 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.881 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.06 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-24 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.333 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.05% · 1-day return: -3.05% · Beta (60d): -0.01 · Sector return (1d): -0.74% · Sector return: -0.74% · Borrowed drop: -3.06% |
| 2026-08-20 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.767 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.06 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-17 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.298 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.08 · Sma Dist 20: -0.02 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-17 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.333 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -3.05% · 1-day return: -3.05% · Beta (60d): -0.01 · Sector return (1d): -0.74% · Sector return: -0.74% · Borrowed drop: -3.06% |
| 2026-08-13 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.342 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.05% · 1-day return: -3.05% · Beta (60d): 0.02 · Sector return (1d): -0.46% · Sector return: -0.46% · Borrowed drop: -3.04% |
| 2026-08-06 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.342 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -3.05% · 1-day return: -3.05% · Beta (60d): 0.02 · Sector return (1d): -0.46% · Sector return: -0.46% · Borrowed drop: -3.04% |
| 2026-08-03 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.325 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.07 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-03 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | exited | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 7.17 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-07-31 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.330 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.07 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-30 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.537 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -4.60% · 1-day return: -4.60% · Beta (60d): 0.12 · Sector return (1d): 0.70% · Sector return: 0.70% · Borrowed drop: -4.68% |
| 2026-07-23 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.767 | 3 | exited | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.16 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-09 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.767 | 3 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.16 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-09 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.767 | 3 | exited | 1-day return: -5.64% · 1-day return: -5.64% · Beta (60d): 0.54 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.37% · Beta Residual Pct: -5.44% |
| 2026-07-09 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.767 | 3 | exited | 1-day return: -5.64% · 1-day return: -5.64% · Beta (60d): 0.54 · Sector return (1d): -0.26% · Sector return: -0.26% · Borrowed drop: -5.50% |
| 2026-07-06 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | decayed | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 7.17 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-07-02 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.767 | 3 | decayed | 1-day return: -5.64% · 1-day return: -5.64% · Beta (60d): 0.54 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.37% · Beta Residual Pct: -5.44% |
| 2026-07-02 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.767 | 3 | decayed | 1-day return: -5.64% · 1-day return: -5.64% · Beta (60d): 0.54 · Sector return (1d): -0.26% · Sector return: -0.26% · Borrowed drop: -5.50% |
| 2026-06-25 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.767 | 3 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.16 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-25 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.767 | 3 | persisting | 1-day return: -5.64% · 1-day return: -5.64% · Beta (60d): 0.54 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.37% · Beta Residual Pct: -5.44% |
| 2026-06-23 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.399 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.79% · 1-day return: -0.79% · Beta (60d): 0.69 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.01 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.66% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.34% |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.659 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.17% · 1-day return: -2.17% · Beta (60d): 0.63 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.96% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.885 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 10.82% · 1-day return: 10.82% · Beta (60d): 0.62 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 10.82% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.935 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 10.82% · 1-day return: 10.82% · Beta (60d): 0.62 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 10.82% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.999 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 10.82% · 1-day return: 10.82% · Beta (60d): 0.62 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 10.82% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.873 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.29% · 1-day return: 3.29% · Beta (60d): 0.48 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.756 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -5.06% · 1-day return: -5.06% · Beta (60d): 0.47 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-08 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 7.17 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-07 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 5.58 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-05 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 5.58 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-04 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 7.57 · Inside Day: Yes · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |