MTB
M&T Bank
Screener candidate detail · 5 active archetypes
Active
5
archetypes
History
36
rows
Days on list
9
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
6 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
A8 · PEAD Beat Driftprimedpersisting
score: 0.468confluence: 2days: 9as of 2026-07-24
Triggers:quality:passeps_beat:primed (0.142 >= 0.1)earnings_9d_ago
Dislocation:
Eps Surprise
0.14
Days Since Earnings
9.00
Recency Max
10.00
Primed Floor
0.10
Partial Floor
0.03
Direction Of Evidence
pead_beat_continuation
Honesty Caveat
PROVISIONAL. Validated in a single calm post-2022 regime only — no bear in-sample. rank-IC 5d +0.128 [+0.034,+0.216]; 10d +0.125. DISTINCT FROM A1 (A1 is contrarian gap-down recovery; A8 is continuation in the beat direction, no gap-down required). CONTEXT — never advice.
Analyst
[object Object]
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilingpartialpersisting
score: 0.210confluence: 2days: 2as of 2026-07-07
Triggers:rvol_pctile 16.3 (tight ≤20)quality:passNR7: confirmedcatalyst: no upcoming date foundNOTE: vol setup — resolves both ways (not directional)iv_pctile:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design; score = rvol×proximity only)
Dislocation:
Realized Vol Pct 1y
16.33
Inside Day
No
Nr7
Yes
Days To Catalyst
—
Proximity Factor
0.00
Iv Pctile
—
Options Legs Enabled
Yes
Gate pass
Yes
P1 · Pair Divergencepartialnew
score: 0.355confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-07-20
Triggers:quality:passtwin:RFcorrelation:0.88spread_z:+2.41laggard:rich_laggard → short_fragility
Dislocation:
Pair Twin
RF
Pair Correlation
0.88
Pair Spread Z
2.41
Pair Direction
short_fragility
Pair State
partial
Gate pass
Yes
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
N3 · Failed Breakoutprimedpersisting
score: 0.355confluence: 1days: 22as of 2026-07-17
Triggers:quality:passrecent_breakout_above:52w_highfailure_bar:-1.9%failure_vol:weak:0.72sustained_below
Dislocation:
Breakout Level
52w_high
Dist 52w High
-0.02
Sma Dist 20
0.04
Recent Push
Yes
Below Level
Yes
Failure Bar
Yes
Sustained Below
Yes
1-day return
-1.91%
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
A3 · Positioning Extremepartialpersisting
score: 0.353confluence: 1days: 55as of 2026-07-27
Triggers:short_pct 3.9% (below 15% floor)days_to_cover 5.15 (extreme)ret_20d +4.5% (holding)dist_52w_low +42.1% (above lows)price_holding:confirmedskew:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design)quality:pass
Dislocation:
Short Pct Float
3.90
Days To Cover
5.15
Ret 20d
0.05
Dist 52w Low
0.42
Short Extreme
Yes
Short Pct Extreme
No
Days To Cover Extreme
Yes
Price Holding
Yes
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recoveryactive
10 days
A8 · PEAD Beat Driftlong recoveryactive
7 days
P1 · Pair Divergenceshort fragilityactive
1 day
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragilityactive
6 days
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilinglong recoveryactive
2 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
10 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 1/3 directionally right · mean -0.8% · small sample, illustrative not proof
P1 · Pair Divergenceshort fragility2026-07-21 → open5 bars
-0.5%open · MTM
A8 · PEAD Beat Driftlong recovery2026-07-17 → open6 bars
-0.6%open · MTM
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilinglong recovery2026-07-07 → 2026-07-093 bars
-2.5%dropped
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-06-26 → 2026-07-2117 bars
-3.1%dropped
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
+3.0%closed
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-04 → open36 bars
+16.5%open · MTM
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.353 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 3.90 · Days To Cover: 5.15 · Ret 20d: 0.05 · Dist 52w Low: 0.42 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-24 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.468 | 2 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.14 · Days Since Earnings: 9.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-24 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.468 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 3.90 · Days To Cover: 5.15 · Ret 20d: 0.05 · Dist 52w Low: 0.43 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-23 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.532 | 1 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.14 · Days Since Earnings: 8.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-22 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.493 | 1 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.14 · Days Since Earnings: 7.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-21 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.427 | 1 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.14 · Days Since Earnings: 6.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-20 | P1 · Pair Divergence | partial | 0.355 | 1 | new | Pair Twin: RF · Pair Correlation: 0.88 · Pair Spread Z: 2.41 · Pair Direction: short_fragility · Pair State: partial · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-07-20 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.355 | 1 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.14 · Days Since Earnings: 5.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-17 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.355 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: 52w_high · Dist 52w High: -0.02 · Sma Dist 20: 0.04 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-17 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.355 | 1 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.14 · Days Since Earnings: 2.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-16 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.343 | 1 | new | Eps Surprise: 0.14 · Days Since Earnings: 1.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-14 | N3 · Failed Breakout | partial | 0.363 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: 52w_high · Dist 52w High: -0.00 · Sma Dist 20: 0.03 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.432 | 2 | exited | 1-day return: 0.21% · 1-day return: 0.21% · Beta (60d): 0.24 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.65% |
| 2026-07-10 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.386 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 4.22 · Days To Cover: 5.65 · Ret 20d: 0.08 · Dist 52w Low: 0.39 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-09 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.397 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 4.22 · Days To Cover: 5.65 · Ret 20d: 0.05 · Dist 52w Low: 0.35 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-08 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.408 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 4.22 · Days To Cover: 5.65 · Ret 20d: 0.05 · Dist 52w Low: 0.33 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-07 | N3 · Failed Breakout | partial | 0.210 | 2 | persisting | Breakout Level: 52w_high · Dist 52w High: -0.01 · Sma Dist 20: 0.03 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-07 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.210 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 4.22 · Days To Cover: 5.65 · Ret 20d: 0.07 · Dist 52w Low: 0.36 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-07 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.210 | 2 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 16.33 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.432 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: 0.21% · 1-day return: 0.21% · Beta (60d): 0.24 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.65% |
| 2026-07-06 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.217 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 4.22 · Days To Cover: 5.65 · Ret 20d: 0.08 · Dist 52w Low: 0.36 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-06 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.217 | 2 | new | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 15.54 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-07-02 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.448 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: 52w_high · Dist 52w High: -0.01 · Sma Dist 20: 0.04 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-02 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.448 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 4.22 · Days To Cover: 5.65 · Ret 20d: 0.11 · Dist 52w Low: 0.37 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-01 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.465 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 4.22 · Days To Cover: 5.65 · Ret 20d: 0.11 · Dist 52w Low: 0.38 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-06-30 | N3 · Failed Breakout | partial | 0.481 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: 52w_high · Dist 52w High: -0.00 · Sma Dist 20: 0.04 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-30 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.481 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 4.22 · Days To Cover: 5.65 · Ret 20d: 0.12 · Dist 52w Low: 0.36 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-06-26 | N3 · Failed Breakout | partial | 0.311 | 2 | new | Breakout Level: 52w_high · Dist 52w High: -0.00 · Sma Dist 20: 0.05 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.432 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.21% · 1-day return: 0.21% · Beta (60d): 0.24 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.65% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.420 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.32% · 1-day return: -0.32% · Beta (60d): 0.45 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.32% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.506 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.32% · 1-day return: -0.32% · Beta (60d): 0.45 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.32% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.571 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.32% · 1-day return: -0.32% · Beta (60d): 0.45 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.32% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.097 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.23% · 1-day return: 0.23% · Beta (60d): 0.46 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.513 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.10% · 1-day return: -1.10% · Beta (60d): 0.45 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-16 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.439 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.06% · 1-day return: 1.06% · Beta (60d): 0.44 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-15 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.841 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.60% · 1-day return: -2.60% · Beta (60d): 0.41 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |