MAT
Mattel
Screener candidate detail · 3 active archetypes
Active
3
archetypes
History
53
rows
Days on list
101
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
6 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
A3 · Positioning Extremepartialpersisting
score: 0.254confluence: 1days: 101as of 2026-09-11
Triggers:short_pct 10.9% (below 15% floor)days_to_cover 8.10 (extreme)ret_20d -6.0% (falling)dist_52w_low +7.4% (above lows)price_holding:not_confirmedprice_resilient:not_confirmed (needs ret_20d >= +5% for primed)skew:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design)quality:pass
Dislocation:
Short Pct Float
10.94
Days To Cover
8.10
Ret 20d
-0.06
Dist 52w Low
0.07
Short Extreme
Yes
Short Pct Extreme
No
Days To Cover Extreme
Yes
Price Holding
No
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationpartialpersisting
score: 0.254confluence: 1days: 3as of 2026-09-11
Triggers:regime:structural_deratefragility_gate:not_fragile (derate without structural confirm)
Dislocation:
Regime Tag
structural_derate
Fragile
No
Gate Abstained
No
Fragility Reasons
beta 0.08 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -14.7% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 49 < 60 (calm)
Fragility Legs Fired
1.00
Credit Amplified
No
Derate Depth Below 200d
0.15
Sma Dist 200
-0.15
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
N3 · Failed Breakoutprimedpersisting
score: 0.070confluence: 1days: 6as of 2026-09-01
Triggers:quality:passrecent_breakout_above:sma20failure_bar:-0.2%failure_vol:weak:0.08sustained_below
Dislocation:
Breakout Level
sma20
Dist 52w High
-0.33
Sma Dist 20
0.01
Recent Push
Yes
Below Level
Yes
Failure Bar
Yes
Sustained Below
Yes
1-day return
-0.20%
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recoveryactive
10 days
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragilityactive
10 days
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragilityactive
10 daysripe: Loaded
A2 · Oversold Sympathy
3 days
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling
10 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
10 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 1/7 directionally right · mean -2.0% · small sample, illustrative not proof
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragility2026-09-10 → open2 bars
-1.2%open · MTM
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-08-28 → open10 bars
+6.1%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-08-18 → 2026-08-192 bars
-1.0%closed
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-08-13 → 2026-08-142 bars
-1.9%dropped
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-07-15 → 2026-07-162 bars
-2.2%closed
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragility2026-06-22 → 2026-07-2424 bars
-2.9%dropped
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
-5.8%closed
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-06-12 → 2026-06-163 bars
+3.7%closed
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilinglong recovery2026-06-09 → 2026-06-229 bars
-3.7%closed
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-04 → open69 bars
-4.8%open · MTM
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.254 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.94 · Days To Cover: 8.10 · Ret 20d: -0.06 · Dist 52w Low: 0.07 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-11 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.254 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.08 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -14.7% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 49 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-09-10 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.319 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.87 · Days To Cover: 6.41 · Ret 20d: -0.06 · Dist 52w Low: 0.06 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-10 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.319 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.07 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -16.1% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 49 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-09-09 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.342 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.87 · Days To Cover: 6.41 · Ret 20d: -0.09 · Dist 52w Low: 0.05 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-09 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.342 | 1 | new | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta -0.03 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -16.5% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 54 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-09-08 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.238 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.87 · Days To Cover: 6.41 · Ret 20d: -0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.08 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-04 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.237 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.87 · Days To Cover: 6.41 · Ret 20d: -0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.11 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-03 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.238 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.87 · Days To Cover: 6.41 · Ret 20d: -0.01 · Dist 52w Low: 0.10 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-02 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.267 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.87 · Days To Cover: 6.41 · Ret 20d: -0.01 · Dist 52w Low: 0.12 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-01 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.070 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.33 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-09-01 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.290 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.87 · Days To Cover: 6.41 · Ret 20d: -0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.12 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-31 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.337 | 2 | exited | 1-day return: -3.04% · 1-day return: -3.04% · Beta (60d): -0.03 · Sector return (1d): -1.23% · Sector return: -1.23% · Borrowed drop: -3.08% |
| 2026-08-31 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.291 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.87 · Days To Cover: 6.41 · Ret 20d: -0.01 · Dist 52w Low: 0.15 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-28 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.290 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.87 · Days To Cover: 6.41 · Ret 20d: 0.00 · Dist 52w Low: 0.16 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-27 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.790 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.33 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-26 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.302 | 1 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-24 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.337 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.04% · 1-day return: -3.04% · Beta (60d): -0.03 · Sector return (1d): -1.23% · Sector return: -1.23% · Borrowed drop: -3.08% |
| 2026-08-19 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.377 | 1 | decayed | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.04 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -18.1% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 68 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-08-17 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.337 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -3.04% · 1-day return: -3.04% · Beta (60d): -0.03 · Sector return (1d): -1.23% · Sector return: -1.23% · Borrowed drop: -3.08% |
| 2026-08-12 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.302 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-12 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.454 | 2 | exited | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 12.75 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-08-11 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.648 | 2 | exited | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.38 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-28 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.648 | 2 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.38 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-22 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.377 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.04 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -18.1% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 68 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-15 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.454 | 2 | decayed | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 12.75 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-07-15 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.371 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.11 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -19.4% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 57 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-14 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.648 | 2 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.38 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-14 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.648 | 2 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.13 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -20.6% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 58 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-13 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.069 | 3 | exited | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.009 | 2 | exited | 1-day return: 1.22% · 1-day return: 1.22% · Beta (60d): 0.35 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.04% |
| 2026-07-13 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.14 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -19.7% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 58 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-10 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.27 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -22.7% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 48 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-09 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.26 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -23.7% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 49 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.009 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: 1.22% · 1-day return: 1.22% · Beta (60d): 0.35 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.04% |
| 2026-06-28 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.069 | 3 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.009 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.22% · 1-day return: 1.22% · Beta (60d): 0.35 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.04% |
| 2026-06-23 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.054 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.87% · 1-day return: -0.87% · Beta (60d): 0.53 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.01 · Spy Ret Pct: -1.20% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.24% |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.188 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.07% · 1-day return: -1.07% · Beta (60d): 0.55 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.89% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.395 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 2.67% · 1-day return: 2.67% · Beta (60d): 0.54 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 2.67% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.398 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 2.67% · 1-day return: 2.67% · Beta (60d): 0.54 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 2.67% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.402 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 2.67% · 1-day return: 2.67% · Beta (60d): 0.54 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 2.67% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.571 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.49% · 1-day return: 1.49% · Beta (60d): 0.51 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.454 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.31% · 1-day return: -3.31% · Beta (60d): 0.51 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.454 | 2 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 12.75 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-16 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.305 | 2 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 2.39 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-15 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.384 | 2 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 1.99 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-14 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.069 | 3 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-14 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.069 | 3 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 0.40 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-13 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.088 | 2 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 0.40 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-12 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.099 | 2 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 0.40 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-11 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.159 | 2 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 1.59 · Inside Day: Yes · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-10 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 7.57 · Inside Day: Yes · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |