MAT
Mattel
Screener candidate detail · 3 active archetypes
Active
3
archetypes
History
54
rows
Days on list
1
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
5 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
N3 · Failed Breakoutprimednew
score: 0.648confluence: 2days: 1as of 2026-07-14
Triggers:quality:passrecent_breakout_above:sma20failure_bar:-1.2%failure_vol:weak:1.13sustained_below
Dislocation:
Breakout Level
sma20
Dist 52w High
-0.38
Sma Dist 20
-0.00
Recent Push
Yes
Below Level
Yes
Failure Bar
Yes
Sustained Below
Yes
1-day return
-1.24%
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationpartialpersisting
score: 0.377confluence: 1days: 33as of 2026-07-22
Triggers:regime:structural_deratefragility_gate:not_fragile (derate without structural confirm)
Dislocation:
Regime Tag
structural_derate
Fragile
No
Gate Abstained
No
Fragility Reasons
beta 0.04 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -18.1% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 68 >= 60 (elevated)
Fragility Legs Fired
2.00
Credit Amplified
No
Derate Depth Below 200d
0.18
Sma Dist 200
-0.18
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
A3 · Positioning Extremepartialpersisting
score: 0.353confluence: 1days: 55as of 2026-07-27
Triggers:short_pct 11.5% (below 15% floor)days_to_cover 5.20 (extreme)ret_20d +5.7% (holding)dist_52w_low +13.4% (above lows)price_holding:confirmedskew:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design)quality:pass
Dislocation:
Short Pct Float
11.54
Days To Cover
5.20
Ret 20d
0.06
Dist 52w Low
0.13
Short Extreme
Yes
Short Pct Extreme
No
Days To Cover Extreme
Yes
Price Holding
Yes
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recoveryactive
12 days
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragilityactive
12 days
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragilityactive
7 days
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling
11 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
12 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 1/4 directionally right · mean -2.0% · small sample, illustrative not proof
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-07-15 → 2026-07-162 bars
-2.2%dropped
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragility2026-06-22 → open25 bars
-7.1%open · MTM
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
-5.8%closed
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-06-12 → 2026-06-163 bars
+3.7%closed
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilinglong recovery2026-06-09 → 2026-06-229 bars
-3.7%dropped
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-04 → open36 bars
+4.0%open · MTM
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.353 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 11.54 · Days To Cover: 5.20 · Ret 20d: 0.06 · Dist 52w Low: 0.13 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-24 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.363 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 11.54 · Days To Cover: 5.20 · Ret 20d: 0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.10 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-23 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.367 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.42 · Days To Cover: 5.21 · Ret 20d: 0.03 · Dist 52w Low: 0.09 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-22 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.371 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.42 · Days To Cover: 5.21 · Ret 20d: 0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.10 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-22 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.377 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.04 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -18.1% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 68 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-21 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.377 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.42 · Days To Cover: 5.21 · Ret 20d: 0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.09 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-20 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.388 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.42 · Days To Cover: 5.21 · Ret 20d: 0.01 · Dist 52w Low: 0.08 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-17 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.388 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.42 · Days To Cover: 5.21 · Ret 20d: 0.05 · Dist 52w Low: 0.10 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-16 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.395 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.42 · Days To Cover: 5.21 · Ret 20d: 0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.12 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-15 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.371 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.42 · Days To Cover: 5.21 · Ret 20d: -0.03 · Dist 52w Low: 0.06 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-15 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.454 | 2 | decayed | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 12.75 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-07-15 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.371 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.11 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -19.4% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 57 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-14 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.648 | 2 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.38 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-14 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.648 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.42 · Days To Cover: 5.21 · Ret 20d: -0.07 · Dist 52w Low: 0.05 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-14 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.648 | 2 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.13 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -20.6% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 58 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-13 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.069 | 3 | exited | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.009 | 2 | exited | 1-day return: 1.22% · 1-day return: 1.22% · Beta (60d): 0.35 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.04% |
| 2026-07-13 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.42 · Days To Cover: 5.21 · Ret 20d: -0.06 · Dist 52w Low: 0.06 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-13 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.14 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -19.7% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 58 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-10 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 11.48 · Days To Cover: 6.89 · Ret 20d: -0.10 · Dist 52w Low: 0.02 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-10 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.27 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -22.7% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 48 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-09 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.26 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -23.7% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 49 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-08 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.24 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -23.8% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 53 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-07 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.420 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.22 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -22.5% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 53 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.009 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: 1.22% · 1-day return: 1.22% · Beta (60d): 0.35 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.04% |
| 2026-07-06 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.28 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -24.7% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 46 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-02 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.30 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -23.1% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 39 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-01 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.465 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.28 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -20.9% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 28 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-30 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.28 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -20.2% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 45 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-28 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.069 | 3 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.009 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.22% · 1-day return: 1.22% · Beta (60d): 0.35 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.04% |
| 2026-06-23 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.054 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.87% · 1-day return: -0.87% · Beta (60d): 0.53 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.01 · Spy Ret Pct: -1.20% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.24% |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.188 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.07% · 1-day return: -1.07% · Beta (60d): 0.55 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.89% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.395 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 2.67% · 1-day return: 2.67% · Beta (60d): 0.54 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 2.67% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.398 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 2.67% · 1-day return: 2.67% · Beta (60d): 0.54 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 2.67% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.402 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 2.67% · 1-day return: 2.67% · Beta (60d): 0.54 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 2.67% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.571 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.49% · 1-day return: 1.49% · Beta (60d): 0.51 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.454 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.31% · 1-day return: -3.31% · Beta (60d): 0.51 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.454 | 2 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 12.75 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-16 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.305 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.54% · 1-day return: -1.54% · Beta (60d): 0.46 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-16 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.305 | 2 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 2.39 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-15 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.384 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.07% · 1-day return: -2.07% · Beta (60d): 0.45 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-15 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.384 | 2 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 1.99 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-14 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.069 | 3 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-14 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.069 | 3 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 0.40 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-13 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.088 | 2 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-13 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.088 | 2 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 0.40 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-12 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.099 | 2 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-12 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.099 | 2 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 0.40 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-11 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.159 | 2 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-11 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.159 | 2 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 1.59 · Inside Day: Yes · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-10 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 7.57 · Inside Day: Yes · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-09 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 7.17 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-06-08 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 7.17 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: No · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |