HOG
Harley-Davidson
Screener candidate detail · 3 active archetypes
Active
3
archetypes
History
49
rows
Days on list
1
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
6 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
A2 · Oversold Sympathyprimednew
score: 0.521confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-09-08
Triggers:ret_1d -4.0%quality:passunexplained:idiosyncratic — real A2 (attribution_confidence=low; low confidence here = HIGH A2 conviction)no_own_news (weak flag — store coverage limited)borrowed_drop -3.47pp (unexplained)sector_explained 0.70×-0.8%=-0.6pp
Dislocation:
1-day return
-4.04%
1-day return
-4.04%
Beta (60d)
0.70
Sector return (1d)
-0.80%
Sector return
-0.80%
Borrowed drop
-3.47%
Own news
No
Newsless
Yes
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilingpartialnew
score: 0.000confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-09-11
Triggers:rvol_pctile 15.1 (tight ≤20)quality:passNR7: confirmedcatalyst: no upcoming date foundNOTE: vol setup — resolves both ways (not directional)iv_pctile:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design; score = rvol×proximity only)
Dislocation:
Realized Vol Pct 1y
15.14
Inside Day
No
Nr7
Yes
Days To Catalyst
—
Proximity Factor
0.00
Iv Pctile
—
Options Legs Enabled
Yes
Gate pass
Yes
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
A3 · Positioning Extremepartialpersisting
score: 0.000confluence: 1days: 101as of 2026-09-11
Triggers:short_pct 17.0% (extreme)days_to_cover 9.99 (extreme)ret_20d -1.1% (holding)dist_52w_low +61.5% (above lows)price_holding:confirmedprice_resilient:not_confirmed (needs ret_20d >= +5% for primed)skew:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design)quality:pass
Dislocation:
Short Pct Float
16.98
Days To Cover
9.99
Ret 20d
-0.01
Dist 52w Low
0.62
Short Extreme
Yes
Short Pct Extreme
Yes
Days To Cover Extreme
Yes
Price Holding
Yes
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilinglong recoveryactive
1 day
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recoveryactive
10 days
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recoveryactive
10 days
N3 · Failed Breakout
10 days
A8 · PEAD Beat Drift
8 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
10 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 0/6 directionally right · mean -4.1% · small sample, illustrative not proof
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-09-09 → open3 bars
+0.6%open · MTM
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-08-07 → 2026-08-124 bars
-3.9%closed
A8 · PEAD Beat Driftlong recovery2026-07-27 → 2026-08-047 bars
-2.8%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-24 → 2026-07-316 bars
-7.1%closed
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
-6.8%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-11 → 2026-07-0114 bars
-1.5%closed
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-06-11 → 2026-07-1321 bars
-2.8%dropped
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-04 → open69 bars
+11.6%open · MTM
1 episode could not be priced (missing OHLCV) and is omitted.
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 16.98 · Days To Cover: 9.99 · Ret 20d: -0.01 · Dist 52w Low: 0.62 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-11 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | new | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 15.14 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-09-10 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.244 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.97 · Days To Cover: 9.29 · Ret 20d: 0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.58 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-09 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.241 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.97 · Days To Cover: 9.29 · Ret 20d: -0.00 · Dist 52w Low: 0.56 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-08 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.308 | 1 | exited | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.14 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-09-08 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.521 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -4.04% · 1-day return: -4.04% · Beta (60d): 0.70 · Sector return (1d): -0.80% · Sector return: -0.80% · Borrowed drop: -3.47% |
| 2026-09-08 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.521 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.97 · Days To Cover: 9.29 · Ret 20d: 0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.59 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-04 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | primed | 0.237 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.97 · Days To Cover: 9.29 · Ret 20d: 0.08 · Dist 52w Low: 0.66 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-03 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | primed | 0.238 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.97 · Days To Cover: 9.29 · Ret 20d: 0.07 · Dist 52w Low: 0.62 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-02 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.267 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.97 · Days To Cover: 9.29 · Ret 20d: 0.05 · Dist 52w Low: 0.63 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-09-01 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | primed | 0.290 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.97 · Days To Cover: 9.29 · Ret 20d: 0.07 · Dist 52w Low: 0.59 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-08-31 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.291 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.97 · Days To Cover: 9.29 · Ret 20d: 0.09 · Dist 52w Low: 0.62 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-08-28 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.522 | 2 | exited | Eps Surprise: 0.17 · Days Since Earnings: 8.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-08-28 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.290 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 17.97 · Days To Cover: 9.29 · Ret 20d: 0.14 · Dist 52w Low: 0.65 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-08-24 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.308 | 1 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.14 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-14 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.522 | 2 | decayed | Eps Surprise: 0.17 · Days Since Earnings: 8.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-08-12 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.464 | 3 | exited | 1-day return: -3.26% · 1-day return: -3.26% · Beta (60d): 0.85 · Sector return (1d): -0.47% · Sector return: -0.47% · Borrowed drop: -2.86% |
| 2026-08-10 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.308 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.14 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-06 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.311 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.14 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-05 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.464 | 3 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.26% · 1-day return: -3.26% · Beta (60d): 0.85 · Sector return (1d): -0.47% · Sector return: -0.47% · Borrowed drop: -2.86% |
| 2026-07-31 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.522 | 2 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.17 · Days Since Earnings: 8.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-30 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.525 | 2 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.17 · Days Since Earnings: 7.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-29 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.464 | 3 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.26% · 1-day return: -3.26% · Beta (60d): 0.85 · Sector return (1d): -0.47% · Sector return: -0.47% · Borrowed drop: -2.86% |
| 2026-07-29 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.524 | 2 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.17 · Days Since Earnings: 6.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-28 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.525 | 2 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.17 · Days Since Earnings: 5.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-27 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.524 | 2 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.17 · Days Since Earnings: 4.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-24 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.583 | 3 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.96% · 1-day return: -3.96% · Beta (60d): 0.80 · Sector return (1d): 0.60% · Sector return: 0.60% · Borrowed drop: -4.44% |
| 2026-07-24 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.583 | 3 | new | Eps Surprise: 0.17 · Days Since Earnings: 1.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-23 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.397 | 1 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.17 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-23 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.203 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -4.06% · 1-day return: -4.06% · Beta (60d): 0.78 · Sector return (1d): -4.72% · Sector return: -4.72% · Borrowed drop: -0.40% |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.472 | 2 | exited | 1-day return: -1.07% · 1-day return: -1.07% · Beta (60d): 0.74 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.07% |
| 2026-07-13 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.629 | 2 | exited | 1-day return: -3.89% · 1-day return: -3.89% · Beta (60d): 0.58 · Sector return (1d): 2.38% · Sector return: 2.38% · Borrowed drop: -5.25% |
| 2026-07-09 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.397 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.17 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-08 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.408 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.16 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.472 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -1.07% · 1-day return: -1.07% · Beta (60d): 0.74 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.07% |
| 2026-07-06 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.629 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.89% · 1-day return: -3.89% · Beta (60d): 0.58 · Sector return (1d): 2.38% · Sector return: 2.38% · Borrowed drop: -5.25% |
| 2026-06-29 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.516 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.18 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-29 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.629 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.89% · 1-day return: -3.89% · Beta (60d): 0.58 · Sector return (1d): 2.38% · Sector return: 2.38% · Borrowed drop: -5.25% |
| 2026-06-28 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.472 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.07% · 1-day return: -1.07% · Beta (60d): 0.74 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.07% |
| 2026-06-27 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.492 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.07% · 1-day return: -1.07% · Beta (60d): 0.74 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.04% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.04% |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.729 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.07% · 1-day return: -1.07% · Beta (60d): 0.74 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.72% |
| 2026-06-24 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.669 | 2 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.19 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-24 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.379 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.12% · 1-day return: -0.12% · Beta (60d): 0.81 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.36% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.41% |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.605 | 3 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.89% · 1-day return: -3.89% · Beta (60d): 0.67 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.68% |
| 2026-06-22 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.605 | 3 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.89% · 1-day return: -3.89% · Beta (60d): 0.67 · Sector return (1d): -1.91% · Sector return: -1.91% · Borrowed drop: -2.62% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.592 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.02% · 1-day return: 1.02% · Beta (60d): 0.62 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 1.02% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.642 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.02% · 1-day return: 1.02% · Beta (60d): 0.62 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 1.02% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.706 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.02% · 1-day return: 1.02% · Beta (60d): 0.62 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 1.02% |
| 2026-06-10 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.669 | 2 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.19 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |