HOG
Harley-Davidson
Screener candidate detail · 3 active archetypes
Active
3
archetypes
History
40
rows
Days on list
2
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
5 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
A2 · Oversold Sympathypartialpersisting
score: 0.583confluence: 3days: 2as of 2026-07-24
Triggers:ret_1d -4.0%quality:passdemoted:partial explained by recent_earnings (attribution_confidence=high)no_own_news (weak flag — store coverage limited)borrowed_drop -4.44pp (unexplained)sector_explained 0.80×+0.6%=+0.5pp
Dislocation:
1-day return
-3.96%
1-day return
-3.96%
Beta (60d)
0.80
Sector return (1d)
0.60%
Sector return
0.60%
Borrowed drop
-4.44%
Own news
No
Newsless
Yes
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
A3 · Positioning Extremepartialpersisting
score: 0.524confluence: 2days: 55as of 2026-07-27
Triggers:short_pct 16.4% (extreme)days_to_cover 8.49 (extreme)ret_20d -1.6% (holding)dist_52w_low +45.3% (above lows)price_holding:confirmedskew:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design)quality:pass
Dislocation:
Short Pct Float
16.44
Days To Cover
8.49
Ret 20d
-0.02
Dist 52w Low
0.45
Short Extreme
Yes
Short Pct Extreme
Yes
Days To Cover Extreme
Yes
Price Holding
Yes
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
A8 · PEAD Beat Driftprimedpersisting
score: 0.524confluence: 2days: 4as of 2026-07-27
Triggers:quality:passeps_beat:primed (0.172 >= 0.1)earnings_4d_ago
Dislocation:
Eps Surprise
0.17
Days Since Earnings
4.00
Recency Max
10.00
Primed Floor
0.10
Partial Floor
0.03
Direction Of Evidence
pead_beat_continuation
Honesty Caveat
PROVISIONAL. Validated in a single calm post-2022 regime only — no bear in-sample. rank-IC 5d +0.128 [+0.034,+0.216]; 10d +0.125. DISTINCT FROM A1 (A1 is contrarian gap-down recovery; A8 is continuation in the beat direction, no gap-down required). CONTEXT — never advice.
Analyst
[object Object]
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recoveryactive
12 days
A8 · PEAD Beat Driftlong recoveryactive
2 daysripe: Loaded
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recoveryactive
8 daysripe: Confirmed
N3 · Failed Breakout
6 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
12 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 0/2 directionally right · mean -4.1% · small sample, illustrative not proof
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-24 → open2 bars
-5.9%open · MTM
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
-6.8%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-11 → 2026-07-0114 bars
-1.5%closed
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-06-11 → open31 bars
-0.7%open · MTM
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-04 → open36 bars
+3.7%open · MTM
1 episode could not be priced (missing OHLCV) and is omitted.
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.524 | 2 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.17 · Days Since Earnings: 4.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-27 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.524 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 16.44 · Days To Cover: 8.49 · Ret 20d: -0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.45 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-07-24 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.583 | 3 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.96% · 1-day return: -3.96% · Beta (60d): 0.80 · Sector return (1d): 0.60% · Sector return: 0.60% · Borrowed drop: -4.44% |
| 2026-07-24 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.583 | 3 | new | Eps Surprise: 0.17 · Days Since Earnings: 1.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-24 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.583 | 3 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 16.44 · Days To Cover: 8.49 · Ret 20d: 0.00 · Dist 52w Low: 0.49 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-07-23 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.397 | 1 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.17 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-23 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.203 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -4.06% · 1-day return: -4.06% · Beta (60d): 0.78 · Sector return (1d): -4.72% · Sector return: -4.72% · Borrowed drop: -0.40% |
| 2026-07-23 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.203 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 16.39 · Days To Cover: 4.43 · Ret 20d: 0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.55 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-07-22 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.371 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 16.39 · Days To Cover: 4.43 · Ret 20d: 0.08 · Dist 52w Low: 0.62 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-07-21 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.377 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 16.39 · Days To Cover: 4.43 · Ret 20d: 0.14 · Dist 52w Low: 0.67 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-07-20 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.388 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 16.39 · Days To Cover: 4.43 · Ret 20d: 0.08 · Dist 52w Low: 0.63 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-07-17 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.388 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 16.39 · Days To Cover: 4.43 · Ret 20d: 0.05 · Dist 52w Low: 0.56 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-07-16 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.395 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 16.39 · Days To Cover: 4.43 · Ret 20d: 0.05 · Dist 52w Low: 0.57 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-07-15 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.371 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 16.39 · Days To Cover: 4.43 · Ret 20d: -0.00 · Dist 52w Low: 0.52 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-07-14 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.376 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 16.39 · Days To Cover: 4.43 · Ret 20d: -0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.47 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.472 | 2 | exited | 1-day return: -1.07% · 1-day return: -1.07% · Beta (60d): 0.74 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.07% |
| 2026-07-13 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.629 | 2 | exited | 1-day return: -3.89% · 1-day return: -3.89% · Beta (60d): 0.58 · Sector return (1d): 2.38% · Sector return: 2.38% · Borrowed drop: -5.25% |
| 2026-07-13 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.380 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 16.39 · Days To Cover: 4.43 · Ret 20d: -0.01 · Dist 52w Low: 0.49 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-07-10 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.386 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 15.68 · Days To Cover: 7.24 · Ret 20d: 0.03 · Dist 52w Low: 0.47 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: Yes |
| 2026-07-09 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.397 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.17 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-08 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.408 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.16 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.472 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -1.07% · 1-day return: -1.07% · Beta (60d): 0.74 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.07% |
| 2026-07-06 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.629 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.89% · 1-day return: -3.89% · Beta (60d): 0.58 · Sector return (1d): 2.38% · Sector return: 2.38% · Borrowed drop: -5.25% |
| 2026-06-29 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.516 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.18 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-29 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.629 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.89% · 1-day return: -3.89% · Beta (60d): 0.58 · Sector return (1d): 2.38% · Sector return: 2.38% · Borrowed drop: -5.25% |
| 2026-06-28 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.472 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.07% · 1-day return: -1.07% · Beta (60d): 0.74 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.07% |
| 2026-06-27 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.492 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.07% · 1-day return: -1.07% · Beta (60d): 0.74 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.04% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.04% |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.729 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.07% · 1-day return: -1.07% · Beta (60d): 0.74 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.72% |
| 2026-06-24 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.669 | 2 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.19 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-24 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.379 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.12% · 1-day return: -0.12% · Beta (60d): 0.81 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.36% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.41% |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.605 | 3 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.89% · 1-day return: -3.89% · Beta (60d): 0.67 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.68% |
| 2026-06-22 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.605 | 3 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.89% · 1-day return: -3.89% · Beta (60d): 0.67 · Sector return (1d): -1.91% · Sector return: -1.91% · Borrowed drop: -2.62% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.592 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.02% · 1-day return: 1.02% · Beta (60d): 0.62 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 1.02% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.642 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.02% · 1-day return: 1.02% · Beta (60d): 0.62 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 1.02% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.706 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.02% · 1-day return: 1.02% · Beta (60d): 0.62 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 1.02% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.296 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.71% · 1-day return: -0.71% · Beta (60d): 0.61 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.404 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.82% · 1-day return: -0.82% · Beta (60d): 0.57 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.669 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -4.29% · 1-day return: -4.29% · Beta (60d): 0.45 · Sector return (1d): -2.08% · Sector return: -2.08% · Borrowed drop: -3.36% |
| 2026-06-10 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.669 | 2 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.19 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-10 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.669 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -4.29% · 1-day return: -4.29% · Beta (60d): 0.45 · Sector return (1d): -2.08% · Sector return: -2.08% · Borrowed drop: -3.36% |