ERIE
Erie Indemnity
Screener candidate detail · 2 active archetypes
Active
2
archetypes
History
44
rows
Days on list
1
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
4 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
A2 · Oversold Sympathypartialnew
score: 0.795confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-09-08
Triggers:ret_1d -3.8%quality:passdemoted:partial explained by sub_industry_move (attribution_confidence=medium)no_own_news (weak flag — store coverage limited)borrowed_drop -4.99pp (unexplained)sector_explained -0.85×-1.4%=+1.2pp
Dislocation:
1-day return
-3.81%
1-day return
-3.81%
Beta (60d)
-0.85
Sector return (1d)
-1.39%
Sector return
-1.39%
Borrowed drop
-4.99%
Own news
No
Newsless
Yes
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
A3 · Positioning Extremepartialpersisting
score: 0.000confluence: 0days: 100as of 2026-09-11
Triggers:short_pct 10.4% (below 15% floor)days_to_cover 6.84 (extreme)ret_20d -6.4% (falling)dist_52w_low +16.4% (above lows)price_holding:not_confirmedprice_resilient:not_confirmed (needs ret_20d >= +5% for primed)skew:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design)quality:pass
Dislocation:
Short Pct Float
10.43
Days To Cover
6.84
Ret 20d
-0.06
Dist 52w Low
0.16
Short Extreme
Yes
Short Pct Extreme
No
Days To Cover Extreme
Yes
Price Holding
No
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recoveryactive
15 days
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recoveryactive
15 days
N3 · Failed Breakout
3 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
11 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 4/6 directionally right · mean -0.5% · small sample, illustrative not proof
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-09-09 → open3 bars
-1.1%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-08-26 → open12 bars
-6.2%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-08-18 → 2026-08-192 bars
+1.9%dropped
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-31 → 2026-08-032 bars
+0.5%closed
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-07-31 → 2026-08-032 bars
-0.5%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-15 → 2026-07-237 bars
-8.8%dropped
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-23 → 2026-06-242 bars
+3.1%closed
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-247 bars
+0.5%closed
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-05 → open68 bars
+3.7%open · MTM
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.43 · Days To Cover: 6.84 · Ret 20d: -0.06 · Dist 52w Low: 0.16 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-10 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.70 · Days To Cover: 10.78 · Ret 20d: -0.07 · Dist 52w Low: 0.17 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-09 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.70 · Days To Cover: 10.78 · Ret 20d: -0.05 · Dist 52w Low: 0.18 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-08 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.795 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -3.81% · 1-day return: -3.81% · Beta (60d): -0.85 · Sector return (1d): -1.39% · Sector return: -1.39% · Borrowed drop: -4.99% |
| 2026-09-08 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.795 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.70 · Days To Cover: 10.78 · Ret 20d: -0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.18 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-04 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.237 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.70 · Days To Cover: 10.78 · Ret 20d: 0.00 · Dist 52w Low: 0.23 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-03 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.238 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.70 · Days To Cover: 10.78 · Ret 20d: 0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.25 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-02 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | primed | 0.267 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.70 · Days To Cover: 10.78 · Ret 20d: 0.06 · Dist 52w Low: 0.25 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-01 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.600 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -4.05% · 1-day return: -4.05% · Beta (60d): -1.07 · Sector return (1d): 0.15% · Sector return: 0.15% · Borrowed drop: -3.88% |
| 2026-09-01 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | primed | 0.290 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.70 · Days To Cover: 10.78 · Ret 20d: 0.08 · Dist 52w Low: 0.24 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-31 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.291 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.70 · Days To Cover: 10.78 · Ret 20d: 0.05 · Dist 52w Low: 0.24 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-28 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.290 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.70 · Days To Cover: 10.78 · Ret 20d: 0.07 · Dist 52w Low: 0.26 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-27 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.407 | 2 | exited | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.35 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-27 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.292 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.70 · Days To Cover: 10.78 · Ret 20d: 0.10 · Dist 52w Low: 0.26 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-26 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.293 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.70 · Days To Cover: 10.78 · Ret 20d: 0.03 · Dist 52w Low: 0.25 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-25 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.600 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -4.05% · 1-day return: -4.05% · Beta (60d): -1.07 · Sector return (1d): 0.15% · Sector return: 0.15% · Borrowed drop: -3.88% |
| 2026-08-25 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.600 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 11.32 · Days To Cover: 8.89 · Ret 20d: 0.06 · Dist 52w Low: 0.25 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-24 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.492 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.27% · 1-day return: -3.27% · Beta (60d): -1.10 · Sector return (1d): -1.00% · Sector return: -1.00% · Borrowed drop: -4.37% |
| 2026-08-24 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.294 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 11.32 · Days To Cover: 8.89 · Ret 20d: 0.16 · Dist 52w Low: 0.30 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-21 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.294 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 11.32 · Days To Cover: 8.89 · Ret 20d: 0.17 · Dist 52w Low: 0.29 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-17 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.492 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -3.27% · 1-day return: -3.27% · Beta (60d): -1.10 · Sector return (1d): -1.00% · Sector return: -1.00% · Borrowed drop: -4.37% |
| 2026-08-13 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.407 | 2 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.35 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-13 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.407 | 2 | exited | 1-day return: -6.17% · 1-day return: -6.17% · Beta (60d): -1.28 · Sector return (1d): 0.56% · Sector return: 0.56% · Borrowed drop: -5.45% |
| 2026-08-06 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.407 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -6.17% · 1-day return: -6.17% · Beta (60d): -1.28 · Sector return (1d): 0.56% · Sector return: 0.56% · Borrowed drop: -5.45% |
| 2026-07-30 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.407 | 2 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.35 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-30 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.407 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -6.17% · 1-day return: -6.17% · Beta (60d): -1.28 · Sector return (1d): 0.56% · Sector return: 0.56% · Borrowed drop: -5.45% |
| 2026-07-28 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.500 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -4.17% · 1-day return: -4.17% · Beta (60d): -1.16 · Sector return (1d): 0.12% · Sector return: 0.12% · Borrowed drop: -4.02% |
| 2026-07-21 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.500 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.17% · 1-day return: -4.17% · Beta (60d): -1.16 · Sector return (1d): 0.12% · Sector return: 0.12% · Borrowed drop: -4.02% |
| 2026-07-15 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.494 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -12.62% · 1-day return: -12.62% · Beta (60d): -1.03 · Sector return (1d): 0.67% · Sector return: 0.67% · Borrowed drop: -11.93% |
| 2026-07-14 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.425 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -3.58% · 1-day return: -3.58% · Beta (60d): -0.87 · Sector return (1d): 0.20% · Sector return: 0.20% · Borrowed drop: -3.41% |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.517 | 3 | exited | 1-day return: -4.39% · 1-day return: -4.39% · Beta (60d): -0.41 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -4.52% |
| 2026-07-06 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.517 | 3 | exited | 1-day return: -4.39% · 1-day return: -4.39% · Beta (60d): -0.41 · Sector return (1d): 0.24% · Sector return: 0.24% · Borrowed drop: -4.29% |
| 2026-06-29 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.517 | 3 | decayed | 1-day return: -4.39% · 1-day return: -4.39% · Beta (60d): -0.41 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -4.52% |
| 2026-06-29 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.517 | 3 | decayed | 1-day return: -4.39% · 1-day return: -4.39% · Beta (60d): -0.41 · Sector return (1d): 0.24% · Sector return: 0.24% · Borrowed drop: -4.29% |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.517 | 3 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.39% · 1-day return: -4.39% · Beta (60d): -0.41 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -4.52% |
| 2026-06-22 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.517 | 3 | new | 1-day return: -4.39% · 1-day return: -4.39% · Beta (60d): -0.41 · Sector return (1d): 0.24% · Sector return: 0.24% · Borrowed drop: -4.29% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.399 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.23% · 1-day return: -0.23% · Beta (60d): -0.46 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.23% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.486 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.23% · 1-day return: -0.23% · Beta (60d): -0.46 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.23% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.550 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.23% · 1-day return: -0.23% · Beta (60d): -0.46 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.23% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.323 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.78% · 1-day return: -0.78% · Beta (60d): -0.47 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.726 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.79% · 1-day return: -1.79% · Beta (60d): -0.44 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-16 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.307 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.71% · 1-day return: 0.71% · Beta (60d): -0.46 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-15 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.538 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.17% · 1-day return: -1.17% · Beta (60d): -0.43 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-14 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.132 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.29% · 1-day return: 0.29% · Beta (60d): -0.40 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |