ERIE
Erie Indemnity
Screener candidate detail · 2 active archetypes
Active
2
archetypes
History
37
rows
Days on list
8
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
3 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
A2 · Oversold Sympathypartialpersisting
score: 0.500confluence: 2days: 8as of 2026-07-21
Triggers:ret_1d -4.2%quality:passdemoted:partial explained by sub_industry_move (attribution_confidence=medium)no_own_news (weak flag — store coverage limited)borrowed_drop -4.02pp (unexplained)sector_explained -1.16×+0.1%=-0.1pp
Dislocation:
1-day return
-4.17%
1-day return
-4.17%
Beta (60d)
-1.16
Sector return (1d)
0.12%
Sector return
0.12%
Borrowed drop
-4.02%
Own news
No
Newsless
Yes
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
A3 · Positioning Extremepartialpersisting
score: 0.353confluence: 1days: 54as of 2026-07-27
Triggers:short_pct 11.7% (below 15% floor)days_to_cover 10.59 (extreme)ret_20d -3.9% (holding)dist_52w_low +10.8% (above lows)price_holding:confirmedskew:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design)quality:pass
Dislocation:
Short Pct Float
11.72
Days To Cover
10.59
Ret 20d
-0.04
Dist 52w Low
0.11
Short Extreme
Yes
Short Pct Extreme
No
Days To Cover Extreme
Yes
Price Holding
Yes
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recoveryactive
20 days
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recoveryactive
6 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
11 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 2/2 directionally right · mean +1.8% · small sample, illustrative not proof
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-15 → open9 bars
-1.3%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-23 → 2026-06-242 bars
+3.1%closed
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-247 bars
+0.5%closed
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-05 → open35 bars
+2.0%open · MTM
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.353 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 11.72 · Days To Cover: 10.59 · Ret 20d: -0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.11 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-24 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.363 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 11.72 · Days To Cover: 10.59 · Ret 20d: -0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.08 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-23 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 11.63 · Days To Cover: 10.66 · Ret 20d: -0.06 · Dist 52w Low: 0.04 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-22 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.371 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 11.63 · Days To Cover: 10.66 · Ret 20d: -0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.02 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-21 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.500 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.17% · 1-day return: -4.17% · Beta (60d): -1.16 · Sector return (1d): 0.12% · Sector return: 0.12% · Borrowed drop: -4.02% |
| 2026-07-21 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.500 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 11.63 · Days To Cover: 10.66 · Ret 20d: 0.03 · Dist 52w Low: 0.05 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-20 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.388 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 11.63 · Days To Cover: 10.66 · Ret 20d: 0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.09 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-17 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.388 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 11.63 · Days To Cover: 10.66 · Ret 20d: 0.03 · Dist 52w Low: 0.10 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-16 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.395 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 11.63 · Days To Cover: 10.66 · Ret 20d: 0.01 · Dist 52w Low: 0.10 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-15 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.494 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -12.62% · 1-day return: -12.62% · Beta (60d): -1.03 · Sector return (1d): 0.67% · Sector return: 0.67% · Borrowed drop: -11.93% |
| 2026-07-15 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.494 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 11.63 · Days To Cover: 10.66 · Ret 20d: -0.06 · Dist 52w Low: 0.02 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-14 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.425 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -3.58% · 1-day return: -3.58% · Beta (60d): -0.87 · Sector return (1d): 0.20% · Sector return: 0.20% · Borrowed drop: -3.41% |
| 2026-07-14 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.425 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 11.63 · Days To Cover: 10.66 · Ret 20d: 0.06 · Dist 52w Low: 0.16 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-13 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.380 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 11.63 · Days To Cover: 10.66 · Ret 20d: 0.10 · Dist 52w Low: 0.20 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-10 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.386 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.67 · Days To Cover: 15.97 · Ret 20d: 0.09 · Dist 52w Low: 0.22 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-09 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.397 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.67 · Days To Cover: 15.97 · Ret 20d: 0.09 · Dist 52w Low: 0.20 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-08 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.408 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.67 · Days To Cover: 15.97 · Ret 20d: 0.12 · Dist 52w Low: 0.22 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-07 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.420 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.67 · Days To Cover: 15.97 · Ret 20d: 0.12 · Dist 52w Low: 0.24 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.517 | 3 | exited | 1-day return: -4.39% · 1-day return: -4.39% · Beta (60d): -0.41 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -4.52% |
| 2026-07-06 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.517 | 3 | exited | 1-day return: -4.39% · 1-day return: -4.39% · Beta (60d): -0.41 · Sector return (1d): 0.24% · Sector return: 0.24% · Borrowed drop: -4.29% |
| 2026-07-06 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.435 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.67 · Days To Cover: 15.97 · Ret 20d: 0.16 · Dist 52w Low: 0.24 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-02 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.448 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.67 · Days To Cover: 15.97 · Ret 20d: 0.22 · Dist 52w Low: 0.25 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-01 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.465 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.67 · Days To Cover: 15.97 · Ret 20d: 0.18 · Dist 52w Low: 0.20 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-06-30 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.481 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.67 · Days To Cover: 15.97 · Ret 20d: 0.12 · Dist 52w Low: 0.16 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-06-29 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.517 | 3 | decayed | 1-day return: -4.39% · 1-day return: -4.39% · Beta (60d): -0.41 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -4.52% |
| 2026-06-29 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.517 | 3 | decayed | 1-day return: -4.39% · 1-day return: -4.39% · Beta (60d): -0.41 · Sector return (1d): 0.24% · Sector return: 0.24% · Borrowed drop: -4.29% |
| 2026-06-29 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.496 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 10.67 · Days To Cover: 15.97 · Ret 20d: 0.11 · Dist 52w Low: 0.15 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.517 | 3 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.39% · 1-day return: -4.39% · Beta (60d): -0.41 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -4.52% |
| 2026-06-22 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.517 | 3 | new | 1-day return: -4.39% · 1-day return: -4.39% · Beta (60d): -0.41 · Sector return (1d): 0.24% · Sector return: 0.24% · Borrowed drop: -4.29% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.399 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.23% · 1-day return: -0.23% · Beta (60d): -0.46 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.23% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.486 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.23% · 1-day return: -0.23% · Beta (60d): -0.46 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.23% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.550 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.23% · 1-day return: -0.23% · Beta (60d): -0.46 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.23% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.323 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.78% · 1-day return: -0.78% · Beta (60d): -0.47 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.726 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.79% · 1-day return: -1.79% · Beta (60d): -0.44 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-16 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.307 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.71% · 1-day return: 0.71% · Beta (60d): -0.46 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-15 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.538 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.17% · 1-day return: -1.17% · Beta (60d): -0.43 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-14 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.132 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.29% · 1-day return: 0.29% · Beta (60d): -0.40 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |