DECK
Deckers Brands
Screener candidate detail · 2 active archetypes
Active
2
archetypes
History
29
rows
Days on list
1
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
4 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
A8 · PEAD Beat Driftpartialnew
score: 0.275confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-07-27
Triggers:quality:passeps_beat:partial (0.068 in [0.03,0.1))earnings_4d_ago
Dislocation:
Eps Surprise
0.07
Days Since Earnings
4.00
Recency Max
10.00
Primed Floor
0.10
Partial Floor
0.03
Direction Of Evidence
pead_beat_continuation
Honesty Caveat
PROVISIONAL. Validated in a single calm post-2022 regime only — no bear in-sample. rank-IC 5d +0.128 [+0.034,+0.216]; 10d +0.125. DISTINCT FROM A1 (A1 is contrarian gap-down recovery; A8 is continuation in the beat direction, no gap-down required). CONTEXT — never advice.
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
A2 · Oversold Sympathyprimednew
score: 0.133confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-07-23
Triggers:ret_1d -6.3%quality:passunexplained:idiosyncratic — real A2 (attribution_confidence=low; low confidence here = HIGH A2 conviction)no_own_news (weak flag — store coverage limited)borrowed_drop -1.34pp (unexplained)sector_explained 1.05×-4.7%=-4.9pp
Dislocation:
1-day return
-6.28%
1-day return
-6.28%
Beta (60d)
1.05
Sector return (1d)
-4.72%
Sector return
-4.72%
Borrowed drop
-1.34%
Own news
No
Newsless
Yes
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
A8 · PEAD Beat Driftlong recoveryactive
1 day
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recoveryactive
11 days
A3 · Positioning Extreme
4 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
13 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 2/4 directionally right · mean -3.7% · small sample, illustrative not proof
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-24 → open2 bars
+3.9%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-09 → 2026-07-102 bars
+2.4%closed
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
-11.7%closed
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-04 → 2026-06-083 bars
+1.3%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-04 → 2026-07-0119 bars
-6.8%dropped
1 episode could not be priced (missing OHLCV) and is omitted.
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | partial | 0.275 | 1 | new | Eps Surprise: 0.07 · Days Since Earnings: 4.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-23 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.133 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -6.28% · 1-day return: -6.28% · Beta (60d): 1.05 · Sector return (1d): -4.72% · Sector return: -4.72% · Borrowed drop: -1.34% |
| 2026-07-22 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.228 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: -3.71% · 1-day return: -3.71% · Beta (60d): 0.92 · Sector return (1d): -1.80% · Sector return: -1.80% · Borrowed drop: -2.06% |
| 2026-07-16 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | exited | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.36 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-07-15 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.228 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.71% · 1-day return: -3.71% · Beta (60d): 0.92 · Sector return (1d): -1.80% · Sector return: -1.80% · Borrowed drop: -2.06% |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.835 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: 1.90% · 1-day return: 1.90% · Beta (60d): 1.38 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.08% |
| 2026-07-08 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.228 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -3.71% · 1-day return: -3.71% · Beta (60d): 0.92 · Sector return (1d): -1.80% · Sector return: -1.80% · Borrowed drop: -2.06% |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.835 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: 1.90% · 1-day return: 1.90% · Beta (60d): 1.38 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.08% |
| 2026-07-06 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.829 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.19% · 1-day return: -3.19% · Beta (60d): 1.22 · Sector return (1d): 2.38% · Sector return: 2.38% · Borrowed drop: -6.08% |
| 2026-06-29 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.829 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.19% · 1-day return: -3.19% · Beta (60d): 1.22 · Sector return (1d): 2.38% · Sector return: 2.38% · Borrowed drop: -6.08% |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.835 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.90% · 1-day return: 1.90% · Beta (60d): 1.38 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.08% |
| 2026-06-25 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | decayed | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.36 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-06-23 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.083 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.85% · 1-day return: -1.85% · Beta (60d): 1.39 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.01 · Spy Ret Pct: -1.20% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.18% |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.418 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.30% · 1-day return: -3.30% · Beta (60d): 1.55 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -2.79% |
| 2026-06-22 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.418 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.30% · 1-day return: -3.30% · Beta (60d): 1.55 · Sector return (1d): -1.91% · Sector return: -1.91% · Borrowed drop: -0.34% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.847 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.16% · 1-day return: 3.16% · Beta (60d): 1.51 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 3.16% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.851 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.16% · 1-day return: 3.16% · Beta (60d): 1.51 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 3.16% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.857 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.16% · 1-day return: 3.16% · Beta (60d): 1.51 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 3.16% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.920 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.96% · 1-day return: 3.96% · Beta (60d): 1.50 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.493 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.12% · 1-day return: -4.12% · Beta (60d): 1.49 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.493 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.12% · 1-day return: -4.12% · Beta (60d): 1.49 · Sector return (1d): -2.54% · Sector return: -2.54% · Borrowed drop: -0.35% |
| 2026-06-16 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.737 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.09% · 1-day return: -2.09% · Beta (60d): 1.44 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-15 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.539 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.18% · 1-day return: -1.18% · Beta (60d): 1.49 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-14 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.221 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.47% · 1-day return: -0.47% · Beta (60d): 1.58 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-11 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.020 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.14% · 1-day return: -3.14% · Beta (60d): 1.76 · Sector return (1d): -0.73% · Sector return: -0.73% · Borrowed drop: -1.85% |
| 2026-06-04 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.020 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.14% · 1-day return: -3.14% · Beta (60d): 1.76 · Sector return (1d): -0.73% · Sector return: -0.73% · Borrowed drop: -1.85% |
| 2026-06-04 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.36 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-06-03 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.019 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.14% · 1-day return: -3.14% · Beta (60d): 1.76 · Sector return (1d): -0.73% · Sector return: -0.73% · Borrowed drop: -1.85% |
| 2026-06-03 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.019 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.09 · Dist 52w Low: 0.35 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |