CHDN
Churchill Downs Inc.
Screener candidate detail · 1 active archetype
Active
1
archetypes
History
53
rows
Days on list
1
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
5 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationpartialnew
score: 0.113confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-09-11
Triggers:regime:structural_deratefragility_gate:not_fragile (derate without structural confirm)
Dislocation:
Regime Tag
structural_derate
Fragile
No
Gate Abstained
No
Fragility Reasons
beta 0.19 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -11.9% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 54 < 60 (calm)
Fragility Legs Fired
1.00
Credit Amplified
No
Derate Depth Below 200d
0.12
Sma Dist 200
-0.12
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragilityactive
12 days
A2 · Oversold Sympathy
7 days
N3 · Failed Breakout
10 days
A3 · Positioning Extreme
12 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
12 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 1/5 directionally right · mean -1.9% · small sample, illustrative not proof
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-09-08 → open4 bars
-5.2%open · MTM
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-08-26 → open12 bars
+6.4%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-08-25 → 2026-08-262 bars
-2.4%dropped
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragility2026-07-13 → open44 bars
+3.8%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-08 → 2026-07-092 bars
-2.6%closed
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-29 → 2026-07-1411 bars
-8.7%closed
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-2910 bars
+4.4%closed
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-06-12 → 2026-06-248 bars
-0.2%closed
1 episode could not be priced (missing OHLCV) and is omitted.
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.416 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.62% · 1-day return: -3.62% · Beta (60d): 0.34 · Sector return (1d): -1.34% · Sector return: -1.34% · Borrowed drop: -3.17% |
| 2026-09-11 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.113 | 1 | new | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.19 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -11.9% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 54 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-09-10 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.001 | 1 | decayed | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.15 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -6.9% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 60 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-09-08 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.851 | 1 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.25 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-09-04 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.416 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -3.62% · 1-day return: -3.62% · Beta (60d): 0.34 · Sector return (1d): -1.34% · Sector return: -1.34% · Borrowed drop: -3.17% |
| 2026-08-31 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.445 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.25% · 1-day return: -3.25% · Beta (60d): 0.18 · Sector return (1d): 0.24% · Sector return: 0.24% · Borrowed drop: -3.30% |
| 2026-08-25 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.851 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.25 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-24 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.445 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -3.25% · 1-day return: -3.25% · Beta (60d): 0.18 · Sector return (1d): 0.24% · Sector return: 0.24% · Borrowed drop: -3.30% |
| 2026-08-21 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.386 | 1 | exited | Short Pct Float: 6.29 · Days To Cover: 5.31 · Ret 20d: -0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.03 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-13 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.001 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.15 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -6.9% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 60 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-08-12 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.001 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.14 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -6.9% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 63 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-08-11 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.07 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -6.7% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 64 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-08-10 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.016 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.09 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -9.1% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 62 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-08-07 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.003 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.08 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -7.6% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 64 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-08-06 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.008 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.06 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -8.6% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 63 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-08-05 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.012 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.06 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -9.1% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 64 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-08-04 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.026 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.05 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -10.3% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 64 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-08-03 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.080 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta -0.00 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -12.2% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 65 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-31 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.386 | 1 | decayed | Short Pct Float: 6.29 · Days To Cover: 5.31 · Ret 20d: -0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.03 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-31 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.050 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 0.01 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -11.4% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 66 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-21 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.423 | 2 | exited | 1-day return: -3.43% · 1-day return: -3.43% · Beta (60d): 0.30 · Sector return (1d): -0.53% · Sector return: -0.53% · Borrowed drop: -3.27% |
| 2026-07-20 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.537 | 1 | exited | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.26 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-14 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.423 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.43% · 1-day return: -3.43% · Beta (60d): 0.30 · Sector return (1d): -0.53% · Sector return: -0.53% · Borrowed drop: -3.27% |
| 2026-07-10 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.386 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.29 · Days To Cover: 5.31 · Ret 20d: -0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.03 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-09 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.035 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: -0.27% · 1-day return: -0.27% · Beta (60d): 0.53 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.37% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.07% |
| 2026-07-09 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.397 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.29 · Days To Cover: 5.31 · Ret 20d: -0.03 · Dist 52w Low: 0.04 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-08 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.408 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.29 · Days To Cover: 5.31 · Ret 20d: -0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.03 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-07 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.423 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -3.43% · 1-day return: -3.43% · Beta (60d): 0.30 · Sector return (1d): -0.53% · Sector return: -0.53% · Borrowed drop: -3.27% |
| 2026-07-07 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.423 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.29 · Days To Cover: 5.31 · Ret 20d: -0.01 · Dist 52w Low: 0.04 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-06 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.537 | 1 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.26 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-06 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.435 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.29 · Days To Cover: 5.31 · Ret 20d: 0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.07 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-02 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.035 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -0.27% · 1-day return: -0.27% · Beta (60d): 0.53 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.37% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.07% |
| 2026-07-02 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.448 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.29 · Days To Cover: 5.31 · Ret 20d: 0.06 · Dist 52w Low: 0.09 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-01 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.465 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.29 · Days To Cover: 5.31 · Ret 20d: 0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.07 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-06-30 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.481 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.29 · Days To Cover: 5.31 · Ret 20d: -0.00 · Dist 52w Low: 0.08 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-06-29 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.496 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.29 · Days To Cover: 5.31 · Ret 20d: 0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.09 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-06-28 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.516 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.29 · Days To Cover: 5.31 · Ret 20d: 0.01 · Dist 52w Low: 0.07 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-06-25 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.035 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.27% · 1-day return: -0.27% · Beta (60d): 0.53 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.37% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.07% |
| 2026-06-24 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.711 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.00% · 1-day return: -2.00% · Beta (60d): 0.51 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.36% · Beta Residual Pct: -2.19% |
| 2026-06-22 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.537 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.26 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.684 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.20% · 1-day return: -2.20% · Beta (60d): 0.56 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -2.01% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.250 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.58% · 1-day return: 0.58% · Beta (60d): 0.55 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 0.58% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.250 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.58% · 1-day return: 0.58% · Beta (60d): 0.55 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 0.58% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.249 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.58% · 1-day return: 0.58% · Beta (60d): 0.55 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 0.58% |
| 2026-06-18 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.044 | 2 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.25 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.044 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.13% · 1-day return: -0.13% · Beta (60d): 0.55 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.824 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.36% · 1-day return: -2.36% · Beta (60d): 0.53 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-16 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.823 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.68% · 1-day return: -2.68% · Beta (60d): 0.49 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-15 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.981 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 5.98% · 1-day return: 5.98% · Beta (60d): 0.58 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-14 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.167 | 2 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.26 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-13 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.259 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.26 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-12 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.283 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.26 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-11 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.902 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.26 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |