CG
The Carlyle Group
Screener candidate detail · 3 active archetypes
Active
3
archetypes
History
60
rows
Days on list
1
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
8 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
A2 · Oversold Sympathyprimednew
score: 0.479confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-09-09
Triggers:ret_1d -4.1%quality:passunexplained:idiosyncratic — real A2 (attribution_confidence=low; low confidence here = HIGH A2 conviction)no_own_news (weak flag — store coverage limited)borrowed_drop -3.38pp (unexplained)sector_explained 1.69×-0.4%=-0.7pp
Dislocation:
1-day return
-4.09%
1-day return
-4.09%
Beta (60d)
1.69
Sector return (1d)
-0.42%
Sector return
-0.42%
Borrowed drop
-3.38%
Own news
No
Newsless
Yes
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationpartialnew
score: 0.214confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-09-11
Triggers:regime:structural_deratefragility_gate:not_fragile (derate without structural confirm)
Dislocation:
Regime Tag
structural_derate
Fragile
No
Gate Abstained
No
Fragility Reasons
beta 1.81 >= 1.30 (high),sma_dist_200 -13.9% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 24 < 60 (calm)
Fragility Legs Fired
2.00
Credit Amplified
No
Derate Depth Below 200d
0.14
Sma Dist 200
-0.14
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
A3 · Positioning Extremepartialpersisting
score: 0.214confluence: 1days: 50as of 2026-09-11
Triggers:short_pct 6.8% (below 15% floor)days_to_cover 5.40 (extreme)ret_20d -16.9% (falling)dist_52w_low +7.2% (above lows)price_holding:not_confirmedprice_resilient:not_confirmed (needs ret_20d >= +5% for primed)skew:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design)quality:pass
Dislocation:
Short Pct Float
6.76
Days To Cover
5.40
Ret 20d
-0.17
Dist 52w Low
0.07
Short Extreme
Yes
Short Pct Extreme
No
Days To Cover Extreme
Yes
Price Holding
No
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragilityactive
8 days
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recoveryactive
10 days
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recoveryactive
10 days
A8 · PEAD Beat Drift
7 days
P1 · Pair Divergence
3 days
N3 · Failed Breakout
10 days
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling
2 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
10 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 7/12 directionally right · mean -0.9%
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-09-10 → open2 bars
-2.4%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-09-02 → open7 bars
-7.5%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-08-17 → 2026-08-182 bars
-0.2%closed
P1 · Pair Divergencelong recovery2026-08-12 → open22 bars
-10.5%open · MTM
A8 · PEAD Beat Driftlong recovery2026-08-11 → 2026-08-186 bars
+1.6%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-30 → 2026-07-312 bars
+0.5%closed
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-07-30 → 2026-08-033 bars
-1.1%closed
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-07-27 → open34 bars
-9.7%open · MTM
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilinglong recovery2026-07-24 → 2026-07-283 bars
+1.5%dropped
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-07-08 → 2026-07-103 bars
-2.5%dropped
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-25 → 2026-06-262 bars
+0.8%closed
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragility2026-06-22 → 2026-07-0711 bars
+1.2%closed
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-22 → 2026-06-296 bars
-6.1%dropped
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
-11.8%closed
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-06-10 → 2026-06-239 bars
+1.2%dropped
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-04 → 2026-06-052 bars
+3.5%closed
1 episode could not be priced (missing OHLCV) and is omitted.
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.538 | 3 | exited | Eps Surprise: 0.18 · Days Since Earnings: 9.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-09-11 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.214 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.76 · Days To Cover: 5.40 · Ret 20d: -0.17 · Dist 52w Low: 0.07 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-09-11 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.214 | 1 | new | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.81 >= 1.30 (high),sma_dist_200 -13.9% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 24 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-09-09 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.479 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -4.09% · 1-day return: -4.09% · Beta (60d): 1.69 · Sector return (1d): -0.42% · Sector return: -0.42% · Borrowed drop: -3.38% |
| 2026-09-08 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.314 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.90% · 1-day return: -3.90% · Beta (60d): 1.30 · Sector return (1d): -0.89% · Sector return: -0.89% · Borrowed drop: -2.75% |
| 2026-09-01 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.314 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -3.90% · 1-day return: -3.90% · Beta (60d): 1.30 · Sector return (1d): -0.89% · Sector return: -0.89% · Borrowed drop: -2.75% |
| 2026-09-01 | P1 · Pair Divergence | partial | 0.298 | 1 | decayed | Pair Twin: KKR · Pair Correlation: 0.76 · Pair Spread Z: 2.52 · Pair Direction: short_fragility · Pair State: partial · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-08-28 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.538 | 3 | exited | 1-day return: -4.23% · 1-day return: -4.23% · Beta (60d): 1.21 · Sector return (1d): -0.17% · Sector return: -0.17% · Borrowed drop: -4.02% |
| 2026-08-28 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.538 | 3 | decayed | Eps Surprise: 0.18 · Days Since Earnings: 9.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-08-27 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.339 | 1 | exited | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.35 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-27 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.419 | 1 | exited | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.17 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -19.2% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 75 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-08-25 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.294 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.33 · Days To Cover: 6.20 · Ret 20d: 0.06 · Dist 52w Low: 0.22 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-24 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.294 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.33 · Days To Cover: 6.20 · Ret 20d: 0.07 · Dist 52w Low: 0.22 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-21 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.538 | 3 | decayed | 1-day return: -4.23% · 1-day return: -4.23% · Beta (60d): 1.21 · Sector return (1d): -0.17% · Sector return: -0.17% · Borrowed drop: -4.02% |
| 2026-08-21 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.294 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.33 · Days To Cover: 6.20 · Ret 20d: 0.09 · Dist 52w Low: 0.23 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-21 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | decayed | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 17.13 · Inside Day: Yes · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-08-20 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.294 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.33 · Days To Cover: 6.20 · Ret 20d: 0.09 · Dist 52w Low: 0.19 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-19 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.295 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.33 · Days To Cover: 6.20 · Ret 20d: 0.11 · Dist 52w Low: 0.23 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-18 | P1 · Pair Divergence | partial | 0.298 | 1 | persisting | Pair Twin: KKR · Pair Correlation: 0.76 · Pair Spread Z: 2.52 · Pair Direction: short_fragility · Pair State: partial · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-08-18 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.296 | 0 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.33 · Days To Cover: 6.20 · Ret 20d: 0.06 · Dist 52w Low: 0.20 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-17 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.298 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.33 · Days To Cover: 6.20 · Ret 20d: 0.08 · Dist 52w Low: 0.20 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-14 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.538 | 3 | new | 1-day return: -4.23% · 1-day return: -4.23% · Beta (60d): 1.21 · Sector return (1d): -0.17% · Sector return: -0.17% · Borrowed drop: -4.02% |
| 2026-08-14 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.538 | 3 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.18 · Days Since Earnings: 9.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-08-14 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.538 | 3 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.33 · Days To Cover: 6.20 · Ret 20d: 0.07 · Dist 52w Low: 0.22 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-13 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.339 | 1 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.35 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-08-13 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.497 | 2 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.18 · Days Since Earnings: 8.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-08-13 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.497 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.33 · Days To Cover: 6.20 · Ret 20d: 0.10 · Dist 52w Low: 0.27 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-08-12 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.292 | 2 | exited | 1-day return: -3.88% · 1-day return: -3.88% · Beta (60d): 1.03 · Sector return (1d): -1.61% · Sector return: -1.61% · Borrowed drop: -2.22% |
| 2026-08-12 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.498 | 2 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.18 · Days Since Earnings: 7.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-08-11 | P1 · Pair Divergence | primed | 0.619 | 3 | new | Pair Twin: KKR · Pair Correlation: 0.77 · Pair Spread Z: -3.45 · Pair Direction: long_recovery · Pair State: primed · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-08-11 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.619 | 3 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.18 · Days Since Earnings: 6.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-08-10 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.501 | 2 | new | Eps Surprise: 0.18 · Days Since Earnings: 5.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-08-05 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.292 | 2 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.88% · 1-day return: -3.88% · Beta (60d): 1.03 · Sector return (1d): -1.61% · Sector return: -1.61% · Borrowed drop: -2.22% |
| 2026-07-30 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.339 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.35 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-30 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.419 | 1 | decayed | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.17 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -19.2% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 75 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-29 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.292 | 2 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-29 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.292 | 2 | new | 1-day return: -3.88% · 1-day return: -3.88% · Beta (60d): 1.03 · Sector return (1d): -1.61% · Sector return: -1.61% · Borrowed drop: -2.22% |
| 2026-07-24 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | new | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 17.13 · Inside Day: Yes · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-07-22 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.821 | 1 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.37 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.465 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: -1.20% · 1-day return: -1.20% · Beta (60d): 1.23 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.20% |
| 2026-07-08 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.821 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.37 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-08 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.507 | 3 | exited | 1-day return: -4.41% · 1-day return: -4.41% · Beta (60d): 1.27 · Sector return (1d): -0.30% · Sector return: -0.30% · Borrowed drop: -4.03% |
| 2026-07-07 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.164 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.35 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-06 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.686 | 2 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.465 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -1.20% · 1-day return: -1.20% · Beta (60d): 1.23 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.20% |
| 2026-07-02 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.419 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.17 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -19.2% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 75 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-28 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.465 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.20% · 1-day return: -1.20% · Beta (60d): 1.23 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.20% |
| 2026-06-27 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.451 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.20% · 1-day return: -1.20% · Beta (60d): 1.23 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.04% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.15% |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.962 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.20% · 1-day return: -1.20% · Beta (60d): 1.23 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -5.64% |
| 2026-06-24 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.507 | 3 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.41% · 1-day return: -4.41% · Beta (60d): 1.27 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.36% · Beta Residual Pct: -4.87% |
| 2026-06-24 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.416 | 2 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.24 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -22.3% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 66 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-23 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.367 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.80% · 1-day return: -3.80% · Beta (60d): 1.24 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.01 · Spy Ret Pct: -1.20% · Beta Residual Pct: -2.30% |
| 2026-06-23 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.367 | 2 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.24 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -20.2% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 60 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.356 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.51% · 1-day return: -0.51% · Beta (60d): 1.12 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.15% |
| 2026-06-22 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.356 | 2 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.12 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -17.3% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 40 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-21 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.686 | 2 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.686 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.97% · 1-day return: -1.97% · Beta (60d): 1.11 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.97% |
| 2026-06-21 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.686 | 2 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.11 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -17.0% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 40 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-20 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.776 | 2 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.776 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.97% · 1-day return: -1.97% · Beta (60d): 1.11 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.97% |