CG
Carlyle Group (The)
Screener candidate detail · 3 active archetypes
Active
3
archetypes
History
41
rows
Days on list
13
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
6 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationpartialpersisting
score: 0.419confluence: 1days: 13as of 2026-07-02
Triggers:regime:structural_deratefragility_gate:not_fragile (derate without structural confirm)
Dislocation:
Regime Tag
structural_derate
Fragile
No
Gate Abstained
No
Fragility Reasons
beta 1.17 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -19.2% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 75 >= 60 (elevated)
Fragility Legs Fired
2.00
Credit Amplified
No
Derate Depth Below 200d
0.19
Sma Dist 200
-0.19
A3 · Positioning Extremepartialpersisting
score: 0.353confluence: 1days: 4as of 2026-07-27
Triggers:short_pct 6.1% (below 15% floor)days_to_cover 6.36 (extreme)ret_20d +11.1% (holding)dist_52w_low +14.2% (above lows)price_holding:confirmedskew:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design)quality:pass
Dislocation:
Short Pct Float
6.12
Days To Cover
6.36
Ret 20d
0.11
Dist 52w Low
0.14
Short Extreme
Yes
Short Pct Extreme
No
Days To Cover Extreme
Yes
Price Holding
Yes
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilingpartialnew
score: 0.000confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-07-24
Triggers:rvol_pctile 17.1 (tight ≤20)quality:passinside_day: confirmedNR7: confirmedcatalyst: no upcoming date foundNOTE: vol setup — resolves both ways (not directional)iv_pctile:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design; score = rvol×proximity only)
Dislocation:
Realized Vol Pct 1y
17.13
Inside Day
Yes
Nr7
Yes
Days To Catalyst
—
Proximity Factor
0.00
Iv Pctile
—
Options Legs Enabled
Yes
Gate pass
Yes
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recoveryactive
10 days
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilinglong recoveryactive
1 day
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragilityactive
6 days
N3 · Failed Breakout
8 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
10 days
A2 · Oversold Sympathy
6 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 4/6 directionally right · mean -1.9% · small sample, illustrative not proof
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilinglong recovery2026-07-24 → open2 bars
+1.9%open · MTM
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-07-08 → open14 bars
-7.5%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-25 → 2026-06-262 bars
+0.8%closed
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragility2026-06-22 → 2026-07-0711 bars
+1.2%dropped
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-22 → 2026-06-296 bars
-6.1%dropped
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
-11.8%closed
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-06-10 → 2026-06-239 bars
+1.2%dropped
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-04 → 2026-06-052 bars
+3.5%closed
1 episode could not be priced (missing OHLCV) and is omitted.
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.353 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 6.12 · Days To Cover: 6.36 · Ret 20d: 0.11 · Dist 52w Low: 0.14 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-24 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.363 | 1 | new | Short Pct Float: 6.12 · Days To Cover: 6.36 · Ret 20d: 0.08 · Dist 52w Low: 0.12 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-24 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | new | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 17.13 · Inside Day: Yes · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-07-22 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.821 | 1 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.37 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-16 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | decayed | Short Pct Float: 5.93 · Days To Cover: 5.01 · Ret 20d: -0.07 · Dist 52w Low: 0.04 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.465 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: -1.20% · 1-day return: -1.20% · Beta (60d): 1.23 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.20% |
| 2026-07-08 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.821 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.37 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-08 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.507 | 3 | exited | 1-day return: -4.41% · 1-day return: -4.41% · Beta (60d): 1.27 · Sector return (1d): -0.30% · Sector return: -0.30% · Borrowed drop: -4.03% |
| 2026-07-07 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.164 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.35 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-06 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.686 | 2 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.465 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -1.20% · 1-day return: -1.20% · Beta (60d): 1.23 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.20% |
| 2026-07-02 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.419 | 1 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.17 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -19.2% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 75 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-01 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.507 | 3 | decayed | 1-day return: -4.41% · 1-day return: -4.41% · Beta (60d): 1.27 · Sector return (1d): -0.30% · Sector return: -0.30% · Borrowed drop: -4.03% |
| 2026-06-28 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.465 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.20% · 1-day return: -1.20% · Beta (60d): 1.23 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.20% |
| 2026-06-27 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.451 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.20% · 1-day return: -1.20% · Beta (60d): 1.23 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.04% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.15% |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.962 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.20% · 1-day return: -1.20% · Beta (60d): 1.23 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -5.64% |
| 2026-06-25 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 5.93 · Days To Cover: 5.01 · Ret 20d: -0.07 · Dist 52w Low: 0.04 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-06-24 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.507 | 3 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.41% · 1-day return: -4.41% · Beta (60d): 1.27 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.36% · Beta Residual Pct: -4.87% |
| 2026-06-24 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.507 | 3 | new | 1-day return: -4.41% · 1-day return: -4.41% · Beta (60d): 1.27 · Sector return (1d): -0.30% · Sector return: -0.30% · Borrowed drop: -4.03% |
| 2026-06-24 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.507 | 3 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 5.93 · Days To Cover: 5.01 · Ret 20d: -0.11 · Dist 52w Low: 0.00 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-06-24 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.416 | 2 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.24 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -22.3% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 66 >= 60 (elevated) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-23 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.367 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.80% · 1-day return: -3.80% · Beta (60d): 1.24 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.01 · Spy Ret Pct: -1.20% · Beta Residual Pct: -2.30% |
| 2026-06-23 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.367 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 5.93 · Days To Cover: 5.01 · Ret 20d: -0.06 · Dist 52w Low: 0.02 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-06-23 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.367 | 2 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.24 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -20.2% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 60 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.356 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.51% · 1-day return: -0.51% · Beta (60d): 1.12 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.15% |
| 2026-06-22 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.356 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 5.93 · Days To Cover: 5.01 · Ret 20d: -0.01 · Dist 52w Low: 0.06 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-06-22 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.356 | 2 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.12 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -17.3% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 40 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-21 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.686 | 2 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.686 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.97% · 1-day return: -1.97% · Beta (60d): 1.11 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.97% |
| 2026-06-21 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.686 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 5.93 · Days To Cover: 5.01 · Ret 20d: -0.01 · Dist 52w Low: 0.06 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-06-21 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.686 | 2 | persisting | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.11 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -17.0% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 40 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-20 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.776 | 2 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.776 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.97% · 1-day return: -1.97% · Beta (60d): 1.11 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.97% |
| 2026-06-20 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.776 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: 5.93 · Days To Cover: 5.01 · Ret 20d: -0.01 · Dist 52w Low: 0.06 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-06-20 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.776 | 2 | new | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 1.11 < 1.30 (not high-beta),sma_dist_200 -17.0% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 40 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 1.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-06-19 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.874 | 3 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: -0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-19 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.874 | 3 | new | Short Pct Float: — · Days To Cover: 5.01 · Ret 20d: -0.01 · Dist 52w Low: 0.06 · Short Extreme: Yes · Short Pct Extreme: No |
| 2026-06-17 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.392 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: -5.19% · 1-day return: -5.19% · Beta (60d): 1.41 · Sector return (1d): -1.15% · Sector return: -1.15% · Borrowed drop: -3.56% |
| 2026-06-10 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.026 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.34 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-10 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.392 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -5.19% · 1-day return: -5.19% · Beta (60d): 1.41 · Sector return (1d): -1.15% · Sector return: -1.15% · Borrowed drop: -3.56% |
| 2026-06-03 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.392 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -5.19% · 1-day return: -5.19% · Beta (60d): 1.41 · Sector return (1d): -1.15% · Sector return: -1.15% · Borrowed drop: -3.56% |