CCL
Carnival Corporation
Screener candidate detail · 2 active archetypes
Active
2
archetypes
History
32
rows
Days on list
1
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
7 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationpartialnew
score: 0.007confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-07-23
Triggers:regime:structural_deratefragility_gate:not_fragile (derate without structural confirm)
Dislocation:
Regime Tag
structural_derate
Fragile
No
Gate Abstained
No
Fragility Reasons
beta 2.15 >= 1.30 (high),sma_dist_200 -9.1% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 19 < 60 (calm)
Fragility Legs Fired
2.00
Credit Amplified
No
Derate Depth Below 200d
0.09
Sma Dist 200
-0.09
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilingpartialnew
score: 0.000confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-07-22
Triggers:rvol_pctile 16.3 (tight ≤20)quality:passNR7: confirmedcatalyst: no upcoming date foundNOTE: vol setup — resolves both ways (not directional)iv_pctile:no_options_data (co_options_daily absent — sparse by design; score = rvol×proximity only)
Dislocation:
Realized Vol Pct 1y
16.33
Inside Day
No
Nr7
Yes
Days To Catalyst
—
Proximity Factor
0.00
Iv Pctile
—
Options Legs Enabled
Yes
Gate pass
Yes
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragilityactive
1 day
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilinglong recoveryactive
1 day
A2 · Oversold Sympathy
8 days
P1 · Pair Divergence
3 days
A8 · PEAD Beat Drift
5 days
A3 · Positioning Extreme
4 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
10 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 4/6 directionally right · mean +1.4% · small sample, illustrative not proof
N4 · Structural-Derate Continuationshort fragility2026-07-24 → open2 bars
-5.7%open · MTM
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilinglong recovery2026-07-22 → open4 bars
+4.8%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-08 → 2026-07-103 bars
+1.6%closed
A8 · PEAD Beat Driftlong recovery2026-06-30 → 2026-07-075 bars
-5.5%dropped
P1 · Pair Divergencelong recovery2026-06-24 → 2026-06-252 bars
+0.7%closed
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
-3.9%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-11 → 2026-06-2510 bars
+15.1%dropped
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-04 → 2026-06-083 bars
+0.4%closed
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | N4 · Structural-Derate Continuation | partial | 0.007 | 1 | new | Regime Tag: structural_derate · Fragile: No · Gate Abstained: No · Fragility Reasons: beta 2.15 >= 1.30 (high),sma_dist_200 -9.1% (downtrend),fundamentals:unavailable,realized_vol_pct_1y 19 < 60 (calm) · Fragility Legs Fired: 2.00 · Credit Amplified: No |
| 2026-07-22 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.012 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: -3.98% · 1-day return: -3.98% · Beta (60d): 2.28 · Sector return (1d): -1.80% · Sector return: -1.80% · Borrowed drop: 0.11% |
| 2026-07-22 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | new | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 16.33 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-07-21 | P1 · Pair Divergence | primed | 0.586 | 3 | exited | Pair Twin: NCLH · Pair Correlation: 0.82 · Pair Spread Z: -3.54 · Pair Direction: long_recovery · Pair State: primed · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-07-16 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.536 | 1 | decayed | Eps Surprise: 0.21 · Days Since Earnings: 9.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-16 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | exited | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.26 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-07-15 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.012 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.98% · 1-day return: -3.98% · Beta (60d): 2.28 · Sector return (1d): -1.80% · Sector return: -1.80% · Borrowed drop: 0.11% |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.988 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: 2.12% · 1-day return: 2.12% · Beta (60d): 2.70 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -7.61% |
| 2026-07-08 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.012 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.98% · 1-day return: -3.98% · Beta (60d): 2.28 · Sector return (1d): -1.80% · Sector return: -1.80% · Borrowed drop: 0.11% |
| 2026-07-07 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.207 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -3.06% · 1-day return: -3.06% · Beta (60d): 2.24 · Sector return (1d): -0.53% · Sector return: -0.53% · Borrowed drop: -1.88% |
| 2026-07-07 | P1 · Pair Divergence | primed | 0.586 | 3 | decayed | Pair Twin: NCLH · Pair Correlation: 0.82 · Pair Spread Z: -3.54 · Pair Direction: long_recovery · Pair State: primed · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.988 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: 2.12% · 1-day return: 2.12% · Beta (60d): 2.70 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -7.61% |
| 2026-07-02 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.536 | 1 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.21 · Days Since Earnings: 9.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-01 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.500 | 1 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.21 · Days Since Earnings: 8.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-06-30 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.586 | 3 | decayed | 1-day return: -4.99% · 1-day return: -4.99% · Beta (60d): 2.78 · Sector return (1d): -1.03% · Sector return: -1.03% · Borrowed drop: -2.13% |
| 2026-06-30 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.500 | 1 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.21 · Days Since Earnings: 7.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-06-29 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.500 | 1 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 0.21 · Days Since Earnings: 6.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.988 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 2.12% · 1-day return: 2.12% · Beta (60d): 2.70 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -7.61% |
| 2026-06-25 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | decayed | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.26 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-06-24 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.168 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.66% · 1-day return: 0.66% · Beta (60d): 2.80 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.36% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.36% |
| 2026-06-23 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.586 | 3 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.99% · 1-day return: -4.99% · Beta (60d): 2.78 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.01 · Spy Ret Pct: -1.20% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.66% |
| 2026-06-23 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.586 | 3 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.99% · 1-day return: -4.99% · Beta (60d): 2.78 · Sector return (1d): -1.03% · Sector return: -1.03% · Borrowed drop: -2.13% |
| 2026-06-23 | P1 · Pair Divergence | primed | 0.586 | 3 | new | Pair Twin: NCLH · Pair Correlation: 0.82 · Pair Spread Z: -3.54 · Pair Direction: long_recovery · Pair State: primed · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.529 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.23% · 1-day return: -2.23% · Beta (60d): 2.63 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.37% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.847 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.16% · 1-day return: 3.16% · Beta (60d): 2.62 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 3.16% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.851 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.16% · 1-day return: 3.16% · Beta (60d): 2.62 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 3.16% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.857 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.16% · 1-day return: 3.16% · Beta (60d): 2.62 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 3.16% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.881 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.39% · 1-day return: 3.39% · Beta (60d): 2.62 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.674 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.26% · 1-day return: -3.26% · Beta (60d): 2.59 · Sector return (1d): -2.54% · Sector return: -2.54% · Borrowed drop: 3.33% |
| 2026-06-10 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.076 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -6.48% · 1-day return: -6.48% · Beta (60d): 2.56 · Sector return (1d): -2.08% · Sector return: -2.08% · Borrowed drop: -1.16% |
| 2026-06-04 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.26 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-06-03 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.06 · Dist 52w Low: 0.23 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |