AON
Aon plc
Screener candidate detail · 2 active archetypes
Active
2
archetypes
History
22
rows
Days on list
1
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
4 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
P1 · Pair Divergencepartialnew
score: 0.691confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-07-21
Triggers:quality:passtwin:MRSHcorrelation:0.81spread_z:-2.64laggard:cheap_laggard → long_recovery
Dislocation:
Pair Twin
MRSH
Pair Correlation
0.81
Pair Spread Z
-2.64
Pair Direction
long_recovery
Pair State
partial
Gate pass
Yes
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
N3 · Failed Breakoutprimednew
score: 0.442confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-07-17
Triggers:quality:passrecent_breakout_above:52w_highfailure_bar:-0.4%failure_vol:weak:0.67sustained_below
Dislocation:
Breakout Level
52w_high
Dist 52w High
-0.02
Sma Dist 20
0.07
Recent Push
Yes
Below Level
Yes
Failure Bar
Yes
Sustained Below
Yes
1-day return
-0.39%
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
P1 · Pair Divergencelong recoveryactive
3 days
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragilityactive
4 days
A3 · Positioning Extreme
4 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
11 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 2/4 directionally right · mean -0.5% · small sample, illustrative not proof
P1 · Pair Divergencelong recovery2026-07-21 → open5 bars
+3.3%open · MTM
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-07-20 → 2026-07-212 bars
+2.4%dropped
P1 · Pair Divergenceshort fragility2026-07-07 → open15 bars
-2.9%open · MTM
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-06-30 → 2026-07-023 bars
-6.0%dropped
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-247 bars
-2.1%closed
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-04 → 2026-06-083 bars
+3.4%closed
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | P1 · Pair Divergence | partial | 0.691 | 1 | new | Pair Twin: MRSH · Pair Correlation: 0.81 · Pair Spread Z: -2.64 · Pair Direction: long_recovery · Pair State: partial · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-07-20 | P1 · Pair Divergence | partial | 0.000 | 1 | decayed | Pair Twin: MRSH · Pair Correlation: 0.81 · Pair Spread Z: 2.01 · Pair Direction: short_fragility · Pair State: partial · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-07-17 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.442 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: 52w_high · Dist 52w High: -0.02 · Sma Dist 20: 0.07 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-16 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | exited | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.04 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-07-14 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.158 | 1 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.13 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.532 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: -1.30% · 1-day return: -1.30% · Beta (60d): -0.23 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.38% |
| 2026-07-06 | P1 · Pair Divergence | partial | 0.000 | 1 | new | Pair Twin: MRSH · Pair Correlation: 0.81 · Pair Spread Z: 2.01 · Pair Direction: short_fragility · Pair State: partial · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-06-30 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.158 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.13 · Sma Dist 20: 0.00 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-29 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.413 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.12 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-29 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.532 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -1.30% · 1-day return: -1.30% · Beta (60d): -0.23 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.38% |
| 2026-06-25 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | decayed | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.04 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.532 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.30% · 1-day return: -1.30% · Beta (60d): -0.23 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.38% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.798 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.78% · 1-day return: -2.78% · Beta (60d): -0.25 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -2.78% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.809 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.78% · 1-day return: -2.78% · Beta (60d): -0.25 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -2.78% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.817 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.78% · 1-day return: -2.78% · Beta (60d): -0.25 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -2.78% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.674 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.88% · 1-day return: -1.88% · Beta (60d): -0.22 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.633 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.45% · 1-day return: -1.45% · Beta (60d): -0.21 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-16 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.260 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.59% · 1-day return: 0.59% · Beta (60d): -0.26 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-15 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.709 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.74% · 1-day return: -1.74% · Beta (60d): -0.32 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-14 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.024 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.04% · 1-day return: 0.04% · Beta (60d): -0.28 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-04 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.04 · Dist 52w Low: 0.04 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-06-03 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.00 · Dist 52w Low: 0.02 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |