ALK
Alaska Air Group
Screener candidate detail · 2 active archetypes
Active
2
archetypes
History
29
rows
Days on list
1
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
4 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
P1 · Pair Divergencepartialnew
score: 0.688confluence: 2days: 1as of 2026-07-22
Triggers:quality:passtwin:UALcorrelation:0.79spread_z:-2.36laggard:cheap_laggard → long_recovery
Dislocation:
Pair Twin
UAL
Pair Correlation
0.79
Pair Spread Z
-2.36
Pair Direction
long_recovery
Pair State
partial
Gate pass
Yes
Analyst
[object Object]
Quality
[object Object]
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
A2 · Oversold Sympathypartialpersisting
score: 0.942confluence: 1days: 16as of 2026-07-23
Triggers:ret_1d -3.7%quality:passdemoted:partial explained by recent_earnings (attribution_confidence=high)no_own_news (weak flag — store coverage limited)borrowed_drop -7.70pp (unexplained)sector_explained 2.13×+1.9%=+4.0pp
Dislocation:
1-day return
-3.72%
1-day return
-3.72%
Beta (60d)
2.13
Sector return (1d)
1.87%
Sector return
1.87%
Borrowed drop
-7.70%
Own news
No
Newsless
Yes
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recoveryactive
12 days
P1 · Pair Divergencelong recoveryactive
1 day
A3 · Positioning Extreme
4 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
12 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 4/4 directionally right · mean +5.1% · small sample, illustrative not proof
P1 · Pair Divergencelong recovery2026-07-22 → open4 bars
+8.0%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-09 → open13 bars
+0.5%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-30 → 2026-07-012 bars
+2.2%dropped
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
+4.5%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-04 → 2026-06-127 bars
+12.2%closed
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-04 → 2026-06-083 bars
+1.5%closed
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.942 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.72% · 1-day return: -3.72% · Beta (60d): 2.13 · Sector return (1d): 1.87% · Sector return: 1.87% · Borrowed drop: -7.70% |
| 2026-07-22 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.688 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -5.45% · 1-day return: -5.45% · Beta (60d): 2.10 · Sector return (1d): 0.24% · Sector return: 0.24% · Borrowed drop: -5.95% |
| 2026-07-22 | P1 · Pair Divergence | partial | 0.688 | 2 | new | Pair Twin: UAL · Pair Correlation: 0.79 · Pair Spread Z: -2.36 · Pair Direction: long_recovery · Pair State: partial · Gate pass: Yes |
| 2026-07-17 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.547 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.53% · 1-day return: -4.53% · Beta (60d): 2.02 · Sector return (1d): -0.41% · Sector return: -0.41% · Borrowed drop: -3.70% |
| 2026-07-16 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | exited | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.05 · Dist 52w Low: 0.24 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.989 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: 1.06% · 1-day return: 1.06% · Beta (60d): 2.55 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -8.10% |
| 2026-07-13 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.497 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -5.45% · 1-day return: -5.45% · Beta (60d): 2.24 · Sector return (1d): -0.86% · Sector return: -0.86% · Borrowed drop: -3.53% |
| 2026-07-08 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.090 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -3.23% · 1-day return: -3.23% · Beta (60d): 2.17 · Sector return (1d): -1.08% · Sector return: -1.08% · Borrowed drop: -0.89% |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.989 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: 1.06% · 1-day return: 1.06% · Beta (60d): 2.55 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -8.10% |
| 2026-07-06 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.793 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.65% · 1-day return: -3.65% · Beta (60d): 2.29 · Sector return (1d): 0.86% · Sector return: 0.86% · Borrowed drop: -5.62% |
| 2026-06-29 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.793 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -3.65% · 1-day return: -3.65% · Beta (60d): 2.29 · Sector return (1d): 0.86% · Sector return: 0.86% · Borrowed drop: -5.62% |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.989 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.06% · 1-day return: 1.06% · Beta (60d): 2.55 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -8.10% |
| 2026-06-25 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | decayed | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.05 · Dist 52w Low: 0.24 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-06-24 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.069 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: -7.95% · 1-day return: -7.95% · Beta (60d): 2.64 · Sector return (1d): -3.44% · Sector return: -3.44% · Borrowed drop: 1.12% |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.015 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.94% · 1-day return: -0.94% · Beta (60d): 2.77 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -0.03% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.686 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 2.03% · 1-day return: 2.03% · Beta (60d): 2.78 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 2.03% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.691 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 2.03% · 1-day return: 2.03% · Beta (60d): 2.78 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 2.03% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.698 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 2.03% · 1-day return: 2.03% · Beta (60d): 2.78 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 2.03% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.877 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.34% · 1-day return: 3.34% · Beta (60d): 2.80 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.710 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.73% · 1-day return: -1.73% · Beta (60d): 2.78 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.069 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -7.95% · 1-day return: -7.95% · Beta (60d): 2.64 · Sector return (1d): -3.44% · Sector return: -3.44% · Borrowed drop: 1.12% |
| 2026-06-16 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.031 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 0.06% · 1-day return: 0.06% · Beta (60d): 2.87 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-15 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.916 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.65% · 1-day return: 3.65% · Beta (60d): 2.85 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-14 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.634 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.40% · 1-day return: 1.40% · Beta (60d): 2.87 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-10 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.069 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -7.95% · 1-day return: -7.95% · Beta (60d): 2.64 · Sector return (1d): -3.44% · Sector return: -3.44% · Borrowed drop: 1.12% |
| 2026-06-04 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.324 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.76% · 1-day return: -4.76% · Beta (60d): 3.11 · Sector return (1d): -0.08% · Sector return: -0.08% · Borrowed drop: -4.51% |
| 2026-06-04 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.05 · Dist 52w Low: 0.24 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-06-03 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.326 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.76% · 1-day return: -4.76% · Beta (60d): 3.11 · Sector return (1d): -0.08% · Sector return: -0.08% · Borrowed drop: -4.51% |
| 2026-06-03 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.326 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.08 · Dist 52w Low: 0.22 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |