AAL
American Airlines Group
Screener candidate detail · 3 active archetypes
Active
3
archetypes
History
32
rows
Days on list
17
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
6 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
A2 · Oversold Sympathypartialpersisting
score: 0.989confluence: 1days: 17as of 2026-07-23
Triggers:ret_1d -8.7%quality:passdemoted:partial explained by sub_industry_move (attribution_confidence=medium)no_own_news (weak flag — store coverage limited)borrowed_drop -12.08pp (unexplained)sector_explained 1.96×+1.7%=+3.4pp
Dislocation:
1-day return
-8.72%
1-day return
-8.72%
Beta (60d)
1.96
Sector return (1d)
1.71%
Sector return
1.71%
Borrowed drop
-12.08%
Own news
No
Newsless
Yes
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
N5 · Revision Collapseprimednew
score: 0.952confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-07-27
Triggers:analyst_cluster:cluster_downpt_revision_down:-367.0%downtrend:ret_20d -17.8%
Dislocation:
Analyst Cluster State
cluster_down
Pt Change 30d Pct
-3.67%
Negative Pt Trail
Yes
Downtrend Confirmed
Yes
Sma Downtrend
No
Ret Downtrend
Yes
Sma Dist 200
0.09
Ret 20d
-0.18
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
A8 · PEAD Beat Driftprimedpersisting
score: 0.952confluence: 1days: 4as of 2026-07-27
Triggers:quality:passeps_beat:primed (2.000 >= 0.1)earnings_4d_ago
Dislocation:
Eps Surprise
2.00
Days Since Earnings
4.00
Recency Max
10.00
Primed Floor
0.10
Partial Floor
0.03
Direction Of Evidence
pead_beat_continuation
Honesty Caveat
PROVISIONAL. Validated in a single calm post-2022 regime only — no bear in-sample. rank-IC 5d +0.128 [+0.034,+0.216]; 10d +0.125. DISTINCT FROM A1 (A1 is contrarian gap-down recovery; A8 is continuation in the beat direction, no gap-down required). CONTEXT — never advice.
Analyst
[object Object]
Regime at flag: TRANSITIONAL
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
N5 · Revision Collapseshort fragilityactive
1 day
A8 · PEAD Beat Driftlong recoveryactive
2 daysripe: Loaded
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recoveryactive
10 days
N3 · Failed Breakout
5 days
A3 · Positioning Extreme
4 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
10 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 2/3 directionally right · mean +9.0% · small sample, illustrative not proof
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-08 → open14 bars
-10.5%open · MTM
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
+16.4%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-11 → 2026-06-122 bars
+10.7%closed
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-06-10 → open32 bars
-9.1%open · MTM
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-04 → 2026-06-083 bars
-0.1%closed
2 episodes could not be priced (missing OHLCV) and are omitted.
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.952 | 1 | persisting | Eps Surprise: 2.00 · Days Since Earnings: 4.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-27 | N5 · Revision Collapse | primed | 0.952 | 1 | new | Analyst Cluster State: cluster_down · Pt Change 30d Pct: -3.67% · Negative Pt Trail: Yes · Downtrend Confirmed: Yes · Sma Downtrend: No · Ret Downtrend: Yes |
| 2026-07-24 | A8 · PEAD Beat Drift | primed | 0.952 | 1 | new | Eps Surprise: 2.00 · Days Since Earnings: 1.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: 0.10 · Partial Floor: 0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_beat_continuation |
| 2026-07-23 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.989 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -8.72% · 1-day return: -8.72% · Beta (60d): 1.96 · Sector return (1d): 1.71% · Sector return: 1.71% · Borrowed drop: -12.08% |
| 2026-07-22 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.495 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.26% · 1-day return: -3.26% · Beta (60d): 1.74 · Sector return (1d): 0.11% · Sector return: 0.11% · Borrowed drop: -3.44% |
| 2026-07-20 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.079 | 1 | decayed | Breakout Level: 52w_high · Dist 52w High: -0.02 · Sma Dist 20: 0.11 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-17 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.467 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.06% · 1-day return: -4.06% · Beta (60d): 1.63 · Sector return (1d): -0.41% · Sector return: -0.41% · Borrowed drop: -3.39% |
| 2026-07-16 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | exited | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.30 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-07-14 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.624 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.00% · 1-day return: -4.00% · Beta (60d): 1.71 · Sector return (1d): 0.04% · Sector return: 0.04% · Borrowed drop: -4.08% |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.945 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: 1.69% · 1-day return: 1.69% · Beta (60d): 1.84 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -4.93% |
| 2026-07-13 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.264 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.85% · 1-day return: -3.85% · Beta (60d): 1.74 · Sector return (1d): -0.86% · Sector return: -0.86% · Borrowed drop: -2.36% |
| 2026-07-08 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.245 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.03% · 1-day return: -4.03% · Beta (60d): 1.73 · Sector return (1d): -1.08% · Sector return: -1.08% · Borrowed drop: -2.17% |
| 2026-07-07 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.023 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -3.15% · 1-day return: -3.15% · Beta (60d): 1.69 · Sector return (1d): -1.73% · Sector return: -1.73% · Borrowed drop: -0.23% |
| 2026-07-06 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.079 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: 52w_high · Dist 52w High: -0.02 · Sma Dist 20: 0.11 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.945 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: 1.69% · 1-day return: 1.69% · Beta (60d): 1.84 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -4.93% |
| 2026-07-02 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.785 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: 52w_high · Dist 52w High: -0.01 · Sma Dist 20: 0.13 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.945 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.69% · 1-day return: 1.69% · Beta (60d): 1.84 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -4.93% |
| 2026-06-25 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | decayed | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.30 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-06-24 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.463 | 1 | decayed | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.16 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-24 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.095 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: -4.87% · 1-day return: -4.87% · Beta (60d): 1.82 · Sector return (1d): -3.44% · Sector return: -3.44% · Borrowed drop: 1.38% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.883 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.63% · 1-day return: 3.63% · Beta (60d): 1.94 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 3.63% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.886 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.63% · 1-day return: 3.63% · Beta (60d): 1.94 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 3.63% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.891 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.63% · 1-day return: 3.63% · Beta (60d): 1.94 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: 3.63% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.868 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.21% · 1-day return: 3.21% · Beta (60d): 1.93 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.741 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.86% · 1-day return: -1.86% · Beta (60d): 1.92 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.095 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -4.87% · 1-day return: -4.87% · Beta (60d): 1.82 · Sector return (1d): -3.44% · Sector return: -3.44% · Borrowed drop: 1.38% |
| 2026-06-16 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.626 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.60% · 1-day return: 1.60% · Beta (60d): 1.95 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-15 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.888 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 3.15% · 1-day return: 3.15% · Beta (60d): 2.02 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-10 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.463 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.16 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-06-10 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | partial | 0.095 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -4.87% · 1-day return: -4.87% · Beta (60d): 1.82 · Sector return (1d): -3.44% · Sector return: -3.44% · Borrowed drop: 1.38% |
| 2026-06-04 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.02 · Dist 52w Low: 0.30 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-06-03 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.09 · Dist 52w Low: 0.33 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |