AA
Alcoa
Screener candidate detail · 1 active archetype
Active
1
archetypes
History
38
rows
Days on list
5
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
4 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
N6 · PEAD Miss Driftpartialpersisting
score: 0.000confluence: 1days: 5as of 2026-07-24
Triggers:quality:passeps_miss:partial (-0.032 in (-0.1,-0.03))earnings_8d_ago
Dislocation:
Eps Surprise
-0.03
Days Since Earnings
8.00
Recency Max
10.00
Primed Floor
-0.10
Partial Floor
-0.03
Direction Of Evidence
pead_miss_continuation
Honesty Caveat
PROVISIONAL. Validated in a single calm post-2022 regime only — no bear in-sample. rank-IC 5d +0.128 [+0.034,+0.216]; 10d +0.125 (shared PEAD evidence; miss tail: −1.42%/−1.62% at 5d/10d). DISTINCT FROM A1 short-side equivalent — N6 fires on the MISS regardless of whether price gapped (continuation, not reversal). CONTEXT — never advice.
Regime at flag: RISK-ON
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
N6 · PEAD Miss Driftshort fragilityactive
5 days
A2 · Oversold Sympathy
15 days
A3 · Positioning Extreme
4 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
14 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 0/3 directionally right · mean -19.6% · small sample, illustrative not proof
N6 · PEAD Miss Driftshort fragility2026-07-21 → open5 bars
-0.5%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-17 → open7 bars
+0.7%open · MTM
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
-17.2%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-04 → 2026-07-0924 bars
-38.5%dropped
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-04 → 2026-06-083 bars
-3.2%closed
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.817 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -4.73% · 1-day return: -4.73% · Beta (60d): 1.95 · Sector return (1d): 0.42% · Sector return: 0.42% · Borrowed drop: -5.55% |
| 2026-07-24 | N6 · PEAD Miss Drift | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Eps Surprise: -0.03 · Days Since Earnings: 8.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: -0.10 · Partial Floor: -0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_miss_continuation |
| 2026-07-23 | N6 · PEAD Miss Drift | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Eps Surprise: -0.03 · Days Since Earnings: 7.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: -0.10 · Partial Floor: -0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_miss_continuation |
| 2026-07-22 | N6 · PEAD Miss Drift | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Eps Surprise: -0.03 · Days Since Earnings: 6.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: -0.10 · Partial Floor: -0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_miss_continuation |
| 2026-07-21 | N6 · PEAD Miss Drift | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Eps Surprise: -0.03 · Days Since Earnings: 5.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: -0.10 · Partial Floor: -0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_miss_continuation |
| 2026-07-20 | N6 · PEAD Miss Drift | partial | 0.000 | 1 | new | Eps Surprise: -0.03 · Days Since Earnings: 4.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: -0.10 · Partial Floor: -0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_miss_continuation |
| 2026-07-17 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.817 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -4.73% · 1-day return: -4.73% · Beta (60d): 1.95 · Sector return (1d): 0.42% · Sector return: 0.42% · Borrowed drop: -5.55% |
| 2026-07-16 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.132 | 2 | exited | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.22 · Dist 52w Low: 1.89 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-07-14 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.289 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.79% · 1-day return: -3.79% · Beta (60d): 1.53 · Sector return (1d): -0.77% · Sector return: -0.77% · Borrowed drop: -2.61% |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.850 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: 1.90% · 1-day return: 1.90% · Beta (60d): 1.42 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.22% |
| 2026-07-07 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.289 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.79% · 1-day return: -3.79% · Beta (60d): 1.53 · Sector return (1d): -0.77% · Sector return: -0.77% · Borrowed drop: -2.61% |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.850 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: 1.90% · 1-day return: 1.90% · Beta (60d): 1.42 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.22% |
| 2026-07-01 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.971 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -9.36% · 1-day return: -9.36% · Beta (60d): 1.27 · Sector return (1d): 0.37% · Sector return: 0.37% · Borrowed drop: -9.84% |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.850 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.90% · 1-day return: 1.90% · Beta (60d): 1.42 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.22% |
| 2026-06-25 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.132 | 2 | decayed | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.22 · Dist 52w Low: 1.89 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-06-24 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.891 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -5.18% · 1-day return: -5.18% · Beta (60d): 1.46 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.36% · Beta Residual Pct: -5.71% |
| 2026-06-24 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.891 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -5.18% · 1-day return: -5.18% · Beta (60d): 1.46 · Sector return (1d): 0.57% · Sector return: 0.57% · Borrowed drop: -6.01% |
| 2026-06-23 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.728 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -5.77% · 1-day return: -5.77% · Beta (60d): 1.28 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.01 · Spy Ret Pct: -1.20% · Beta Residual Pct: -4.23% |
| 2026-06-23 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.728 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -5.77% · 1-day return: -5.77% · Beta (60d): 1.28 · Sector return (1d): -1.46% · Sector return: -1.46% · Borrowed drop: -3.89% |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.526 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.73% · 1-day return: -1.73% · Beta (60d): 1.14 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.36% |
| 2026-06-22 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.559 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.24% · 1-day return: -3.24% · Beta (60d): 1.15 · Sector return (1d): -0.66% · Sector return: -0.66% · Borrowed drop: -2.48% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.671 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.90% · 1-day return: -3.90% · Beta (60d): 1.15 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.90% |
| 2026-06-21 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.671 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.90% · 1-day return: -3.90% · Beta (60d): 1.15 · Sector return (1d): -0.40% · Sector return: -0.40% · Borrowed drop: -3.43% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.682 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.90% · 1-day return: -3.90% · Beta (60d): 1.15 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.90% |
| 2026-06-20 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.682 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.90% · 1-day return: -3.90% · Beta (60d): 1.15 · Sector return (1d): -0.40% · Sector return: -0.40% · Borrowed drop: -3.43% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.688 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.90% · 1-day return: -3.90% · Beta (60d): 1.15 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.90% |
| 2026-06-19 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.688 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.90% · 1-day return: -3.90% · Beta (60d): 1.15 · Sector return (1d): -0.40% · Sector return: -0.40% · Borrowed drop: -3.43% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.816 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.68% · 1-day return: -2.68% · Beta (60d): 1.21 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-17 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.735 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.83% · 1-day return: -1.83% · Beta (60d): 1.21 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-16 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.726 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.03% · 1-day return: -2.03% · Beta (60d): 1.18 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-15 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.944 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -6.94% · 1-day return: -6.94% · Beta (60d): 1.22 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-15 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.944 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -6.94% · 1-day return: -6.94% · Beta (60d): 1.22 · Sector return (1d): 0.61% · Sector return: 0.61% · Borrowed drop: -7.68% |
| 2026-06-14 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.140 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -0.30% · 1-day return: -0.30% · Beta (60d): 1.55 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-10 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.827 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -9.95% · 1-day return: -9.95% · Beta (60d): 1.46 · Sector return (1d): -2.33% · Sector return: -2.33% · Borrowed drop: -6.55% |
| 2026-06-07 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.727 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -8.18% · 1-day return: -8.18% · Beta (60d): 1.25 · Sector return (1d): -1.94% · Sector return: -1.94% · Borrowed drop: -5.77% |
| 2026-06-05 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.832 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -8.18% · 1-day return: -8.18% · Beta (60d): 1.25 · Sector return (1d): -1.94% · Sector return: -1.94% · Borrowed drop: -5.77% |
| 2026-06-04 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.132 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.22 · Dist 52w Low: 1.89 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-06-03 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.231 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.25 · Dist 52w Low: 1.98 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |