AA
Alcoa
Screener candidate detail · 2 active archetypes
Active
2
archetypes
History
38
rows
Days on list
1
oldest active
Screener Funnel
✓Fired
6 archetypes
✓S1 signal
reached primed
✓S2 deep set
conviction stamped
○Promoted
not promoted
Stages a name passes through: fired an archetype → reached an S1 signal (state ≥ partial) → entered the S2 deep-enrichment set (conviction stamped) → promoted to the watchlist. Each step is "ever reached" across this name's recorded history (capped at 60 rows — a very long-lived name's earliest episodes may fall outside this window).
Active Candidacies
A2 · Oversold Sympathyprimednew
score: 0.383confluence: 1days: 1as of 2026-09-10
Triggers:ret_1d -4.9%quality:passunexplained:idiosyncratic — real A2 (attribution_confidence=low; low confidence here = HIGH A2 conviction)no_own_news (weak flag — store coverage limited)borrowed_drop -3.08pp (unexplained)sector_explained 1.49×-1.2%=-1.8pp
Dislocation:
1-day return
-4.91%
1-day return
-4.91%
Beta (60d)
1.49
Sector return (1d)
-1.23%
Sector return
-1.23%
Borrowed drop
-3.08%
Own news
No
Newsless
Yes
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
N3 · Failed Breakoutprimedpersisting
score: 0.351confluence: 1days: 6as of 2026-09-09
Triggers:quality:passrecent_breakout_above:sma20failure_bar:-1.1%failure_vol:weak:0.14sustained_below
Dislocation:
Breakout Level
sma20
Dist 52w High
-0.39
Sma Dist 20
0.01
Recent Push
Yes
Below Level
Yes
Failure Bar
Yes
Sustained Below
Yes
1-day return
-1.12%
Regime at flag: CAUTIOUS
Promote to Watchlist
Seeds the company layer immediately; full deep-data scaffold runs in the background.
Lifecycle Timeline
One strip per archetype, oldest → newest. Each cell is a trading day the screener recorded this name; color = lifecycle status. A ● marks a day the name was in the buy zone (ripeness confirmed/loaded); a left gap marks the start of a new candidacy episode.
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recoveryactive
10 days
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragilityactive
2 daysripe: Loaded
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling
5 days
N6 · PEAD Miss Drift
7 days
A3 · Positioning Extreme
4 days
A5 · Mechanical Reversion
10 days
newpersistingdecayedexitedpromotedunknownripe day
Realized Episodes
Each completed candidacy graded as a "would-have" trade: entered when the archetype began flagging this name, exited when the screener dropped it. Return is direction-adjusted and market-adjusted (minus SPY, where available) — hindsight, not advice. Open episodes are marked-to-market and excluded from the tally.
Closed: 4/7 directionally right · mean -7.4% · small sample, illustrative not proof
N3 · Failed Breakoutshort fragility2026-09-04 → open5 bars
+3.0%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-08-13 → 2026-08-2812 bars
+3.2%closed
A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coilinglong recovery2026-07-30 → open31 bars
+4.0%open · MTM
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-30 → 2026-07-312 bars
+2.7%dropped
N6 · PEAD Miss Driftshort fragility2026-07-21 → 2026-07-286 bars
+0.9%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-07-17 → 2026-07-213 bars
+0.2%dropped
A5 · Mechanical Reversionlong recovery2026-06-15 → 2026-06-3011 bars
-17.2%closed
A2 · Oversold Sympathylong recovery2026-06-04 → 2026-07-0924 bars
-38.5%dropped
A3 · Positioning Extremelong recovery2026-06-04 → 2026-06-083 bars
-3.2%closed
1 episode could not be priced (missing OHLCV) and is omitted.
Lifecycle History(newest first, up to 60 rows)
| Date | Archetype | State | Score | Confluence | Status | Dislocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.383 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -4.91% · 1-day return: -4.91% · Beta (60d): 1.49 · Sector return (1d): -1.23% · Sector return: -1.23% · Borrowed drop: -3.08% |
| 2026-09-09 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.351 | 1 | persisting | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.39 · Sma Dist 20: 0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-09-09 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.477 | 0 | exited | 1-day return: -3.09% · 1-day return: -3.09% · Beta (60d): 1.79 · Sector return (1d): 0.17% · Sector return: 0.17% · Borrowed drop: -3.39% |
| 2026-09-04 | N3 · Failed Breakout | primed | 0.335 | 1 | new | Breakout Level: sma20 · Dist 52w High: -0.40 · Sma Dist 20: -0.01 · Recent Push: Yes · Below Level: Yes · Failure Bar: Yes |
| 2026-09-02 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.477 | 0 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.09% · 1-day return: -3.09% · Beta (60d): 1.79 · Sector return (1d): 0.17% · Sector return: 0.17% · Borrowed drop: -3.39% |
| 2026-09-02 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | decayed | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 19.12 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-08-26 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.477 | 0 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.09% · 1-day return: -3.09% · Beta (60d): 1.79 · Sector return (1d): 0.17% · Sector return: 0.17% · Borrowed drop: -3.39% |
| 2026-08-24 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.778 | 0 | persisting | 1-day return: -4.86% · 1-day return: -4.86% · Beta (60d): 1.78 · Sector return (1d): 0.07% · Sector return: 0.07% · Borrowed drop: -4.99% |
| 2026-08-21 | N6 · PEAD Miss Drift | partial | 0.000 | 1 | exited | Eps Surprise: -0.03 · Days Since Earnings: 8.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: -0.10 · Partial Floor: -0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_miss_continuation |
| 2026-08-20 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.775 | 0 | persisting | 1-day return: -5.09% · 1-day return: -5.09% · Beta (60d): 1.81 · Sector return (1d): -0.05% · Sector return: -0.05% · Borrowed drop: -5.01% |
| 2026-08-18 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.160 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.32% · 1-day return: -3.32% · Beta (60d): 1.87 · Sector return (1d): -0.88% · Sector return: -0.88% · Borrowed drop: -1.67% |
| 2026-08-13 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.241 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.23% · 1-day return: -3.23% · Beta (60d): 1.84 · Sector return (1d): -0.51% · Sector return: -0.51% · Borrowed drop: -2.29% |
| 2026-08-12 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.381 | 1 | new | 1-day return: -5.43% · 1-day return: -5.43% · Beta (60d): 1.89 · Sector return (1d): -1.25% · Sector return: -1.25% · Borrowed drop: -3.08% |
| 2026-08-07 | N6 · PEAD Miss Drift | partial | 0.000 | 1 | decayed | Eps Surprise: -0.03 · Days Since Earnings: 8.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: -0.10 · Partial Floor: -0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_miss_continuation |
| 2026-08-05 | A2 · Oversold Sympathy | primed | 0.135 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: -3.39% · 1-day return: -3.39% · Beta (60d): 1.81 · Sector return (1d): -1.15% · Sector return: -1.15% · Borrowed drop: -1.30% |
| 2026-08-05 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 19.12 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-08-03 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 7.17 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-07-31 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 8.76 · Inside Day: No · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-07-30 | A4 · Pre-Catalyst Coiling | partial | 0.000 | 1 | new | Realized Vol Pct 1y: 7.97 · Inside Day: Yes · Nr7: Yes · Days To Catalyst: — · Proximity Factor: 0.00 · Iv Pctile: — |
| 2026-07-24 | N6 · PEAD Miss Drift | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Eps Surprise: -0.03 · Days Since Earnings: 8.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: -0.10 · Partial Floor: -0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_miss_continuation |
| 2026-07-23 | N6 · PEAD Miss Drift | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Eps Surprise: -0.03 · Days Since Earnings: 7.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: -0.10 · Partial Floor: -0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_miss_continuation |
| 2026-07-22 | N6 · PEAD Miss Drift | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Eps Surprise: -0.03 · Days Since Earnings: 6.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: -0.10 · Partial Floor: -0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_miss_continuation |
| 2026-07-21 | N6 · PEAD Miss Drift | partial | 0.000 | 1 | persisting | Eps Surprise: -0.03 · Days Since Earnings: 5.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: -0.10 · Partial Floor: -0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_miss_continuation |
| 2026-07-20 | N6 · PEAD Miss Drift | partial | 0.000 | 1 | new | Eps Surprise: -0.03 · Days Since Earnings: 4.00 · Recency Max: 10.00 · Primed Floor: -0.10 · Partial Floor: -0.03 · Direction Of Evidence: pead_miss_continuation |
| 2026-07-16 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.132 | 2 | exited | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.22 · Dist 52w Low: 1.89 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-07-13 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.850 | 1 | exited | 1-day return: 1.90% · 1-day return: 1.90% · Beta (60d): 1.42 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.22% |
| 2026-07-06 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.850 | 1 | decayed | 1-day return: 1.90% · 1-day return: 1.90% · Beta (60d): 1.42 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.22% |
| 2026-06-26 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.850 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: 1.90% · 1-day return: 1.90% · Beta (60d): 1.42 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.04 · Spy Ret Pct: 3.60% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.22% |
| 2026-06-25 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.132 | 2 | decayed | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.22 · Dist 52w Low: 1.89 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-06-24 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.891 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -5.18% · 1-day return: -5.18% · Beta (60d): 1.46 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.36% · Beta Residual Pct: -5.71% |
| 2026-06-23 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.728 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -5.77% · 1-day return: -5.77% · Beta (60d): 1.28 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.01 · Spy Ret Pct: -1.20% · Beta Residual Pct: -4.23% |
| 2026-06-22 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.526 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -1.73% · 1-day return: -1.73% · Beta (60d): 1.14 · Spy Ret 1d: -0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: -0.33% · Beta Residual Pct: -1.36% |
| 2026-06-21 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.671 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.90% · 1-day return: -3.90% · Beta (60d): 1.15 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.90% |
| 2026-06-20 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.682 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.90% · 1-day return: -3.90% · Beta (60d): 1.15 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.90% |
| 2026-06-19 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | primed | 0.688 | 2 | persisting | 1-day return: -3.90% · 1-day return: -3.90% · Beta (60d): 1.15 · Spy Ret 1d: 0.00 · Spy Ret Pct: 0.00% · Beta Residual Pct: -3.90% |
| 2026-06-18 | A5 · Mechanical Reversion | partial | 0.816 | 1 | persisting | 1-day return: -2.68% · 1-day return: -2.68% · Beta (60d): 1.21 · Spy Ret 1d: — · Spy Ret Pct: — · Beta Residual Pct: — |
| 2026-06-04 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.132 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.22 · Dist 52w Low: 1.89 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |
| 2026-06-03 | A3 · Positioning Extreme | partial | 0.231 | 2 | persisting | Short Pct Float: — · Ret 20d: 0.25 · Dist 52w Low: 1.98 · Short Extreme: No · Price Holding: Yes · Options Legs Enabled: Yes |