Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-11 18:04:14 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 57% (4 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.489 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.19 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +5.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 39% β narrow participation, rally is fragile |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +0.1% stable Β· real yield 2.46% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.91 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.38 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.56 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 154 high Β· VVIX/VIX 5.76 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 30 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -1.7% stable, MOVE 82 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.70% moderate, NFCI -0.564 loose |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 70/100 (Mixed) |
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $100, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.489; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DLR, ARWR, HRB
- Shorts: FHI, INCY
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=159) | 3d 39% (n=159) | 5d 33% (n=159)
- Screener Board Record: 375 closed (hit rate 47%) Β· 161 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $764.47 | 50 SMA $758.25 | 200 SMA $713.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.94
- QQQ: $714.98 | 50 SMA $710.61 | 200 SMA $659.51 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $714.05
- IWM: $288.99 | 50 SMA $296.49 | 200 SMA $273.57 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $264.0
- VIX: 15.84 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.975%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $764.47 | 45.14 | 15.5 | $758.94 | Neutral | 0.63 |
| QQQ | $714.98 | 48.14 | 17.6 | $714.05 | Bearish | 0.41 |
| IWM | $288.99 | 33.22 | 12.3 | $264.00 | Neutral | 1.37 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.84 | 64.13 | 24.2 | $11.05 | Neutral | 1.27 |
| TNX | 49.75 | 74.12 | 36.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $398.40 | 38.37 | 38.3 | $400.87 | Bearish | 2.21 |
| DXY | 99.10 | 54.70 | 37.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.25 | 37.81 | 13.5 | $45.01 | Neutral | 1.32 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.489
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.33% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 38.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 33.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 32.4% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 29.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 28.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 20.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 15.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $99.99 (5d: +9.3%)
- Brent Crude: $104.42 | Spread: $4.43
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1300/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.7800/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $54.57/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $65.14
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.17
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.911 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.35 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.379 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.564 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 82.21
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,194,725.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,791,324.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.19 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $533.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $764 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $764.47)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -76,036 contracts (Z +0.67, as of 2026-09-08)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.3% (as of 2026-09-09)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.97%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.06 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.10
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.46% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.40%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 30/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6740.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $883.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $5.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,852B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,858B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,194B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,904B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,984 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.564 with energy in RISING β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [INFO] DIX at 0.489 β strong dark pool buying activity.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $99.99 β energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $154.9 (vs 20d avg 135.62, +2.2Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 154 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] Screener: GME β promotion-ready (85d on list, HIGH conviction 75/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 62% (n=187)).
- [INFO] Screener: MUR β promotion-ready (100d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated precatalyst_coiling hit-rate 58% (n=3276)).
- [INFO] Screener: ALB β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 61/100, regime capitulation, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=6012)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.54%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 334.131 | Prev: 332.813
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.89 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (3):
[1] AUD/USD Price Forecast: Doji high guards bulls as Fed bets bite URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/aud-usd-price-forecast-doji-high-guards-bulls-as-fed-bets-bite-202609112201 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 22:01:02 GMT
[2] Bitcoin could benefit from failed Treasury intervention despite persistent inflation -- CoinShares URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-could-benefit-from-failed-treasury-intervention-despite-persistent-inflation-coinshares-202609112130 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 21:30:46 GMT
[3] Singapore Dollar: Downside bias capped with 1.2705 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/singapore-dollar-downside-bias-capped-with-12705-against-us-dollar-uob-202609112121 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 21:21:00 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (4):
[1] Video: Iran touts Oman talks as gain after its strikes on Arab states Time: 2026-09-11T21:48:52.266Z
[2] US says 99 commercial vessels redirected under Iran blockade Time: 2026-09-11T21:41:13.408Z
[3] GCC condemns Saudi pipeline attack, urges firm Iraqi action Time: 2026-09-11T21:20:31.832Z
[4] Qatar condemns drone attack on Saudi East-West pipeline Time: 2026-09-11T21:07:12.024Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 195 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 7.1% of normal
- Throughput: 7.1% of normal (0.7M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 280
- Oil Prices: Brent $109.51 (+3.19%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 40.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS310 (+520% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.1 billion/day economic cost