Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-11 16:32:30 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 57% (4 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.489 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.19 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +5.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 39% β narrow participation, rally is fragile |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -0.1% neutral Β· real yield 2.46% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.91 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.38 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.56 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.76 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 30 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -1.6% stable, MOVE 82 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.70% moderate, NFCI -0.564 loose |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 39% and energy regime RISING keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $100, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.489; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DLR, ARWR, HRB
- Shorts: VTRS, RJF
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=159) | 3d 39% (n=159) | 5d 33% (n=159)
- Screener Board Record: 375 closed (hit rate 47%) Β· 156 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $764.41 | 50 SMA $758.25 | 200 SMA $713.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.94
- QQQ: $714.90 | 50 SMA $710.61 | 200 SMA $659.51 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $714.05
- IWM: $289.20 | 50 SMA $296.49 | 200 SMA $273.57 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $264.0
- VIX: 15.84 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.975%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $764.41 | 45.14 | 15.5 | $758.94 | Neutral | 0.63 |
| QQQ | $714.90 | 48.14 | 17.6 | $714.05 | Bearish | 0.41 |
| IWM | $289.20 | 33.22 | 12.3 | $264.00 | Neutral | 1.37 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.84 | 64.13 | 24.2 | $11.04 | Neutral | 1.34 |
| TNX | 49.75 | 74.12 | 36.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $398.63 | 38.37 | 38.3 | $400.87 | Bearish | 2.21 |
| DXY | 99.12 | 55.06 | 37.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.15 | 37.81 | 13.5 | $45.01 | Neutral | 1.32 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.489
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 38.9%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 58.5% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 33.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 32.4% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 29.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 28.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 20.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 15.4% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $100.31 (5d: +9.7%)
- Brent Crude: $104.76 | Spread: $4.45
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1300/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.7900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $54.39/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $65.14
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.17
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.91 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.348 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.382 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.563 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 82.09
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,194,725.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,791,324.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.19 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $533.9B
- Gamma Call Wall: $764 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $764.41)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -76,036 contracts (Z +0.67, as of 2026-09-08)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.3% (as of 2026-09-09)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.97%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.06 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.12
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.46% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.40%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 30/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6740.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $883.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $5.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,852B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,858B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,194B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,904B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,314 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $100.31 β triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.563 with energy in RISING β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [INFO] DIX at 0.489 β strong dark pool buying activity.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $100.31 β energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $154.9 (vs 20d avg 135.62, +2.2Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] Screener: 2 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-11 β EXEL (conviction 70/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=3087)); ILMN (conviction 62/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 62% (n=187)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: KRYS β promotion-ready (36d on list, HIGH conviction 63/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 62% (n=187)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.54%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 334.131 | Prev: 332.813
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.89 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (10):
[1] Crude Oil buckles early and grinds back on talk of a Hormuz arrangement URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/crude-oil-buckles-early-and-grinds-back-on-talk-of-a-hormuz-arrangement-202609112019 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 20:19:56 GMT
[2] Economics week ahead URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/economics-week-ahead-202609112010 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 20:10:35 GMT
[3] United States Monthly Budget Statement came in at $-166.8B, above expectations ($-404B) in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-monthly-budget-statement-came-in-at-1668b-above-expectations-404b-in-august-202609112007 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 20:07:11 GMT
[4] Japan CFTC JPY NC Net Positions: Β₯10.8K vs Β₯-92.2K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japan-cftc-jpy-nc-net-positions-y108k-vs-y-922k-202609112006 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 20:06:49 GMT
[5] Eurozone CFTC EUR NC Net Positions dipped from previous β¬-24.9K to β¬-42.6K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/eurozone-cftc-eur-nc-net-positions-dipped-from-previous-eur-249k-to-eur-426k-202609112006 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 20:06:41 GMT
[6] United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions rose from previous $228.1K to $232K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-cftc-gold-nc-net-positions-rose-from-previous-2281k-to-232k-202609112006 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 20:06:35 GMT
[7] Australia CFTC AUD NC Net Positions climbed from previous $-39.4K to $-34.9K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australia-cftc-aud-nc-net-positions-climbed-from-previous-394k-to-349k-202609112006 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 20:06:30 GMT
[8] United Kingdom CFTC GBP NC Net Positions dipped from previous Β£-49.6K to Β£-58.8K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-cftc-gbp-nc-net-positions-dipped-from-previous-ps-496k-to-ps-588k-202609112006 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 20:06:22 GMT
[9] United States CFTC Oil NC Net Positions rose from previous 129.9K to 136.6K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-cftc-oil-nc-net-positions-rose-from-previous-1299k-to-1366k-202609112006 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 20:06:16 GMT
[10] United States CFTC S&P 500 NC Net Positions declined to $-76K from previous $-75.9K URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-cftc-sp-500-nc-net-positions-declined-to-76k-from-previous-759k-202609112006 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 20:06:11 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Saudi Arabia says drones launched from Iraq struck East-West pipeline Time: 2026-09-11T20:26:39.950Z
[2] Iran says seeking closer coordination with China Time: 2026-09-11T20:21:05.581Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 195 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 10.0% of normal
- Throughput: 6.0% of normal (0.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 436
- Oil Prices: Brent $109.51 (+3.19%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 58.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS850 (+1600% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost