Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-11 15:09:26 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 57% (4 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | DIX 0.489 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.16 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +5.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 38% β narrow participation, rally is fragile |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -0.1% neutral Β· real yield 2.46% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.91 normal, SPY/DXY -0.34 normal, SPY/TNX -0.37 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.57 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 15.9 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.82 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 30 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -1.6% stable, MOVE 82 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.70% moderate, NFCI -0.564 loose |
Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 38% and energy regime RISING keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $100, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.489; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.9 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $764.83 | 50 SMA $758.25 | 200 SMA $713.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.95
- QQQ: $715.73 | 50 SMA $710.61 | 200 SMA $659.51 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $711.31
- IWM: $289.12 | 50 SMA $296.49 | 200 SMA $273.57 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $290.83
- VIX: 15.87 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.975%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $764.83 | 45.14 | 15.5 | $758.95 | Neutral | 0.76 |
| QQQ | $715.73 | 48.14 | 17.6 | $711.31 | Bearish | 0.47 |
| IWM | $289.12 | 33.22 | 12.3 | $290.83 | Bearish | 2.20 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 15.87 | 64.13 | 24.2 | $11.05 | Neutral | 1.40 |
| TNX | 49.75 | 74.12 | 36.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $398.74 | 38.37 | 38.3 | $400.90 | Bearish | 2.11 |
| DXY | 99.12 | 55.12 | 37.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.09 | 37.81 | 13.5 | $58.49 | Neutral | 1.26 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.489
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 38.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.9%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.0%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 73.7% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 60.0% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 55.6% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 33.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 33.3% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 32.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 28.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 19.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 19.2% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $100.44 (5d: +9.8%)
- Brent Crude: $104.90 | Spread: $4.46
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1400/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.7900/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $54.54/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $65.02
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.19
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.914 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.337 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.371 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.57 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 82.09
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 2,841,034.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,298,238.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.16 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $469.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $765 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $764.83)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.3% (as of 2026-09-09)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.97%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.06 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.12
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.46% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.40%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 30/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6740.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $883.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $5.3B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,852B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,858B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,194B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,904B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,148 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $100.44 β triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.57 with energy in RISING β crude shock propagating into equities.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [INFO] DIX at 0.489 β strong dark pool buying activity.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $100.44 β energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $154.68 (vs 20d avg 135.62, +2.2Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] Screener: 2 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-11 β EXEL (conviction 70/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=3087)); ILMN (conviction 62/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 62% (n=187)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: KRYS β promotion-ready (36d on list, HIGH conviction 63/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 62% (n=187)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.53%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 334.131 | Prev: 332.813
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.89 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (1):
[1] US Treasury yields ease after CPI, but Fed hike risks linger URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-treasury-yields-ease-after-cpi-but-fed-hike-risks-linger-202609111852 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 18:52:24 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 195 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 7.1% of normal
- Throughput: 6.0% of normal (0.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 436
- Oil Prices: Brent $109.51 (+3.19%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 40.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS280 (+460% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.4 billion/day economic cost