Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-11 13:05:05 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.3% (3d) | Alignment: 57% (4 aligned, 3 divergent) Status: MIXED — Mixed — no clear signal consensus

Category	Signal Says	vs SPY	Key Driver
Dark Pool	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	DIX 0.489 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.11 put-heavy
Gamma	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	GEX +5.7B strong suppression
Breadth	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Breadth 38% — narrow participation, rally is fragile
Energy	🔴 BEARISH	✗ DIVERGENT	Energy RISING — oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Copper/Gold -0.5% neutral · real yield 2.46% restrictive
Correlations	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.35 normal, SPY/TNX -0.43 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.58 stretched
Volatility	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	VIX 15.7 sub-20 in contango · SKEW 147 firm · VVIX/VIX 5.84 dealer stress
Inflation	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Stagflation score 30 — moderate, watching
carry_risk	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	USD/JPY 5d -1.6% stable, MOVE 82 calm
Liquidity	⚪ NEUTRAL	—	Liquidity Adequate
Credit	🟢 BULLISH	✓ ALIGNED	HY OAS 2.70% moderate, NFCI -0.564 loose

Divergence read: Signals are mixed with no strong directional consensus against price.

Market Status

Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS — breadth at 38% and energy regime RISING keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $100, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.489; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.7 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

SPY: $765.69 | 50 SMA $758.25 | 200 SMA $713.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $760.95
QQQ: $716.31 | 50 SMA $710.61 | 200 SMA $659.51 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $711.48
IWM: $289.46 | 50 SMA $296.49 | 200 SMA $273.57 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $290.83
VIX: 15.69 — sub-20 (low vol)
10Y Yield: 4.955%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
SPY	$765.69	45.14	15.5	$760.95	Neutral	0.73
QQQ	$716.31	48.14	17.6	$711.48	Neutral	0.54
IWM	$289.46	33.22	12.3	$290.83	Bearish	2.07

Macro Board

Ticker	Price	RSI(14)	IVR	ZGL	γ-Sent	PCR
VIX	15.69	64.13	24.2	$11.05	Neutral	1.41
TNX	49.55	74.12	36.7	-	-	-
GLD	$400.02	38.37	38.3	$400.78	Bearish	1.54
DXY	99.10	54.82	37.5	-	-	-
SLV	$58.22	37.81	13.5	$58.47	Neutral	1.12

Dark Pool Activity

DIX (Dark Index): 0.489
DIX Signal: Strong buying
GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.71B

Credit Conditions

HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
BBB Spread: 0.98%
2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 37.5%
Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.7%
Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
Top 10 Concentration: 42.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector	% > 50d SMA	Stocks
Energy	89.5%	0/0
Communication Services	68.4%	0/0
Technology	56.9%	0/0
Health Care	53.7%	0/0
Financials	33.8%	0/0
Consumer Staples	32.4%	0/0
Consumer Discretionary	30.5%	0/0
Materials	29.2%	0/0
Industrials	22.4%	0/0
Real Estate	11.5%	0/0
Utilities	10.0%	0/0

Energy & Commodities

Energy Regime: RISING
WTI Crude: $100.19 (5d: +9.5%)
Brent Crude: $105.17 | Spread: $4.98
RBOB Gasoline: $3.1500/gal
Heating Oil: $4.8100/gal
3-2-1 Crack Spread: $55.35/bbl (Very wide)
XLE (Energy Sector): $65.12
UNG (Nat Gas): $10.10

Correlations

Pair	20d Corr	Signal
SPY / VIX	-0.916	normal
SPY / DXY	-0.35	normal
SPY / TNX	-0.432	elevated
SPY / Oil	-0.578	stretched

Volatility & Options

Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 82.09
VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
0DTE Call Volume: 2,143,710.0
0DTE Put Volume: 2,380,082.0
0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.11 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $346.4B
Gamma Call Wall: $765 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $765.69)

CTA Trend Stack

SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) · below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.3% (as of 2026-09-09)
Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers · no triggers active)
Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch · Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

10Y Yield: 4.96%
Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.05 (Normal)
DXY: 99.10
Growth vs Value: 0.94
Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

5Y Breakeven: 2.46% (Near Target)
10Y Breakeven: 2.40%
5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
Stagflation Risk Score: 30/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6740.6B
Treasury General Account (TGA): $883.3B
Reverse Repo (RRP): $4.7B
US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,853B
Liquidity Regime: Adequate
ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,868B
BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,201B
Global Net Liquidity: $16,922B
BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,948 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

[CRITICAL] WTI crude at $100.19 — triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
[WARNING] SPY near gamma wall — expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
[WARNING] Oil-equity transmission active: SPY-Oil correlation at -0.578 with energy in RISING — crude shock propagating into equities.
[WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected — normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
[INFO] DIX at 0.489 — strong dark pool buying activity.
[CRITICAL] WTI crude at $100.19 — energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
[WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $154.19 (vs 20d avg 135.62, +2.1σ), floor $75.00 — potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
[WARNING] SKEW at 147 — elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
[INFO] Screener: 2 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-11 — EXEL (conviction 70/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=3087)); ILMN (conviction 62/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 62% (n=187)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
[INFO] Screener: KRYS — promotion-ready (36d on list, HIGH conviction 63/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 62% (n=187)).

Seasonality

Current Month: September
Average Return: -0.53%
Median Return: +0.30%
Hit Rate: 55%
Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

Consumer Price Index (CPI): ⏳ Pending

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.89 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓3.4% vs 30d)
AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.3% vs 30d)
WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (1):

[1] Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD shakes off US CPI jolt as UK growth steals spotlight URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/pound-sterling-price-news-and-forecast-gbp-usd-shakes-off-us-cpi-jolt-as-uk-growth-steals-spotlight-202609111657 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 16:57:53 GMT

Iran War News

Updates (1):

[1] Iran says sounds heard on Qeshm Island were from air defense test Time: 2026-09-11T16:47:55.717Z

Hormuz Strait Status

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 195 days ago)
Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily — 5.0% of normal
Throughput: 5.0% of normal (0.5M / 10.3M DWT)
Stranded Vessels: 0
Oil Prices: Brent $109.51 (+3.19%)
War Risk Insurance: EXTREME — 56.7x normal
Tanker Rates: WS185 (+270% vs pre-crisis)
Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost