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2026-W37

Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-11 11:33:54 ET

Signal Alignment

SPY Direction: SPY +0.4% (3d) | Alignment: 67% (4 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED β€” Mixed β€” no clear signal consensus

Category Signal Says vs SPY Key Driver
Dark Pool βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” DIX 0.489 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.03 balanced
Gamma 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED GEX +5.7B strong suppression
Breadth πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Breadth 38% β€” narrow participation, rally is fragile
Energy πŸ”΄ BEARISH βœ— DIVERGENT Energy RISING β€” oil climbing, margin pressure building
growth_expectations βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Copper/Gold -0.7% neutral Β· real yield 2.46% restrictive
Correlations 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.36 normal, SPY/TNX -0.46 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.60 stretched
Volatility βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” VIX 15.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.92 dealer stress
Inflation βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Stagflation score 30 β€” moderate, watching
carry_risk 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED USD/JPY 5d -1.8% stable, MOVE 82 calm
Liquidity βšͺ NEUTRAL β€” Liquidity Adequate
Credit 🟒 BULLISH βœ“ ALIGNED HY OAS 2.70% moderate, NFCI -0.564 loose

Divergence read: Cautious regime but gamma, correlations, and carry are turning bullish β€” if breadth and energy confirm, this becomes a legitimate lean.

Market Status

Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β€” breadth at 38% and energy regime RISING keeps full risk-on classification at bay.

Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $100, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.489; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 15.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.

Screener Action Board

  • Screener Action Board not available this cycle.

Track Record

  • AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
  • Screener board record not available this cycle.

What Changed

  • No signal changes detected.

Key Levels

  • SPY: $765.99 | 50 SMA $758.25 | 200 SMA $713.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $760.93
  • QQQ: $717.44 | 50 SMA $710.61 | 200 SMA $659.51 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $711.39
  • IWM: $289.56 | 50 SMA $296.49 | 200 SMA $273.57 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $290.74
  • VIX: 15.81 β€” sub-20 (low vol)
  • 10Y Yield: 4.934%

Equity & Derivatives Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
SPY $765.99 45.14 15.5 $760.93 Neutral 0.73
QQQ $717.44 48.14 17.6 $711.39 Neutral 0.52
IWM $289.56 33.22 12.3 $290.74 Bearish 1.86

Macro Board

Ticker Price RSI(14) IVR ZGL Ξ³-Sent PCR
VIX 15.81 64.13 24.2 $11.03 Neutral 1.34
TNX 49.34 74.12 36.7 - - -
GLD $401.05 38.37 38.3 $400.72 Neutral 1.36
DXY 99.05 53.99 37.5 - - -
SLV $58.28 37.81 13.5 $58.47 Neutral 1.06

Dark Pool Activity

  • DIX (Dark Index): 0.489
  • DIX Signal: Strong buying
  • GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.71B

Credit Conditions

  • HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
  • BBB Spread: 0.98%
  • 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)

Market Breadth

  • Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 37.5%
  • Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.7%
  • Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
  • Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
  • Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
  • Top 10 Concentration: 42.1%

Sector Breadth

Sector % > 50d SMA Stocks
Energy 89.5% 0/0
Communication Services 68.4% 0/0
Health Care 59.3% 0/0
Technology 53.8% 0/0
Financials 36.8% 0/0
Consumer Staples 32.4% 0/0
Consumer Discretionary 32.2% 0/0
Materials 29.2% 0/0
Industrials 17.9% 0/0
Real Estate 11.5% 0/0
Utilities 10.0% 0/0

Energy & Commodities

  • Energy Regime: RISING
  • WTI Crude: $99.55 (5d: +8.8%)
  • Brent Crude: $104.83 | Spread: $5.28
  • RBOB Gasoline: $3.1500/gal
  • Heating Oil: $4.8100/gal
  • 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $55.99/bbl (Very wide)
  • XLE (Energy Sector): $65.02
  • UNG (Nat Gas): $10.15

Correlations

Pair 20d Corr Signal
SPY / VIX -0.918 normal
SPY / DXY -0.359 normal
SPY / TNX -0.458 elevated
SPY / Oil -0.596 stretched

Volatility & Options

  • Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
  • MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 82.09
  • VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
  • 0DTE Call Volume: 1,522,444.0
  • 0DTE Put Volume: 1,562,075.0
  • 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.03 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
  • 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $236.3B
  • Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $765.99)

CTA Trend Stack

  • SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
  • Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d

Positioning & Sentiment

  • CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
  • AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.3% (as of 2026-09-09)
  • Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
  • Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none

Macro Fundamentals

  • 10Y Yield: 4.93%
  • Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.04 (Normal)
  • DXY: 99.05
  • Growth vs Value: 0.94
  • Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
  • Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A

Inflation Expectations

  • 5Y Breakeven: 2.46% (Near Target)
  • 10Y Breakeven: 2.40%
  • 5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
  • Stagflation Risk Score: 30/100

Fed & Global Liquidity

  • Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6740.6B
  • Treasury General Account (TGA): $883.3B
  • Reverse Repo (RRP): $4.7B
  • US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,853B
  • Liquidity Regime: Adequate
  • ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,868B
  • BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,201B
  • Global Net Liquidity: $16,922B
  • BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,187 (Neutral)

Active Alerts

  • [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β€” normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
  • [INFO] DIX at 0.489 β€” strong dark pool buying activity.
  • [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $99.55 β€” energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
  • [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $152.63 (vs 20d avg 135.62, +1.9Οƒ), floor $75.00 β€” potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
  • [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β€” elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
  • [INFO] Screener: 2 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-11 β€” EXEL (conviction 70/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=3087)); ILMN (conviction 62/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 62% (n=187)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
  • [INFO] Screener: KRYS β€” promotion-ready (36d on list, HIGH conviction 63/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 62% (n=187)).
  • [INFO] Screener: HOG β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated precatalyst_coiling hit-rate 58% (n=3276)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: GPN β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated precatalyst_coiling hit-rate 58% (n=3276)). Worth a look.
  • [INFO] Screener: ILMN β€” new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 62% (n=187)). Worth a look.

Seasonality

  • Current Month: September
  • Average Return: -0.53%
  • Median Return: +0.30%
  • Hit Rate: 55%
  • Signal: Historically Neutral

Today's Events

Economic Releases:

  • Consumer Price Index (CPI): 334.131 | Prev: 332.813

Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)

Economic Releases:

  • Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
  • Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
  • Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
  • Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
  • Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02

Earnings & EPS Estimates:

  • JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.89 (↓0.3% vs 30d)
  • GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (↑16.6% vs 30d)
  • TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (↓0.5% vs 30d)
  • MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (↑0.1% vs 30d)
  • GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (↓3.4% vs 30d)
  • AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (↑0.0% vs 30d)
  • AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (↑0.2% vs 30d)
  • NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (↑5.3% vs 30d)
  • WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (↓6.8% vs 30d)

FX News Wire

Unread articles (1):

[1] Australian Dollar holds firm as hotter US inflation fails to cement Greenback's advantage URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-holds-firm-as-hotter-us-inflation-fails-to-cement-greenbacks-advantage-202609111519 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 15:19:40 GMT

Iran War News

No new Iran International updates since last report.

Hormuz Strait Status

Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.

Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:

  • Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 195 days ago)
  • Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β€” 10.0% of normal
  • Throughput: 6.0% of normal (0.6M / 10.3M DWT)
  • Stranded Vessels: 250
  • Oil Prices: Brent $109.51 (+3.19%)
  • War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β€” 50.0x normal
  • Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
  • Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost