Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-11 10:38:11 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY +0.2% (3d) | Alignment: 67% (4 aligned, 2 divergent) Status: MIXED β Mixed β no clear signal consensus
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.489 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.02 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | GEX +5.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Breadth 38% β narrow participation, rally is fragile |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β DIVERGENT | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -0.7% neutral Β· real yield 2.46% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | SPY/VIX -0.92 normal, SPY/DXY -0.38 normal, SPY/TNX -0.46 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.58 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 16.1 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.94 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 30 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | USD/JPY 5d -1.8% stable, MOVE 82 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β ALIGNED | HY OAS 2.70% moderate, NFCI -0.564 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime but gamma, correlations, and carry are turning bullish β if breadth and energy confirm, this becomes a legitimate lean.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 71/100 (Favorable, with caution) | Score reads 71 (Favorable) but regime is CAUTIOUS β breadth at 38% and energy regime RISING keeps full risk-on classification at bay.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $100, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.489; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 16.1 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $764.59 | 50 SMA $758.25 | 200 SMA $713.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $760.94
- QQQ: $715.15 | 50 SMA $710.61 | 200 SMA $659.51 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $711.39
- IWM: $289.10 | 50 SMA $296.49 | 200 SMA $273.57 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $290.71
- VIX: 16.05 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.934%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $764.59 | 45.14 | 15.5 | $760.94 | Neutral | 0.97 |
| QQQ | $715.15 | 48.14 | 17.6 | $711.39 | Neutral | 0.65 |
| IWM | $289.10 | 33.22 | 12.3 | $290.71 | Bearish | 1.97 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 16.05 | 64.13 | 24.2 | $11.04 | Neutral | 1.31 |
| TNX | 49.34 | 74.12 | 36.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $400.70 | 38.37 | 38.3 | $400.74 | Neutral | 1.43 |
| DXY | 99.04 | 53.71 | 37.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.35 | 37.81 | 13.5 | $58.47 | Neutral | 1.01 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.489
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.70% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.98%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 37.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.7%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.6%
- Top 10 Concentration: 42.1%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 89.5% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 68.4% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 59.3% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 53.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 36.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 32.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 32.2% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 29.2% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 17.9% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 11.5% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $99.67 (5d: +8.9%)
- Brent Crude: $105.01 | Spread: $5.34
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.8400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.57/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $65.11
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.18
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.915 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.379 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.461 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.576 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 82.09
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.19 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 886,147.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 900,803.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.02 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $136.6B
- Gamma Call Wall: $765 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $764.59)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.3% (as of 2026-09-09)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket watch Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.93%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.05 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.04
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.46% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.40%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 30/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6740.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $883.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $4.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,853B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,868B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,201B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,922B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $79,187 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [INFO] DIX at 0.489 β strong dark pool buying activity.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $99.67 β energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $154.1 (vs 20d avg 135.62, +2.1Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] Screener: 2 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-11 β EXEL (conviction 70/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 47% (n=3087)); ILMN (conviction 62/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 62% (n=187)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: KRYS β promotion-ready (36d on list, HIGH conviction 63/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 62% (n=187)).
- [INFO] Screener: HOG β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 67/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated precatalyst_coiling hit-rate 58% (n=3276)). Worth a look.
- [INFO] Screener: GPN β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated precatalyst_coiling hit-rate 58% (n=3276)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.53%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 334.131 | Prev: 332.813
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.89 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (3):
[1] Gold Weekly Forecast: Fed rate call and dot plot key for next directional action URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-weekly-forecast-fed-rate-call-and-dot-plot-key-for-next-directional-action-202609111410 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 14:10:09 GMT
[2] Canadian Dollar slides with Oil prices, US CPI fails to keep US Dollar higher URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-slides-with-oil-prices-us-cpi-fails-to-keep-us-dollar-higher-202609111409 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 14:09:51 GMT
[3] United Kingdom: Growth outlook strengthens with AI-driven services - Deutsche Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-growth-outlook-strengthens-with-ai-driven-services-deutsche-bank-202609111408 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 14:08:31 GMT
Iran War News
No new Iran International updates since last report.
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 195 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 5 of 60 normal daily β 8.3% of normal
- Throughput: 8.3% of normal (0.8M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 280
- Oil Prices: Brent $109.51 (+3.19%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS310 (+520% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $3.2 billion/day economic cost