Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-11 05:03:16 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.1% (3d) | Alignment: 43% (3 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.489 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.29 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 34% β narrow participation, rally is fragile |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -0.1% neutral Β· real yield 2.46% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.89 normal, SPY/DXY -0.39 normal, SPY/TNX -0.46 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.51 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.2 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.88 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 30 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -1.4% stable, MOVE 82 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.564 loose |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 69/100 (Mixed) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $100, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.489; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.2 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DLR, ARWR, HRB
- Shorts: VTRS, RJF
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=159) | 3d 39% (n=159) | 5d 33% (n=159)
- Screener Board Record: 375 closed (hit rate 47%) Β· 151 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $762.45 | 50 SMA $758.25 | 200 SMA $713.71 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $761.87
- QQQ: $713.23 | 50 SMA $710.61 | 200 SMA $659.51 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $716.06
- IWM: $289.75 | 50 SMA $296.49 | 200 SMA $273.57 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $263.0
- VIX: 17.25 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.944%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $762.45 | 45.14 | 15.5 | $761.87 | Bearish | 3.30 |
| QQQ | $713.23 | 48.14 | 17.6 | $716.06 | Bearish | 2.21 |
| IWM | $289.75 | 33.22 | 12.3 | $263.00 | Bearish | 4.82 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.25 | 64.13 | 24.2 | $10.00 | None | None |
| TNX | 49.44 | 74.12 | 36.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $398.82 | 38.37 | 38.3 | $340.00 | Bearish | 7.73 |
| DXY | 99.09 | 54.56 | 37.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $57.92 | 37.81 | 13.5 | $43.00 | Neutral | 1.10 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.489
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 33.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.3%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 55.6% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 52.3% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 33.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 29.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 26.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 25.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 11.9% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 3.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $99.94 (5d: +9.3%)
- Brent Crude: $104.60 | Spread: $4.66
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.3400/gal
- Heating Oil: $5.0000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $63.58/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.93
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.19
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.891 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.386 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.457 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.514 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 82.09
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.21 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 0.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.29 (No 0DTE Flow Yet)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $101.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $762.45)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.3% (as of 2026-09-09)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.94%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.10 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.09
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.46% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.40%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 30/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6740.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $883.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $4.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,853B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,860B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,184B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,896B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,319 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] 3-2-1 crack spread at $63.58/bbl (vs 20d avg 59.24, +1.8Ο), floor $35.00/bbl β refining margins extremely elevated, consumer fuel price pressure.
- [INFO] DIX at 0.489 β strong dark pool buying activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $99.94 β energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $158.38 (vs 20d avg 135.62, +2.6Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] SPY (762.45) reclaimed ZGL (761.87) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: zero_dte_pcr is STALE (~0h old vs an expected max of ~0h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hy_oas is STALE (~55h old vs an expected max of ~49h) and it feeds the drawdown-risk lens and/or the health score β those surfaces are running on stale input.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.58%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 332.813 | Prev: 332.568
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.89 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (8):
[1] Australian Dollar: Fresh downside momentum targets 0.7120 against US Dollar - UOB URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-fresh-downside-momentum-targets-07120-against-us-dollar-uob-202609110843 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 08:43:44 GMT
[2] Resilience to global headwinds but risks persist URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/resilience-to-global-headwinds-but-risks-persist-202609110837 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 08:37:31 GMT
[3] United Kingdom Consumer Inflation Expectations dipped from previous 4% to 3.2% URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-kingdom-consumer-inflation-expectations-dipped-from-previous-4-to-32-202609110834 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 08:34:35 GMT
[4] US core CPI data set to ease in August as markets reprice Fed September rate decision URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-core-cpi-data-set-to-ease-in-august-as-markets-reprice-fed-september-rate-decision-202609110830 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 08:30:00 GMT
[5] British Pound: Strong data clashes with dovish BoE view - ING URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/british-pound-strong-data-clashes-with-dovish-boe-view-ing-202609110829 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 08:29:49 GMT
[6] Euro fails at 179.50 as BoJ tightening hopes underpin Japanese Yen URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/chart-analysis-eur-jpy-2026-09-11-08-17-202609110829 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 08:29:38 GMT
[7] Descartes Systems (DSGX) meets Q2 earnings estimates URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/descartes-systems-dsgx-meets-q2-earnings-estimates-202609110828 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 08:28:53 GMT
[8] Serbia: Growth firms, but the guard stays up URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/serbia-growth-firms-but-the-guard-stays-up-202609110826 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 08:26:31 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[BREAKING] [1] Yemeni government forces withdraw from Perim Island in Bab el-Mandeb - Reuters Time: 2026-09-11T08:33:24.439Z
[2] IRGC official says Iran has raised cost of military confrontation Time: 2026-09-11T08:29:25.498Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 195 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 10.0% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 436
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 50.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS950 (+1800% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $9.2 billion/day economic cost