Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-11 03:40:16 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.7% (3d) | Alignment: 43% (3 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.489 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.29 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 34% β narrow participation, rally is fragile |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold +0.4% stable Β· real yield 2.46% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.89 normal, SPY/DXY -0.40 elevated, SPY/TNX -0.45 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.50 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.5 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.87 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 30 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -1.3% stable, MOVE 82 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.564 loose |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 64/100 (Mixed) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $101, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.489; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.5 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DLR, ARWR, HRB
- Shorts: VTRS, RJF
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=159) | 3d 39% (n=159) | 5d 33% (n=159)
- Screener Board Record: 375 closed (hit rate 47%) Β· 151 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $757.53 | 50 SMA $758.25 | 200 SMA $713.71 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.77
- QQQ: $706.90 | 50 SMA $710.61 | 200 SMA $659.51 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.94
- IWM: $287.18 | 50 SMA $296.49 | 200 SMA $273.57 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $263.0
- VIX: 17.50 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.944%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $757.53 | 45.14 | 15.5 | $758.77 | Bearish | 2.13 |
| QQQ | $706.90 | 48.14 | 17.6 | $712.94 | Bearish | 2.26 |
| IWM | $287.18 | 33.22 | 12.3 | $263.00 | Bearish | 4.37 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.50 βΌ | 64.13 | 24.2 | $10.00 | None | None |
| TNX | 49.44 | 74.12 | 36.7 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $395.64 | 38.37 | 38.3 | $340.00 | Bearish | 7.82 |
| DXY | 99.06 β² | 53.99 | 37.5 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $57.31 | 37.81 | 13.5 | $43.00 | Neutral | 1.10 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.489
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.39% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 33.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.3%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 55.6% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 52.3% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 33.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 29.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 26.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 25.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 11.9% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 3.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $100.64 βΌ (5d: +10.0% βΌ)
- Brent Crude: $105.34 βΌ | Spread: $4.70 βΌ
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1600/gal βΌ
- Heating Oil: $5.0400/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $58.40/bbl βΌ (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.93
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.19
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.894 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.403 | elevated |
| SPY / TNX | -0.452 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.501 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 82.09
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 β² (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 587,022.0 β²
- 0DTE Put Volume: 754,819.0 β²
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.29 (Balanced 0DTE Flow β)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $101.7B
- Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $757.53)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 2/4 above
- Position: Above 100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20,50d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.3% (as of 2026-09-09)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.94%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.10 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.06 β²
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.46% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.40%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.34%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 30/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6740.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $883.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $4.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,853B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,865B β²
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,180B βΌ
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,898B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,316 β² (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [INFO] DIX at 0.489 β strong dark pool buying activity.
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $100.64 β triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $100.64 β energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $158.38 (vs 20d avg 135.62, +2.6Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 147 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 42 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: sovereign_ath_count has printed the same value (2.0) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: sovereign_decade_high_count has printed the same value (6.0) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.58%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 332.813 | Prev: 332.568
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.89 (β0.3% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.0% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (5):
[1] Dow Jones futures rise ahead of US CPI inflation data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/dow-jones-futures-rise-ahead-of-us-cpi-inflation-data-202609110730 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 07:30:10 GMT
[2] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD bounces off 38.2% Fibo. near $63.00; bearish bias remains URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-bounces-off-382-fibo-near-6300-bearish-bias-remains-202609110727 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 07:27:32 GMT
[3] UK Chancellor Healey: Economy demonstrates welcome resilience despite global uncertainty URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uk-chancellor-healey-economy-demonstrates-welcome-resilience-despite-global-uncertainty-202609110725 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 07:25:07 GMT
[4] Norwegian Krone: Softer inflation clouds September hike odds - Danske Bank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/norwegian-krone-softer-inflation-clouds-september-hike-odds-danske-bank-202609110724 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 07:24:42 GMT
[5] USD/JPY Price Forecast: US Dollar recovery, likely to be tested at 155.20 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-price-forecast-us-dollar-recovery-likely-to-be-tested-at-15520-202609110724 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 07:24:14 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (2):
[1] Lawmaker says Iran will soon break US naval blockade in Persian Gulf Time: 2026-09-11T07:27:44.563Z
[2] Lawmaker urges Iran to broaden threats beyond US bases Time: 2026-09-11T06:51:12.643Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 195 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 6 of 60 normal daily β 7.0% of normal
- Throughput: 6.0% of normal (0.6M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 436
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 40.0x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS677 (+1254% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $8.5 billion/day economic cost