Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-11 00:02:05 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.6% (3d) | Alignment: 43% (3 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.489 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.14 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.7B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 34% β narrow participation, rally is fragile |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -0.3% neutral Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.87 normal, SPY/DXY -0.38 normal, SPY/TNX -0.46 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.50 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 147 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.75 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 26 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.8% stable, MOVE 82 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.564 loose |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 65/100 (Mixed) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $104, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.489; GEX positive at 5.7B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $758.29 | 50 SMA $758.02 | 200 SMA $713.18 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.77
- QQQ: $708.98 | 50 SMA $711.17 | 200 SMA $658.90 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.16
- IWM: $287.56 | 50 SMA $296.74 | 200 SMA $273.27 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.06
- VIX: 17.84 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.944%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $758.29 | 43.46 | 15.4 | $758.77 | Bearish | 2.13 |
| QQQ | $708.98 | 50.20 | 16.0 | $712.16 | Bearish | 1.93 |
| IWM | $287.56 | 32.02 | 10.9 | $295.06 | Bearish | 4.36 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.84 | 52.48 | 22.7 | $11.08 | Neutral | 0.95 |
| TNX | 49.44 | 70.44 | 20.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $396.24 | 43.07 | 37.0 | $402.96 | Bearish | 7.17 |
| DXY | 99.08 | 52.74 | 38.6 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $57.44 | 52.29 | 10.3 | $45.37 | Neutral | 1.08 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.489
- DIX Signal: Strong buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.71B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 33.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.5%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 55.6% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 52.3% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 33.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 29.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 26.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 25.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 11.9% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 3.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $103.93 (5d: +13.8%)
- Brent Crude: $108.95 | Spread: $5.02
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2500/gal
- Heating Oil: $5.1500/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.17/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.93
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.19
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.869 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.379 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.455 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.502 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 82.09
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.22 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,221,660.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,686,879.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.14 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $523.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $758.29)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.3% (as of 2026-09-09)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.94%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.10 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.08
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.41% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.37%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 26/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6740.6B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $883.3B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $4.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,765B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,861B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,179B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,805B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,870 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Data integrity: effr has printed the same value (3.63) for 42 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: sovereign_ath_count has printed the same value (2.0) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: sovereign_decade_high_count has printed the same value (6.0) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: jp30y_years_since_higher has printed the same value (27.0) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: uk20y_years_since_higher has printed the same value (26.66) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: us30y_1m_high has printed the same value (5.31) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: us30y_at_all_time_high has printed the same value (0.0) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: us30y_years_since_higher has printed the same value (19.18) for 5 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is daily (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: hormuz_oil_brent_price has printed the same value (96.02) for 6 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
- [WARNING] Data integrity: vix_backwardation_depth_pct has printed the same value (0.0) for 105 consecutive trading days β publish cadence is intraday (~1 trading day(s); freeze bar 5). The feed may be frozen: downstream lenses, grading, and analogues are consuming a stale copy.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.58%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): β³ Pending
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (10):
[1] Gold eyes $4,300 break as USD sticks to gains amid Fed hike bets, ahead of US CPI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-eyes-4-300-break-as-usd-sticks-to-gains-amid-fed-hike-bets-ahead-of-us-cpi-202609110345 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 03:45:50 GMT
[2] Top 3 Price Prediction: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple - BTC pullback, ETH stalls, XRP weakens URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/top-3-price-prediction-bitcoin-ethereum-ripple-btc-pullback-eth-stalls-xrp-weakens-202609110334 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 03:34:49 GMT
[3] United States Dollar Index holds onto gains above 99 ahead of US CPI data URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-holds-onto-gains-above-99-ahead-of-us-cpi-data-202609110324 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 03:24:40 GMT
[4] Gold Price Forecast: Will US CPI inflation revive XAU/USD uptrend? URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-price-forecast-will-us-cpi-inflation-revive-xau-usd-uptrend-202609110309 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 03:09:11 GMT
[5] Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips below $63.50 amid rising Fed rate hike odds URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/silver-price-forecast-xag-usd-slips-below-6350-amid-rising-fed-rate-hike-odds-202609110303 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 03:03:04 GMT
[6] BoJ set to raise interest rates by 25 bps next week - Reuters URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boj-sets-to-raise-interest-rates-by-25-bps-next-week-reuters-202609110259 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 02:59:30 GMT
[7] Australian Dollar softens to near 0.7150, US CPI inflation data looms URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-softens-to-near-07150-us-cpi-inflation-data-looms-202609110251 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 02:51:02 GMT
[8] Japan's Katayama says to maintain close communication with US on currency markets URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/japans-katayama-says-to-maintain-close-communication-with-us-on-currency-markets-202609110248 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 02:48:47 GMT
[9] Canadian Dollar struggles as oil prices decline URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-struggles-as-oil-prices-decline-202609110217 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 02:17:55 GMT
[10] New Zealand Dollar recovers from six-week low vs USD; upside seems capped ahead of US CPI URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-recovers-from-six-week-low-vs-usd-upside-seems-capped-ahead-of-us-cpi-202609110214 Published: Fri, 11 Sep 2026 02:14:05 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (3):
[1] US to sanction 'large bank' under Operation Economic Outcast on Monday Time: 2026-09-11T03:38:07.373Z
[2] Hormuz shipping traffic falls to seven vessels on Thursday - Reuters Time: 2026-09-11T02:56:33.699Z
[3] Trump says he does not regret Iran war - Fox News Time: 2026-09-11T02:21:44.300Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 195 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 3 of 60 normal daily β 5.0% of normal
- Throughput: 3.0% of normal (0.3M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 350
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS285 (+470% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost