Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-10 16:32:52 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 43% (3 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | DIX 0.479 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.14 put-heavy |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.1B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 34% β narrow participation, rally is fragile |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -0.5% neutral Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.87 normal, SPY/DXY -0.38 normal, SPY/TNX -0.47 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.51 stretched |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.8 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.75 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 26 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.8% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.71% moderate, NFCI -0.564 loose |
Divergence read: Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 63/100 (Mixed) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $103, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.479; GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.8 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Regime: low β Calm regime β balanced board
- Longs: DLR, ARWR, PFE
- Shorts: VTRS, RJF
Track Record
- AI Brief Hit Rate (decayed): 1d 13% (n=162) | 3d 38% (n=162) | 5d 33% (n=162)
- Screener Board Record: 361 closed (hit rate 46%) Β· 160 open
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $758.39 | 50 SMA $758.02 | 200 SMA $713.18 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $758.77
- QQQ: $708.88 | 50 SMA $711.17 | 200 SMA $658.90 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $712.16
- IWM: $287.74 | 50 SMA $296.74 | 200 SMA $273.27 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $295.06
- VIX: 17.84 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.944%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $758.39 | 43.46 | 15.4 | $758.77 | Bearish | 2.14 |
| QQQ | $708.88 | 50.20 | 16.0 | $712.16 | Bearish | 1.93 |
| IWM | $287.74 | 32.02 | 10.9 | $295.06 | Bearish | 4.37 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.84 | 52.48 | 22.7 | $11.08 | Neutral | 0.93 |
| TNX | 49.44 | 70.44 | 20.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $395.78 | 43.07 | 37.0 | $402.96 | Bearish | 6.84 |
| DXY | 99.11 | 53.19 | 39.2 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $57.43 | 52.29 | 10.3 | $45.37 | Neutral | 1.08 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.479
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.12B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.71% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 33.5%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 57.5%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 496
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.5%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.9%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 84.2% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 63.2% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 55.6% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 52.3% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 33.8% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 29.2% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 26.5% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 25.4% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 11.9% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 10.0% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 3.8% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $103.01 (5d: +12.8%)
- Brent Crude: $108.28 | Spread: $5.27
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.2300/gal
- Heating Oil: $5.1200/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $59.11/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.93
- UNG (Nat Gas): $10.19
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.87 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.383 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.466 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.511 | stretched |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.74
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 3,221,660.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 3,686,879.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.14 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $523.5B
- Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $758.39)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.3% (as of 2026-09-09)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.94%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.10 (Normal)
- DXY: 99.11
- Growth vs Value: 0.93
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.41% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.37%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 26/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $4.7B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,765B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,861B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,179B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,805B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $77,208 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] Key correlation regime break detected β normal market relationships are shifting, increased unpredictability.
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $103.01 β triple-digit oil, severe stagflation and margin pressure.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $103.01 β energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $158.38 (vs 20d avg 134.06, +3.4Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [WARNING] SPY (757.97) dropped below ZGL (761.10) β expect amplified downside moves.
- [INFO] SPY (757.66) reclaimed ZGL (751.30) β volatility dampening resumes.
- [INFO] Screener: 5 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-10 β SGI (conviction 70/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)); LECO (conviction 70/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)); NBIS (conviction 68/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)); ANF (conviction 68/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)); FCX (conviction 68/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: PK β promotion-ready (100d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=3039)).
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.58%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 287.928 | Prev: 285.181
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (4):
[1] Bitcoin holds steady on positive ETF flows despite short-term holders cashing in URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-holds-steady-on-positive-etf-flows-despite-short-term-holders-cashing-in-202609102028 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 20:28:59 GMT
[2] ETF Gold holdings surged to record high in August URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/etf-gold-holdings-surged-to-record-high-in-august-202609102007 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 20:07:29 GMT
[3] Debasement trade gains ground as nations reassess Dollars, bonds, and Gold [Video] URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/debasement-trade-gains-ground-as-nations-reassess-dollars-bonds-and-gold-video-202609102006 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 20:06:35 GMT
[4] Treasury department announces even bigger bond buyback; Market shrugs URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/treasury-department-announces-even-bigger-bond-buyback-market-shrugs-202609102004 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 20:04:25 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] US, E3 say Iran has blocked IAEA access to declared nuclear sites Time: 2026-09-10T20:11:36.943Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 194 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 11 of 60 normal daily β 10.0% of normal
- Throughput: 10.5% of normal (1.1M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 285
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 58.3x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS425 (+750% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $2.8 billion/day economic cost