Finance Analyst Report: 2026-09-10 10:52:12 ET
Signal Alignment
SPY Direction: SPY -0.9% (3d) | Alignment: 33% (2 aligned, 4 divergent) Status: MODERATE DIVERGENCE β Moderate divergence β several structural signals disagree with price
| Category | Signal Says | vs SPY | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dark Pool | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | DIX 0.479 moderate, 0DTE PCR 1.09 balanced |
| Gamma | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | GEX +5.1B strong suppression |
| Breadth | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Breadth 38% β narrow participation, rally is fragile |
| Energy | π΄ BEARISH | β ALIGNED | Energy RISING β oil climbing, margin pressure building |
| growth_expectations | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Copper/Gold -0.5% neutral Β· real yield 2.43% restrictive |
| Correlations | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | SPY/VIX -0.87 normal, SPY/DXY -0.36 normal, SPY/TNX -0.44 elevated, SPY/Oil -0.48 elevated |
| Volatility | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | VIX 17.4 sub-20 in contango Β· SKEW 149 firm Β· VVIX/VIX 5.66 dealer stress |
| Inflation | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Stagflation score 26 β moderate, watching |
| carry_risk | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | USD/JPY 5d -0.9% stable, MOVE 77 calm |
| Liquidity | βͺ NEUTRAL | β | Liquidity Adequate |
| Credit | π’ BULLISH | β DIVERGENT | HY OAS 2.67% moderate, NFCI -0.558 loose |
Divergence read: Cautious regime with SPY slipping, but gamma, correlations, and carry flash bullish β 4 of 6 signals refuse to confirm the decline.
Market Status
Regime: CAUTIOUS | Score: 66/100 (Mixed) | Signal-price divergence detected: 4 signals disagree with SPY's 5d trend.
Leading indicators show energy RISING (WTI at $100, watch for margin compression); DIX stable at 0.479; GEX positive at 5.1B (vol-suppressing). Lagging confirmation: VIX at 17.4 (low-fear environment); seasonal pattern historically neutral.
Screener Action Board
- Screener Action Board not available this cycle.
Track Record
- AI brief hit rate not available this cycle.
- Screener board record not available this cycle.
What Changed
- No signal changes detected.
Key Levels
- SPY: $758.74 | 50 SMA $758.02 | 200 SMA $713.18 | +0.0% from 50d | ZGL $761.79
- QQQ: $710.81 | 50 SMA $711.17 | 200 SMA $658.90 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $716.14
- IWM: $288.91 | 50 SMA $296.74 | 200 SMA $273.27 | -0.0% from 50d | ZGL $264.0
- VIX: 17.43 β sub-20 (low vol)
- 10Y Yield: 4.912%
Equity & Derivatives Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $758.74 | 43.46 | 15.4 | $761.79 | Bearish | 2.64 |
| QQQ | $710.81 | 50.20 | 16.0 | $716.14 | Bearish | 1.95 |
| IWM | $288.91 | 32.02 | 10.9 | $264.00 | Bearish | 3.91 |
Macro Board
| Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | IVR | ZGL | Ξ³-Sent | PCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 17.43 | 52.48 | 22.7 | $11.08 | Neutral | 0.97 |
| TNX | 49.12 | 70.44 | 20.8 | - | - | - |
| GLD | $399.50 | 43.07 | 37.0 | $402.99 | Bearish | 4.90 |
| DXY | 98.92 | 50.39 | 36.4 | - | - | - |
| SLV | $58.14 | 52.29 | 10.3 | $45.15 | Neutral | 0.94 |
Dark Pool Activity
- DIX (Dark Index): 0.479
- DIX Signal: Moderate buying
- GEX (Gamma Exposure): 5.12B
Credit Conditions
- HY OAS Spread: 2.67% (Normal)
- BBB Spread: 0.99%
- 2s10s Spread: 0.40% (Flat-ish)
Market Breadth
- Stocks Above 50-Day SMA: 37.6%
- Stocks Above 200-Day SMA: 58.6%
- Breadth Signal: Moderately Bearish
- Total Stocks Analyzed: 490
- Mag 7 Concentration: 32.3%
- Top 10 Concentration: 41.7%
Sector Breadth
| Sector | % > 50d SMA | Stocks |
|---|---|---|
| Energy | 94.7% | 0/0 |
| Health Care | 61.1% | 0/0 |
| Communication Services | 52.6% | 0/0 |
| Technology | 50.8% | 0/0 |
| Financials | 44.6% | 0/0 |
| Materials | 34.8% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Staples | 29.4% | 0/0 |
| Consumer Discretionary | 25.4% | 0/0 |
| Real Estate | 20.0% | 0/0 |
| Utilities | 13.8% | 0/0 |
| Industrials | 11.9% | 0/0 |
Energy & Commodities
- Energy Regime: RISING
- WTI Crude: $99.53 (5d: +9.0%)
- Brent Crude: $104.94 | Spread: $5.41
- RBOB Gasoline: $3.1600/gal
- Heating Oil: $4.8000/gal
- 3-2-1 Crack Spread: $56.15/bbl (Very wide)
- XLE (Energy Sector): $64.69
- UNG (Nat Gas): $9.98
Correlations
| Pair | 20d Corr | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| SPY / VIX | -0.867 | normal |
| SPY / DXY | -0.359 | normal |
| SPY / TNX | -0.44 | elevated |
| SPY / Oil | -0.477 | elevated |
Volatility & Options
- Volatility Regime: Contango (Normal)
- MOVE Index (Bond Vol): 76.74
- VIX/MOVE Ratio: 0.23 (Normal Relationship)
- 0DTE Call Volume: 1,103,606.0
- 0DTE Put Volume: 1,204,761.0
- 0DTE Put/Call Ratio: 1.09 (Balanced 0DTE Flow)
- 0DTE Notional Dollar Volume: $175.1B
- Gamma Call Wall: $770 | Put Wall: $760 (Spot: $758.74)
CTA Trend Stack
- SMA Stack Score: 3/4 above
- Position: Above 50,100,200d SMA(s) Β· below 20d
Positioning & Sentiment
- CFTC E-mini Specs Net: -75,941 contracts (Z +0.70, as of 2026-09-01)
- AAII Bull-Bear Spread: -1.3% (as of 2026-09-09)
- Squeeze Setup: none (0/4 triggers Β· no triggers active)
- Fragility Flags: Air Pocket elevated Β· Re-entry none
Macro Fundamentals
- 10Y Yield: 4.91%
- Yield Curve (10Y-3M): 1.08 (Normal)
- DXY: 98.92
- Growth vs Value: 0.94
- Fed Funds Rate: 3.50-3.75% | Next FOMC: 2026-09-16
- Rate Probabilities: Hold N/A | Cut N/A
Inflation Expectations
- 5Y Breakeven: 2.41% (Near Target)
- 10Y Breakeven: 2.37%
- 5Y5Y Forward: 2.33%
- Stagflation Risk Score: 26/100
Fed & Global Liquidity
- Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL): $6737.2B
- Treasury General Account (TGA): $967.9B
- Reverse Repo (RRP): $0.4B
- US Net Liquidity (WALCL - TGA - RRP): $5,769B
- Liquidity Regime: Adequate
- ECB Balance Sheet: ~$6,861B
- BOJ Balance Sheet: ~$4,179B
- Global Net Liquidity: $16,809B
- BTC-USD (Liquidity Proxy): $76,866 (Neutral)
Active Alerts
- [WARNING] SPY near gamma wall β expect increased resistance/support and potential pinning at key strike.
- [CRITICAL] WTI crude at $99.53 β energy shock territory, stagflation risk rising.
- [WARNING] Oil spike alert: USO at $154.35 (vs 20d avg 134.06, +2.8Ο), floor $75.00 β potential geopolitical disruption or supply shock.
- [WARNING] SKEW at 149 β elevated tail-risk hedging activity.
- [INFO] Screener: 5 fresh PRIMED high-conviction name(s) for 2026-09-10 β SGI (conviction 70/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)); LECO (conviction 70/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)); NBIS (conviction 68/100, range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)); ANF (conviction 68/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)); FCX (conviction 68/100, breakout_pullback, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)). Calibrated setups only; decision-support, not advice.
- [INFO] Screener: PK β promotion-ready (100d on list, HIGH conviction 62/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=3039)).
- [INFO] Screener: MUR β promotion-ready (99d on list, HIGH conviction 67/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 55% (n=185)).
- [INFO] Screener: GME β promotion-ready (84d on list, HIGH conviction 66/100, regime post_earnings_digestion, calibrated positioning_extreme hit-rate 55% (n=185)).
- [INFO] Screener: BIIB β promotion-ready (16d on list, HIGH conviction 61/100, regime breakout_pullback, calibrated distribution_top hit-rate 48% (n=3039)).
- [INFO] Screener: SGI β new HIGH-conviction candidate (conviction 70/100, regime range_noise, calibrated oversold_sympathy hit-rate 52% (n=5916)). Worth a look.
Seasonality
- Current Month: September
- Average Return: -0.58%
- Median Return: +0.30%
- Hit Rate: 55%
- Signal: Historically Neutral
Today's Events
Economic Releases:
- Producer Price Index (PPI): 284.057 | Prev: 286.279
Upcoming Calendar (30 Days)
Economic Releases:
- Consumer Price Index (CPI): 2026-09-11
- Retail Sales: 2026-09-16
- Industrial Production: 2026-09-18
- Philadelphia Fed Mfg Index: 2026-09-22
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP): 2026-09-30
- Employment Situation (Payrolls): 2026-10-02
Earnings & EPS Estimates:
- JPM (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $5.91 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GS (2026-10-13): EPS Est. $16.43 (β16.6% vs 30d)
- TSLA (2026-10-21): EPS Est. $0.45 (β0.5% vs 30d)
- MSFT (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $4.72 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- GOOGL (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $3.01 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- META (2026-10-28): EPS Est. $6.53 (β3.4% vs 30d)
- AAPL (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.98 (β0.1% vs 30d)
- AMZN (2026-10-29): EPS Est. $1.95 (β0.2% vs 30d)
- NVDA (2026-11-17): EPS Est. $2.47 (β5.3% vs 30d)
- WMT (2026-11-19): EPS Est. $0.64 (β6.8% vs 30d)
FX News Wire
Unread articles (7):
[1] Cryptocurrencies price prediction: XRP, Bitcoin & Altcoins - American Wrap 10 September URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/cryptocurrencies-price-prediction-xrp-bitcoin-altcoins-american-wrap-10-september-202609101444 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 14:44:05 GMT
[2] European Central Bank: Two more hikes remain the baseline - Nordea URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/european-central-bank-two-more-hikes-remain-the-baseline-nordea-202609101440 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 14:40:11 GMT
[3] United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change came in at 40B, above expectations (35B) in September 4 URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-eia-natural-gas-storage-change-came-in-at-40b-above-expectations-35b-in-september-4-202609101430 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 14:30:06 GMT
[4] Euro gains modestly against British Pound after ECB delivers widely expected hike URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/uro-gains-modestly-against-british-pound-after-ecb-delivers-widely-expected-hike-202609101426 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 14:26:40 GMT
[5] Canadian Dollar: Range trade with upside bias against US Dollar - Scotiabank URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/canadian-dollar-range-trade-with-upside-bias-against-us-dollar-scotiabank-202609101421 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 14:21:05 GMT
[6] Energy prices may force ECB's hand over rate hikes as bank's economic projections leave URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/energy-prices-may-force-ecbs-hand-over-rate-hikes-as-banks-economic-projections-leave-202609101416 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 14:16:47 GMT
[7] Oil prices surge as bond market sell off could wipe out Chancellor's fiscal headroom URL: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/oil-prices-surge-as-bond-market-sell-off-could-wipe-out-chancellors-fiscal-headroom-202609101415 Published: Thu, 10 Sep 2026 14:15:19 GMT
Iran War News
Updates (1):
[1] Houthis say Red Sea navigation remains safe amid military advance Time: 2026-09-10T14:28:00.000Z
Hormuz Strait Status
Hormuz Strait: no change since last report.
Strait of Hormuz Dashboard:
- Strait Status: CLOSED (since 2026-02-28, 194 days ago)
- Ships Transiting: 8 of 60 normal daily β 13.3% of normal
- Throughput: 11.7% of normal (0.0M / 10.3M DWT)
- Stranded Vessels: 400
- Oil Prices: Brent $96.02 (+6.99%)
- War Risk Insurance: EXTREME β 56.7x normal
- Tanker Rates: WS120 (+140% vs pre-crisis)
- Global Impact: 21% of world oil supply at risk; est. $4.2 billion/day economic cost